POR Portland General Electric Co.

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Portland General Electric Co. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Good morning everyone and welcome to today's conference call with Portland General Electric. Today is Thursday, October 29, 2026. This call is being recorded and all lines have been placed on mute to prevent background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer period. If you would like to ask a question during this time, press star, then the numbers 11 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. If you do intend to ask a question, please avoid the use of speaker phones. For opening remarks, I will turn the conference call over to Portland General Electric's Senior Manager of Investor Relations, Erin Schwartz. Please go ahead.
Erin Schwartz
Senior Manager of Investor Relations
Thank you, Stephen. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that we issued a press release this morning and have prepared a presentation to supplement our discussion, which we will be referencing throughout the call. The press release and slides are available on our website at investors.fortlandgeneral.com. Referring to slide two, some of our remarks this morning will constitute forward-looking statements. We caution you that such statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from our expectations. For a description of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, please refer to our press release and our most recent forms 10-K and 10-Q, which are available on our website. Turning to slide three, leading our discussion today are Maria Pope, President and CEO, and Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO. Following their prepared remarks, we will open the line for your questions. Now, I will turn things over to Maria.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Erin, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your joining us today. The third quarter was impacted by the coolest summer in a decade. Against that backdrop, we continue to execute with discipline, actively managing power costs, driving efficiencies in O&M, and identifying additional opportunities to operate more effectively across our business. Importantly, our fundamentals remain strong, with industrial demand growing 9% year-over-year, driven by continued demand from high-tech and data center customers. In fact, we concluded a significant agreement with Verus for a facility of up to 420 megawatts, which is expected to be energized in 2028 and ramped to full capacity by 2033. Now regarding the proposed holding company. The Commission issued its holding company order on September 25th. While the order approved certain aspects of the proposal, several conditions were not workable. We filed for clarification and changes to two areas. We support the proposed rate credit and customer benefits totaling $83 million. If implemented, the holding company would provide additional financial flexibility while maintaining strong customer protections and utility financial strength. That said, while very important, our growth strategy, capital plan, and current guidance do not depend on the holding company implementation. Next, I'll speak to our financial results and key drivers. This morning, we reported third-quarter GAAP net income of $119 million per diluted share and non-GAAP net income of $125 million per diluted share. Our non-GAAP results excluded business transformation, optimization, and acquisition-related expenses, which are not reflective of ongoing operational performance. The third quarter, like the year, was marked by historically mild weather. Lower cooling demand in the quarter and significantly reduced residential and small commercial energy usage. Turning to slide four for our strategic priorities. Customer growth. We continue to see strong demand from technology, semiconductor, and data center customers. Our new large loan tariff effective in July increased rates for data centers and other large customers while lowering rates for residential and small commercial customers, putting us ahead of many utilities across the country. The tariff contributed approximately $4 million of incremental margin in the third quarter and includes provisions designed to reduce risk and costs associated with serving new large loans. Essentially at CGE, growth pays for growth. We now expect approximately 12% annual capacity growth from our large load customers through 2030, up from our prior outlook of 10%. This growth is supported by customers under contract who run already energized facilities or who are actively advancing construction and facility development. As I mentioned earlier in my remarks, we have an agreement with Veris for a facility of up to 420 megawatts. It is backed by customer and shareholder protections in our new large loan tariff, including minimum payment obligations, direct cost allocation for infrastructure that will strengthen reliability across the region. The facility also includes integrated battery storage, giving us added flexibility to manage peak demand while maintaining reliability, integrating clean energy, and helping keep residential and commercial prices as low as possible. VERUS is working through the permitting processes and applications were submitted ahead of any moratoriums. Energization is expected to begin in 2028. turning to the Washington acquisition. We continue to move forward and advance the regulatory review process. We anticipate a 2027 close, or a mid-2027 close. Third quarter marked an important milestone with the successful launch of our participation in the extended day ahead market, or EJM. A market PGE helped design and develop. EDEM further advances Western energy markets, lowers costs, reduces volatility, and improves reliability. We expect EDEM to create meaningful customer value, contributing to reliability and affordability. Reflected in our 2027 AUT is 14 million of customer savings. I'm proud of the outstanding work our teams delivered to achieve this milestone. Another step forward in delivering efficient and affordable energy for our customers. Clean energy. We have executed two contracts for non-emitting projects. First, we signed a bill transfer agreement for a combined 200 megawatt solar and 250 megawatt battery storage facility at Bigelow with an anticipated investment of $900 million. Second, we've also signed a bill transfer agreement for the Salmonfly project, a combined 199 megawatt solar and 199 megawatt battery storage facility with an anticipated investment of $850 million. Salmonfly is being developed with the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs. The project supports coordinated operations of solar, and storage along with our existing and jointly owned hydroelectric facilities. Additionally, we continue to make progress on commercial negotiations for other projects from the 2025 RFP. And finally this month, we filed our 2026 clean energy plan and integrated resource plan with the commission. Turning to risk management and wildfires. Against a challenging regional wildfire season, our teams executed our risk management plans, maintained enhanced readiness, and responded proactively. We declared the end of fire season in our service territory on October 26th. We continue to execute our year-round wildfire mitigation program, including system hardening, enhanced situational awareness, and technology investments designed to improve reliability and reduce risk. Wildfire risk is a societal wide issue and we remain committed to working collaboratively with stakeholders on solutions that strengthen public safety, community resilience and an investable energy future for the Pacific Northwest. To summarize, we're seeing continued strength in customer growth This work positions us to serve our customers, support Oregon's growth, and deliver long-term value for shareholders. With that, I'll turn to slide five and our 2026 earnings guidance. As a result of weather-related headwinds, we are revising our full year adjusted earnings guidance from $3.33 to $3.53 to $3.18 to $3.28 per diluted share. We would have been solidly within our original guidance range if not for weather-related headwinds in the second half of the year. We continue to reaffirm our long-term earnings and dividend growth guidance of 5% to 7%. I'll now turn the call over to Joe to walk through our financial results in more detail. Thank you.
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Maria. Good morning, everyone. Turning to slide six, our third quarter results reflect continued execution on cost management, regulatory recovery, and industrial growth despite the mildest summer since 2016. Beginning with our load trends year over year, total retail energy deliveries decreased 3% compared to the third quarter of 2025 on a nominal basis and increased 1% on a weather-adjusted basis. We continue to see strong demand from our technology semiconductor and data center customers, with 12% annual large customer capacity growth expected through 2030. Industrial demand remained a key driver in the third quarter, increasing 5% quarter-over-quarter and 9% year-over-year. This reflects continued demand from our high-tech and data center customers. In the third quarter, we experienced one of the mildest summers in recent history. Residential deliveries decreased 8.9% on a nominal basis and were down 0.6% weather-adjusted, while commercial deliveries decreased 5.5% nominally and were down 2.8% weather-adjusted. We are updating our 2026 weather adjusted load growth guidance from 1.5% to 2.5% to 1% to 2%, primarily reflecting changes in the timing of industrial load ramp ups. Given contractual minimums, we do not expect the revised load forecast to result in meaningful changes to our 2026 revenue. Turning to our third quarter financial results. As a reminder, we provided adjusted EPS guidance of $1.20 to $1.32 per share with a midpoint of $1.26. Actual third quarter adjusted EPS was $1.06. The majority of this variance is a result of the historically mild weather. Now I'll cover the primary year-over-year earnings drivers for the quarter. A $0.07 decrease from industrial demand driven by continued growth from high-tech and data center customers. A $0.21 decrease from residential and commercial load, largely driven by the mild weather. A $0.04 benefit from power cost. This variance is comprised of a $0.14 detriment from favorable power costs in 2025 that reversed for this comparison. And an $0.18 benefit in the current period, primarily driven by the expected intra-year timing of revenue collection and power cost recognition. Quarter over quarter, there is a $0.15 weather-related EPS impact that contemplates both the decrease to revenue impact and the offsetting decrease to power cost. This is embedded within the residential and commercial load and net variable power cost variances. There was a $0.14 increase from additional cost recovery reflecting the seaside battery asset, including customer rates beginning in November 2025, and the distribution system planning recovery that began in April of 2026. A nine cent decrease from other capital and financing costs in support of our ongoing race-based investments made up of one cent of higher depreciation and amortization, seven cents for dilution and one cent of additional interest expense. and then there was a 11 cent benefit from O&M reflecting continued strong cost management and productivity improvements across the organization. On to slide seven for our five-year capital forecast which includes 2026 and 2027 spend from our 2023 RFP projects. I will note that this view does not contemplate CapEx from the recently signed Bigelow Optimization Phase 2 and Salmonfly projects or Any other ongoing resource procurement negotiations and the Washington acquisition, which are progressing as expected. Focusing on 2027 spend, when including both the recently signed projects, we have a total forecasted capital expenditures of $2.5 billion. On to slide eight for financing. We remain well positioned. We have completed the majority of our 2026 financing activity providing clear visibility to our funding need for this year. This includes $550 million of equity issued under the forward sale with $152 million drawn as of September 30th. We are moving $398 million of the planned equity draw to 2027 from 2026 while the decision on the holding company structure is pending. We have a $500 million ATM facility to further support equity needs. We also have a $350 million 24-month term loan satisfying our 2026 financing needs. And finally, our investment grade credit ratings remain unchanged. Looking ahead to our 2027 financing plans, we anticipate $350 million to $400 million of tax credit modernization and $150 million to $200 million of equity issuance. In October, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly common stock dividend of 55.125 cents per share, representing an increase of 5% on an annualized basis. We remain committed to paying a competitive dividend in line with our 60% to 70% payout target while balancing overall financing need. Our plan focuses on maintaining strong operating cash flows while supporting continued investment in customer-focused capital projects, all while advancing us towards our authorized capital structure. As we look back at our progress over the past three quarters and turn to Q4, we're proud of our disciplined execution. We are advancing management actions across operating and power costs. We remain focused on safe, reliable, and efficient operations, advancing our strategic priorities, and delivering value for our customers, communities, and shareholders. We successfully addressed the year-to-date significant weather and other load impacts in the first half of the year through management of power costs and driving efficiencies across the organization. However, given the impact of historically mild weather in the second half of the year, we are revising our adjusted earnings guidance to $3.18 to $3.28 per diluted share. We are reaffirming our long-term EPS and dividend growth guidance of 5% to 7% and our long-term load growth guidance of 3% through 2030. And now, operator, we are ready for questions.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Julianne DeMoulin-Smith of Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Julianne DeMoulin-Smith
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies
Hey, good morning, team. Nice to chat. Thanks for the time.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
Good morning.
Julianne DeMoulin-Smith
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies
Hey. So just real quickly, I saw in the 10Q this added risk disclosure. I just wanted to dig in a little bit about it, specifically setting some of these delay risks potentially. Can you clarify a little bit of what's going on with the 25 RFP, if that impacts both company-owned generation assets or PPAs, or just a little bit more context, right? Obviously, we've seen various delayed processes in the past, so it's not entirely novel to see this as a new novel risk disclosure, but again, we'd love to understand a little bit about what specifically is transpiring today.
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
I'll kick us off on this, Julian. Good morning. You know, really what you're seeing there is we're just talking that we have, there are multiple paths to procuring assets, including BTA, not just the RFP. And you see in this case that we're just exploring some alternative paths based on what are the most attractive investments. So that's the only difference here, understanding our last task was to straighten the RFP.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
Julian, let me add, first of all, I'm impressed that you're looking at our risk disclosures in the 10Q. But one of the things that I think gives us a lot of confidence in our pipeline is the Bigelow 2 project that we announced today, as well as Salmonfly. And the overall cost per kilowatt is pretty close to what we saw out of the pipeline. Thank you so much for joining us today.
Julianne DeMoulin-Smith
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies
Look, I know that OPUC staff has filed here in support of some of the clarifications on the retained earnings cap. Can you talk a little bit about some of those alternative cap calculations? And do you see that as an acceptable provision? Again, I go back to some of the caveats you guys put in the queue here about moving forward and what this might look like for reconsideration. I'll leave it open-ended.
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
I'll start us here. We continue to appreciate the dialogue from the from the staff here. And our focus is making sure that the whole co is able to function in a normal basis, meaning pay dividends and be able to finance itself. We appreciate that we don't have opposition from parties like AWEC. And I'll just leave it as we work through the math of some of these. We are open to any proposals here that, again, just allow it to operate effectively. The reason we are where we are right now is we would not have been prudent to work you forward with the design as was because it did not allow us to effectively have a holdco and protect our shareholders and dividends.
Julianne DeMoulin-Smith
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies
Got it. Excellent. Just lastly here on the credit rating side, and obviously this ends up being fairly binary in terms of what exactly happens in terms of notch thresholds, but given the financing benefits, Is the one-notch threshold like a red line that if the commission doesn't amend it, you know, you guys wouldn't proceed with the hold count? Again, I'm just curious on the relationship between the rating side and your decision to move forward, again, if I can tell those two.
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
As it relates to the proposal, the order out there on the hold count as it is. both the one-notch provision within the holdco agreement and the dividend restrictions are both red lines. I mean, that is why we responded to where we are. As it relates specifically to the rating agencies, we continue to be in dialogue with them. We keep them apprised and we are working through different scenarios with them as it relates to us adapting to whatever the next proposed holdco orders.
Julianne DeMoulin-Smith
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies
Got it. All right. Awesome. And anything on wildfires here that you'd offer up in as much as we saw a lot happen in California? I don't know if there's anything that you'd flag for your upcoming session or maybe not. Again, maybe a catch-all.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
No, thanks, Julian. First of all, I think it's against the backdrop of a tough season overall in the state of Oregon as well as across the country with regards to wildfires. And, you know, as I noted in my prepared remarks earlier, Our team did really well. We did turn the power off a number of times and actively monitored for one of the longest IMT runs that we've had in the history of our company. Clearly, wildfire smoke is an issue for Oregon. The damage and destruction, most of which is in the U.S. Forest Service lands or BLM lands. but also for the overall health of the economy of the state. And so you can see in the Oregon business plan in the governor's prosperity reports and council work, a lot of focus on how to address this issue. We're looking forward to seeing the report that the PUC has commissioned. It's not out yet. I would expect it to be out in the next couple of weeks. and that should create a foundation for some of the legislative work we can do this session. We're closely monitoring what's going on in California and particularly the findings from on wildfire that's in the California earthquake report done earlier this year.
Julianne DeMoulin-Smith
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies
Excellent guys. Thank you. Speak soon.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Julie.
Greg Orrell
Equity Research Analyst, UBS
Thank you.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Char Perez of Wells Fargo Securities. The line is now open. Hey, guys.
Char Perez
Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities
Morning. Morning, Char. Morning. Just real quick on the whole code. Just on the petition, I mean, AWAC came in not opposing your changes to conditions 25 and 26. Are you seeing similar alignment from staff and CUB? And is the resolution... before the December 7th acceptance date, the base case, or should we think of this sliding into 27 with the shareholder vote?
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
Oh, that's a good question. You know, we're continuing to work through the process. The commission should come out pretty soon with their decision, and we're monitoring and working through all of the different aspects.
Char Perez
Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities
Okay, got it. Thanks, Maria. And then just Just on Big Blue and the Salmonfly bill transfers, that's $1.75 billion that sits outside of the plan, mostly $27-28. How should we think about the equity content there? Is it roughly 50-50 with the $500 million ATM covering it, or does the whole co-outcome change how you finance it? Thanks.
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
So I'll start with our guidance. When we talk to both our 5% to 7%, when we talk to our equity plan here, we are always viewing this without the holdco in the first place. So our growth rates and the affirmations we made previously were exclusive to holdco. So we do think, when we think to the financing of these two projects specifically, we start with the tax credit that we'll receive from the 2023 RFP. We disclosed here earlier on the call somewhere between 350 or 400 million of tax credits that will come from the 23 RFPs. Then we'll look to... The debt to finance, our draw from the 25 forward, which we had almost 400 million left. And then we have a minimal new equity. I think when you look to our equity guidance here, we have our equity for 2027, even inclusive of these projects is increased by about $50 million from our prior disclosure.
Char Perez
Equity Research Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities
Got it. Perfect. Appreciate it, guys. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleischman of Wolf Research. Your line is now open.
Steve Fleischman
Equity Research Analyst, Wolfe Research
Yeah, thanks. Just clarity on, you said you'll hear from the commission in the near future. Any more specifics on likely timing and which of these different options they, you know, clarification, you know, which direction, just anything?
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
The outside date is December 7th when we would expect to hear from them. So I would assume that we'll go all the way to December 7th. Given that we had a month-long, year-and-a-half-long process and a negotiated settlement, so there's a lot of testimony on the record, a lot of expert statements, my hope is that they are looking at the record and working through the process, and they'll come out with a decision on December 7th. So we'll know more then.
Steve Fleischman
Equity Research Analyst, Wolfe Research
One other question on that. So in the scenario where they do fix those two conditions appropriately, how are you thinking about the fact that kind of they left double leverage kind of open in the order for a future rate case? And just is that an acceptable risk as part of this?
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
You know, I think, Steve, we've looked at that from sort of the norm across the country, and it's not something that is always excluded from other holding companies. And so it's a risk that is typical of some other utilities, and we would expect to work through it. We're also moving towards five-year rate cases. And so I think that the five-year rate case system in the future will create more certainty for investors as we move forward.
Steve Fleischman
Equity Research Analyst, Wolfe Research
That's helpful. Thank you.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Ellinghaus of Cyber William Shank. Your line is now open.
Chris Ellinghaus
Equity Research Analyst, Siebert Williams Shank
Hey, good morning, everybody. So, vis-a-vis the whole code decision, have you had any ways to get a sense of whether, you know, the two key elements sort of in dispute were errors on the part of the commission in haste of trying to make adjustments to the settlement or those were intentional.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
You know, I don't think we have a comment on that. We can't have any ex parte communications during this period of time with the decision outstanding. And so we submitted what we thought were clear and pretty minimal recommendations in our clarification here. filed a number of weeks ago and tried to make that as workable as possible given all of the discussions over the prior months and the settlement that we had previously had with staff.
Chris Ellinghaus
Equity Research Analyst, Siebert Williams Shank
So obviously the settlement was very detailed and really gave the Commission a pretty good roadmap for this, but they decided to deviate. Do you think that they understand The impact that that has on investors and how that affects cost of capital when they do things like that?
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
I'll chime in. I mean, that's the point of the clarification and honestly the point of our communications. Clearly, the material included within the staff addressed that. However, we will work through the record here to hope that they have that clarity. Obviously, for us, as you know, that is what's And so, you know, we need to make sure they appreciate that it's a critical structure for it all to come together.
Chris Ellinghaus
Equity Research Analyst, Siebert Williams Shank
Okay. Joe, some of the numbers that you quoted were kind of interesting in the absolutes versus the weather adjusted load numbers. It seems like maybe There might be some other factor because like the residential, you know, the weather adjusted was still lower and total retail sales weren't up that much on a weather adjusted basis either. So is there another factor at play that you can identify that might be dampening load for the quarter beyond the weather?
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
For the quarter, just for the quarter, when we think of residential, we were at 0.6 on a weather adjusted. But I would agree with you on a year-to-date basis, Chris, as you may recall in the first quarter, we had some unusual load trends that we addressed through our plans. And we do agree that there were some unusual load patterns. So when you look to year-to-date results, those patterns obviously still hold. However, as we revised and looked through the third quarter, which is obviously one of our largest load quarters, After adjusting out weather on the residential side, it was pretty darn close.
Chris Ellinghaus
Equity Research Analyst, Siebert Williams Shank
Okay.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
Chris, let me add one other comment. One of the great things about the UM 2377 large load tariff is that there's essentially a take or pay. So we have pretty significant capacity payments, which positively impacted the bottom line, but we had some lower energy usage from a couple of the data center customers. The data center customer energy uses could be kind of choppy at times.
Chris Ellinghaus
Equity Research Analyst, Siebert Williams Shank
That reminds me, Maria. I meant to ask, have you got any rule of thumb or any thoughts in terms of, you know, when you do have some extremes on the weather side, how that will affect the data centers or large load customers in general that ambient temperatures really might have an impact on on their cooling needs. And did you see any of that in this quarter at all?
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
I'll respond to it. So clearly, the data centers have less of a weather sensitivity. You did see a small weather. To your question, to date, we haven't shown that. I believe we have seen their weather differences in a couple percentage points, obviously, where you see the residential side acting much more extreme. I agree. We can reflect, too, as we work. to our guidance going forward is, you know, potentially as this class becomes more significant, try to give the differing sensitivities, because it is, you're right, as we go through this, the residential class, even the small commercial class, react much more significantly to weather than these classes that are much more installed. You know, they're already insulated, right? They already have, they're trying to be as efficient as possible, even without the external factors.
Chris Ellinghaus
Equity Research Analyst, Siebert Williams Shank
And lastly, have you got any updates on your expected timing of 20-25 Resources.
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
So if we're talking to the 20-25 RFP, we have the two projects obviously we just announced here. The timing for these projects as we're trying to work through tax credits have in-service dates and they have a little bit of different in-service dates in 20-29. We do continue to work other items on the RFP shortlist that we published at the beginning of the year as we continue to work to fill what we believe is the bucket to serve the system reliably.
Julianne DeMoulin-Smith
Equity Research Analyst, Jefferies
Okay, thanks. Appreciate it.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Aiden Kelly of JP Morgan. Your line is now open.
Aiden Kelly
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan
Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for the time today.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Morning.
Aiden Kelly
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan
I guess just picking up on the Holdco or the hypothetical lack thereof scenario, could you just walk through how you would finance the Washington acquisition under the existing structure? I guess the question is, do you see this changing the calculus of your CapEx, or do you more look to backfill with more equity in that scenario?
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
I think to your comment, without a hold code, I'll start with, we had said that with a hold code that Washington would be accretive in the first full year. Our goal without a hold code would be to be at least a break even to a slight accretion in its first full year. We would expect that we would not be impacting the capital at our PGE side, but we would be financing this at a balanced cap structure as it relates to that structure, assuming, again, no hold-up.
Aiden Kelly
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan
Great. That's super helpful. And then maybe just picking up on the Washington utility acquisition, could you just characterize where staff or stakeholders' concerns are most substantive today? and maybe what incremental commitments you believe might be necessary to reach a settlement in Washington at this time.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
Sure. So first of all, the process is going really well and we're moving through a lot of important conversations. There's three main areas that have been raised. The first one is CETA compliance, which is their clean energy compliance in the state of Washington. The second is the hydro facility that is not included in the transaction. That's facilities that are on the Lewis River off of Mount St. Helens. and then third is the rate credit for customers.
Aiden Kelly
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan
Great. Thanks for the time today. I'll leave it there.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. Thank you.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crado of Mizuho. Your line is now open.
Anthony Crado
Equity Research Analyst, Mizuho
Hey, thanks so much. Good morning, team. I just wanted to follow up on Chris's question and maybe two people ago. Just on the capital plan and I think the higher cost of equity, Just without the holding company or if it's still not determined yet, are there any changes to your capital program just as given the higher cost of equity that maybe you guys would have to readdress the capital plan that's out there? And I have a follow-up.
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
Thank you for your question. At this time, there really isn't a change to the capital plan. As I mentioned, the additional financing costs for the RFP projects as they were added thanks to the ability to monetize the tax credits from 2023 have a negligible or slight impact on our on our equity plan. And we believe, you know, we continue to be able to support our 5% to 7% growth, you know, with our current financings and without a hold cut. So right now, I don't think now is the time really to debate any changes to the capital.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
We agree that with our current stock price and not having a holding company creates challenges, especially given Oregon's specific clean energy goals. As Stu noted, near term, we have levers from the tax credits, our solid balance sheet, being able to draw on equity forward, as well as other mechanisms. So we're really focused on working through the process. to hopefully come to a solid resolution that works for everyone on the holding company.
Anthony Crado
Equity Research Analyst, Mizuho
Okay, and then just more of a modeling question. Just, you know, most of the calls here this cycle, we've been talking about maybe a spread between rate-based growth and maybe earnings growth or earnings per share CAGR. I'm just curious, what do you think the ranges are? What's a good modeling assumption to use for, you know, go from rate-based growth to earnings growth for Portland?
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
You know, I don't think, I don't have an update yet. I mean, we will look to that as we work to the 2027 guidance. I mean, I think, you know, this spread will hold for the moment until we formalize and layer in everything as it relates to 2027.
Anthony Crado
Equity Research Analyst, Mizuho
Great. Thanks so much. Catch you guys at DEI. Thank you.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Greg Orrell of UPS. Your line is now open.
Greg Orrell
Equity Research Analyst, UBS
Hey, good morning. Thank you. Maybe just some housekeeping around the CapEx plan and the Bigelow and Salmonfly projects were signed on in October. Was that the reason why you didn't include them in the $7.4 billion CapEx plan?
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
That's right, Greg, not to do the sort of accounting or disclosures. We've always had our CapEx table that we use in the investor materials align with the liquidity and capital resources footnote in the 10Q. The 10Q is in as of date. So we've tried to hopefully put some pretty adequate disclosures both in the investor deck as well as in the 10Q to layer that through. I mean, that is the only reason is because both agreements have effective dates within the last couple of days here.
Greg Orrell
Equity Research Analyst, UBS
And are you providing any guidance around how those projects would impact the EPS growth rate guidance?
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
For right now, obviously we've given guidance on the equity financing plan and we've affirmed our five to seven for right now. So at the moment, what we've historically said here, which aligns is that in years of meaningful RFPs, we expect to achieve a growth rate at our midpoint, generally at our midpoint or better here. And these RFP projects don't change that.
Greg Orrell
Equity Research Analyst, UBS
Thank you. Appreciate it.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Rold of B of A. Your line is now open.
David Rold
Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America
Hey, thanks for taking the question. Just looking at the 4Q implied guide, wondering if you could help us bridge a little better how you get there just with a little more granularity. In other words, if we took your slide six and rolled it forward a quarter comparing last year, to last year or even to 2024, what are the puts and takes you'd flag that kind of ground your confidence in the Q4 number for this year, just given it's such a meaningful step up from recent quarters?
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
Okay, sorry, sorry, I didn't mean to talk too soon.
Aiden Kelly
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan
Good morning.
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
You know, I always love the roll forward questions where I get to just put the numbers in the air here. But so yeah, there's a meaningful change from last fourth quarter to this fourth quarter. Just as a reminder, last year had a pretty, there was a pretty material weather effect in the fourth quarter, mainly in December. So when you think of the biggest, the biggest puts and takes are weather, right? You know, weather normal assumptions. So that in of itself is is 17 cents. The timing of the DS, so the distribution system planning recovery and Seaside was only a partial quarter last time. So the DSP and Seaside will drive that. We have a change or a more favorable move on net variable power costs. We have additional cost management. And then the last one is just the mechanical timing of the way the costs roll through the AUT. But when you take this, the super majority of the variance between when you look fourth quarter last year to what we would anticipate fourth quarter to be this year is in margin. There's a little bit in the O&M management side, but the majority is these margin items that I laid out here, plus some O&M favorability.
David Rold
Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America
Okay, great. Thank you.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of J.C. Vidalas of Leidenberg, Thelman & Company. Your line is now open.
J.C. Vidalas
Equity Research Analyst, Ladenburg Thalmann
Hi, good morning. Just a quick clarification. If the Commission were to take action consistent with staff's recommendations that they put out on the 22nd, would that be enough to accept The Commission's order if they kind of go ahead and approve staff recommendations or would you not be or would you consider that an unacceptable recommendation?
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
If we took the recommendations with the one-notch credit downgrade before dividends stopped, we would not be able to accept that. That's not a one-notch. As you all know, it occurs sometimes for the sector as a whole through ordinary course of business. And to have an ordinary course of business item risk dividends is not something that we're willing to accept whatsoever.
J.C. Vidalas
Equity Research Analyst, Ladenburg Thalmann
Okay, great. And then just on the... On the Washington portion, I believe the utility is somewhat earning around the mid single digits. I mean, do you think that's enough to make it either break even or be slightly accretive if there is no hold call?
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
So I think so. I think I mentioned a little earlier here. Obviously, our plan here, we said it would be accretive in the first full year with a hold co. Our comment was that that transaction does not need a hold co, which we fully support. We said it would take a little while longer to be accretive without a hold co. However, as we continue to work forward, our goal is in the first full year of hold Okay, and then just along those lines, I mean, if it closes mid-2027, when would you suspect you would be going in for your first rate case in Washington? I want to, we're still evaluating when that would be. I think when we would go in for a rate case would potentially even be part of this agreement. So I don't have an exact date at this point in time.
Greg Orrell
Equity Research Analyst, UBS
Okay, great. Thank you. See you all at EEI.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you'll need to press star 11 on your telephone. Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller of Morning Star, Inc. Your line is now open.
Travis Miller
Equity Research Analyst, Morningstar
Hi, everyone. Thank you. Quick modeling question here. The large load tariff, what is or will be the impact either from a net revenue and or earnings for either the rest of the year or next year?
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
Okay. Good morning. So I'll start. Maria may add on this one. So for the third quarter, the first quarter, the large load tariff has been in effect. I believe we disclosed it's around $4 million. We think for the second half of the year, potentially that same, if not a little bit more. And then next year, as we work through, obviously we haven't given guidance. There's no reason to think that those types of numbers wouldn't occur for the first part of the year. But just as a reminder, all of this gets rolled into a rate case. One of the more Important factors for the large load tariff as much as we talk about the additional charging and the balancing to the data centers is the residential customers also did experience a little bit of a rate creditor reduction around 1% here that came through starting at that same period of time.
Travis Miller
Equity Research Analyst, Morningstar
Okay, perfect. And then higher level question for your system as you look at it today in terms of energy coming from renewables and then the need for capacity and particularly clean. Should we expect most of the incremental projects to come with some type of battery solution? Again, just given the balance between energy and capacity that's on your system now.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
That's a great question. We have been very fortunate to be out front in implementing battery storage, and it's a really important part of our reliability mix today. Being able to add batteries to existing renewable facilities as well as with additional renewables enables us to better leverage existing transmission through the system and really create positive synergies. We would expect to continue to add batteries. The more you add, you get to a little bit of diminishing returns. One of the things that we as part of U of 2377 and all of our large load work is the capacity that many of those customers bring. So as I noted, Veris is bringing battery storage to their project and we have other data centers that do the same thing. So we also are watching very closely the run-up in battery storage prices and are fortunate to have as much in construction and moving forward at the prior pricing.
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
I do think just as a numbers part, which is interesting, when we work through these 2025 RFP and PPAs that are out there from the others, we We will have batteries on the system well in excess of 1,000 megawatts on a system with a peak load of somewhere around 4,500 megawatts right now. Even now, as we have some standalone batteries, it's a pretty impressive battery population relative to the overall system.
Travis Miller
Equity Research Analyst, Morningstar
Yeah, that's great. Those are big numbers relative. Okay, that's all they need. Thanks so much.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont of Lindenburg-Dahlman. Please go ahead.
Steve Fleischman
Equity Research Analyst, Wolfe Research
Hey, thanks.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
Just curious what your plans are for your ownership interest in Cold Strip. Are you still planning to exit ownership of the plan in 2028?
Joe Trpik
Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer
Good morning, Paul. How are you? So Coal Strip, we continue to own Coal Strip and our interest. We do not currently have a disposition plan for Coal Strip. We do know that under current Oregon law that the electrons related to Coal Strip or the power coming from coal generation is not to be served for retail load, at least as currently written. We just concurrent to work with all the constituents on what is the best So would you consider continued ownership of the plan if you couldn't sell to retail customers? We honestly will have to work with the regulators. I think it'll be just an interesting dialogue to have considering the status of the law and the ownership interest. But we're open to work with them. Obviously, it is inexpensive energy, but by view of Oregon, it is not clean energy. But we are open to work through many different scenarios on how to resolve our structure with Coal Strip.
Greg Orrell
Equity Research Analyst, UBS
Great, thank you.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Maria for closing remarks.
Maria Pope
President and Chief Executive Officer
Great, thank you very much. Clearly, as we've discussed this morning, a lot of work to continue to be doing on the holding company structure. But as we've also noted, we've taken up our growth rate from our data centers from 10 to 12%, underpinned by really positive results from our large load tariff. We have two exciting RFP projects that are moving forward, offsetting some of the other reductions in capital for this year. And then as we look at O&M, we've exceeded our goals, solid operating performances, As well as through the day head market, we're seeing great results on the power cost side. We appreciate your time this morning and we look forward to seeing you all at EEI in a couple of weeks. Thank you.
Stephen
Conference Call Operator
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.