RSG Republic Services, Inc.
$236.28
Republic Services, Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Conference Call Analysis
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Conference Call Operator
Good afternoon and welcome to the Republic Services Third Quarter 2026 Investor Conference Call. Republic Services is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RSG. All participants in today's call will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Good afternoon. I would like to welcome everyone to Republic Services' third quarter 2026 conference call.
Amanda Hodges
Vice President, Investor Relations
Jon Vander Ark, our CEO, and Brian DelGhiaccio, our CFO, are on the call today to discuss our performance. I'd like to take a moment to remind everyone that some information we discuss on today's call contains forward-looking statements, including forward-looking financial information, which involve risks and uncertainties, and may be materially different from actual results. Our SEC filings discuss factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. The material that we discuss today is time-sensitive, If, in the future, you listen to a rebroadcast or recording of this conference call, you should be sensitive to the date of the original call, which is October 29, 2026. Please note that this call is the property of Republic Services, Inc. Any redistribution, retransmission, or rebroadcast of this call in any form without the express written consent of Republic Services is strictly prohibited. Our SEC filings, our earnings press release, which includes gap reconciliation tables and a discussion of business activities, along with a recording of this call, are available on Republic's website at republicservices.com. In addition, Republic's management team routinely participates in investor conferences. When events are scheduled, the dates, times, and presentations are posted on our investor website. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jon.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Jon.
Amanda Hodges
Vice President, Investor Relations
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
We delivered another strong quarter of results driven by disciplined pricing and improving volume trends while successfully overcoming elevated diesel fuel costs. Positive momentum across the business included profitable growth in environmental solutions, underscores the strength and resilience of our business model and our ability to capitalize on improving record economic trends. Our results reflect our continued focus on pricing ahead of cost inflation and effective cost management, while making strategic investments that strengthen our competitive advantages and position us to deliver sustainable growth and long-term shareholder value. During the quarter, we achieved revenue growth of 8.2%, increased adjusted EBITDA 4.8%, delivered adjusted earnings per share of $1.94, and generated year-to-date adjusted free cash flow of $2.28 billion. With respect to customer zeal, Our commitment to deliver world-class essential services continues to drive organic growth and strengthen customer satisfaction. Customer retention remained high at more than 94%. Customers value the quality and breadth of our services, which extends continued loyalty and supports our ability to earn attractive returns for the value of the services we provide. Strong pricing across the business remained the primary driver of organic revenue growth during the third quarter. Core price on related revenues was 6.3%, which was relatively consistent with our second quarter performance. Combined with higher fuel recovery fees, the price increase was over 8%. Average yield on related revenues was 3.5% and continued to exceed our internal cost inflation. The sequential moderation in average yield was primarily due to better-than-expected volumes in our small and large container businesses, which included an increase in service levels. Service increases are profitable in increased route density, but typically have a dilutive impact on average yield. Organic volume decreased 70 basis points on related revenue and were positive 20 basis points after adjusting for one-time landfill event volumes received in the prior year. Importantly, volume of both small and large container businesses increased 50 basis points. This marks the first time in more than three years that both businesses generated positive volume growth at the same time. Organic revenue in the environmental solutions business increased 21% compared to the prior year and contributed 2.1% to total company revenue growth in the third quarter. Revenue growth in this business was driven by a few large emergency response jobs. Revenue grew in this segment by approximately 9% excluding these jobs. We continue to see strong demand for our environmental solutions customers and expect positive revenue growth to continue through the rest of the year and into 2027. Turning to digital, we continue to advance our technology and AI initiatives to improve pricing effectiveness, extend customer attention, and increase labor productivity. AI-enabled pricing technology is now deployed across the business providing enhanced insights to support pricing decisions that reflect service requirements and market conditions. These enhanced capabilities are designed to better reflect customer needs and support long-term revenue retention. We continue to pilot our new AI-enhanced routing platform to improve service execution, gain route efficiencies, and reduce disposal costs. This new technology combines AI capabilities with advanced routing algorithms to optimize every aspect of our routing logistics. Full-scale deployment is expected to begin early next year. And with respect to our call centers, digital tools are transforming how we manage 11 million inbound calls each year. We believe that over time, more than half of these calls can be eliminated or handled through a lower cost channel. This enables faster resolution and a more seamless customer experience. Moving on to sustainability. Construction of our third polymer center in Allentown, Pennsylvania remains on track, with commissioning planned for early next year. Our renewable natural gas projects with our partners continue to make progress. We are on track to complete two additional RNG projects by year end, which would bring the total project additions for the year to four. We continue to electrify our fleet. During the quarter, we launched Florida's first fully electric residential recycling and waste collection fleet in the city of Coconut Creek. We ended the third quarter with more than 280 electric collection vehicles in operation across our business. We remain on track to finish the year with more than 300 EV trucks as we continue to grow this differentiated offering. We strive to be the employer where the best people want to work. Employee engagement remains high and turnover is at a record low. We were recently named one of 3BL's 100 Best Corporate Citizens and earned Great Place to Work certification for the 10th consecutive year. With respect to capital allocation, we invested $1.1 billion in value-creating acquisitions so far this year. We expect to finish 2026 with at least $1.2 billion in acquisition investments. Looking ahead, our acquisition pipeline remains active across both recycling and waste and environmental solutions. Year-to-date, we returned $1.43 billion to shareholders, including $884 million of share purchases and $577 million of dividends. I will now turn the call over to Brian, who will provide more details on the quarter. Thanks, Jon.
Brian DelGhiaccio
Chief Financial Officer
Core price on total revenue was 5.3%. Core price on related revenue was 6.3%, which included open market pricing of 7.6% and restricted pricing of 4.1%. The components of core price on related revenue included small container of 8%, large container of 7%, and residential of 5.8%. Average yield on total revenue was 2.9%, and average yield on related revenue was 3.5%. The 50 basis points sequential decline in yield on related revenue was primarily driven by increased unit growth in our small and large container businesses. Fuel recovery fees increased total revenue by 1.8%, which offset higher fuel expense and related surcharges. Third quarter volume decreased total revenue by 60 basis points and related revenue by 70 basis points. The decline was driven by a 90 basis point headwind from event-driven landfill volumes received in the prior year. The rest of the business increased 20 basis points on a year-over-year basis. The details of volume performance during the quarter included a 50 basis point increase in small container volume driven by net new business and increased service levels by our same store customers, a 50 basis point increase in large container volume primarily due to increased service levels, and a 6.4% increase in special waste revenue. This was more than offset by residential volume which declined 4.3% primarily due to certain municipal contract losses and reduction in construction and demolition landfill volume, which related to the previously mentioned event work in the prior year. Moving on to recycling. Commodity prices were $142 per ton during the third quarter, compared with $126 per ton in the prior year. Recycling processing and commodity sales increased $15 million during the quarter, driven by higher polymer center volumes and recycled commodity prices. With respect to environmental solutions, third quarter revenue increased $96 million compared to the prior year. Environmental solutions revenue increased 21% compared to same store revenue in the prior year and contributed 2.1% to total company revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the environmental solutions business was 25.4%, which represented 440 basis points of margin expansion compared to the prior year. Total company adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.8%. Margin performance during the quarter included a 50 basis point decrease from net fuel, a 40 basis point decrease from landfill event volumes received in the prior year, and a 60 basis point decrease from elevated health care costs. This was comprised of 20 basis points from a prior year rebate that did not repeat and 40 basis points from above average large claims activity. Healthcare claims activity returned to more normal levels in the month of October. The rest of the business expanded margin by 50 basis points, which was in line with our expectations. Year-to-date adjusted free cash flow was $2.28 billion, driven primarily by EBITDA growth in the business. Total debt was approximately $14.2 billion, and total liquidity was $2.3 billion. We ended the quarter with a leverage ratio of approximately 2.6 times. With respect to taxes, our combined tax rate and impact from equity investments in renewable energy resulted in an equivalent tax impact of 21.7% during the quarter. For the full year, we expect an equivalent tax impact of approximately 24%. I will now turn the call back over to Jon. Thanks, Brian.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
Based on results to date and our outlook for the remainder of the year, We updated our full year 2026 financial guidance as follows. Revenue is now expected to be in the range of $17.425 billion to $17.475 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of $5.5 billion to $5.575 billion. And adjusted pre-cash flow is expected to be in the range of $2.565 billion to $2.585 billion. Thank you for joining us. is that our long-term growth algorithm is intact. This calls for consistently delivering mid-single-digit revenue growth while growing EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow even faster than revenue. This is designed to drive 30 to 50 basis points of annual EBITDA margin expansion. Our perspective is supported by continued disciplined pricing, improving volume trends, and the momentum building in our environmental solutions business. Benefits from investments in digital capabilities and sustainability innovation should further support profitable growth and continued value creation. We plan to provide 2027 guidance on our earnings call in February. With that, operator, I would like to open the call to questions.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your touch-tone phone. In the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up question today. If your question has been answered and you would like to withdraw your request, you may do so by pressing star then two. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. Your first question today comes from Sabahat Khan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Sabahat Khan
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Great. Thanks and good afternoon. I'm hoping to provide a little bit more color on the ES segment and the evolution there. I think last quarter you alluded to sort of the incremental getting better and some upside momentum through H2. Maybe just talk about what materialized through Q3 in that silo on the top line and the margin progression and sort of what's embedded for Q4. Thanks.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think we talked about at the outset of the year that the first half was going to be tougher and we saw an inflection point and momentum increase. and Elyse Carlsen. I think that's a function of the underlying industrial economy continuing to improve and then I think our team executing at a high level.
Sabahat Khan
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Great and then just for a follow-up commentary around volumes getting a little bit better you know not asking for guidance on 27 but as you think about the mid single digits do expect at least year-over-year volume trends just sort of across your platform based on what you're seeing that to be a bit more positive sequentially just maybe If you can break out some of the puts and takes you're seeing on the volume front across your business. Thank you.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think the industry recycling waste is coming out of a four-year period of really negative growth. And environmental solutions is coming out of an 18-month period where I think it was kind of in an air pocket in volume. I think both markets are now trending in a good direction. I think recycling and waste will tip to positive growth in 2027 across the industry and will certainly increase. You know, try to match that or do a little better than that performance. And Environmental Solutions will be on a nice growth trajectory. And again, we'll try to match market or do a little bit better than that from a volume standpoint.
Unknown
Brief analyst acknowledgements
Thank you.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from Brian Bergmeier with Citi. Please go ahead.
Brian Bergmeier
Analyst, Citi
Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe just on the updated EBITDA outlook for 2026, just curious if you could help us bridge that a little bit. I guess, you know, you're going to have a little bit of help from commodities, a little bit of M&A. Not sure if, you know, ESB in the quarter versus your model or if it was in line. Just any detail on the improved outlook there.
Brian DelGhiaccio
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I'll give you both pieces when you take a look at our guide that we updated in July compared to the guide that we just recently updated. So at the midpoint, revenue is up about $200 million on the revenue, and $150 of that or so is related to fuel fees. $50 million is related to environmental solutions. Most of that has already occurred with those handful of large emergency response jobs that we called out. With respect to the EBITDA, we're expecting some contribution from fuel fees, call it in the $10 million zip code, in part just because we saw the big spike in fuel costs in the month of September. They moved from the kind of mid $5 a gallon up to $6.50 or so in September. So we expect our fuel recovery fee to catch up early in the fourth quarter. and about $15 million of the contribution from that $50 million on environmental solutions will positively impact EBITDA. And that's how you go from the previous guidance to approximately $25 million of incremental EBITDA at the midpoint.
Brian Bergmeier
Analyst, Citi
Got it. Got it. Really appreciate that detail. And then one follow-up for me, just going back to ES. You know, I suppose it'll always be a bit of a lumpy business, just given the nature of the work I'm just curious if you could try to frame what you think is maybe a sustainable level of margins. We've covered a lot of ground this year from high teens to mid-20s. I'm just curious about how you think about the sustainability of the 3Q performance and a sustainable margin level. Thanks. I'll turn it over.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
We talked about expanding the business 30 to 50 basis points. We'll try to match that or beat that margin expansion within ES. We think there's a lot of Thank you for joining us. I think there's a lot of opportunity to price for the value we deliver over time, and I think you're going to see steady progress on that in the years to come.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from Noah Kay with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Noah Kay / Seth Weber
Analyst, Oppenheimer / BNP Paribas
Hey, thanks for taking the questions, guys. Getting some questions on the yield dynamics you called out as it relates to volume. Can you maybe just give us a little bit more of an explanation? Because it sounds like you're picking up new business. You're seeing volume growth. Your same store price is good, but there's just some business coming on at a lower starting price. So... Any more nuance to it than that, or is this something that we should be expecting in coming quarters if we continue to see volumes improve?
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
I'd say that when the business expands, that's either through service increases at existing customers or taking on new customers, you are almost always going to take on those units that are profitable, but they're below the average rate. That's the nature of our subscription-based business and the recurring revenue business. Thank you for joining us. outside of that you see margin expansion so we'd expect that yield number going forward to you know probably trend slightly up but certainly the margin expansion to flow through because those units certainly contribute are profitable and they come into the system.
Noah Kay / Seth Weber
Analyst, Oppenheimer / BNP Paribas
Yeah makes sense and look I mean all things considered you know for the business your size whatever it is you know 18 to 20 million higher is not a massive number but you know the health care costs Spike, what was noticeable enough for you to call it out? I guess, you know, are there any other elements that, you know, maybe you call out as unusual for the balance of the year? You know, you mentioned that as a rebate, I know that there have been some true-ups in the industry around, you know, risk management, accruals. Is there anything we should be thinking about for 4Q?
Brian DelGhiaccio
Chief Financial Officer
Nothing significant when you take a look at our prior period results. It was fairly straightforward, and that's what we're anticipating for this fourth quarter, and that's what's included in the guide.
Unknown
Brief analyst acknowledgements
Great. Thank you, guys.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from Tony Kaplan with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yehuda Silverman
Analyst, Morgan Stanley (on behalf of Tony Kaplan)
Hi, this is Yehuda Silverman on for Tony Kaplan. Just a quick one on market health. I think I heard you mention earlier in the call that combined price and higher fuel recovery fee was about over 8%. Just curious if you could discuss the customer receptivity to pricing and how that's evolved, particularly in an environment where it seems that this elevated fuel price and broader inflationary pressure might be here for a bit longer.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
We certainly look at what the bill of the customer is going to receive, and affordability is a very popular Right now, we're mindful of that. This is where our tools really help us to understand the lifetime value of that customer. And we want to run the business forever, not maximize any type of in-year pricing or in-year return on that. So I'd say on the margin, that probably caused us to back off slightly on pricing, which we would have otherwise priced. But in terms of the core price and what you're seeing in the metrics, really positive in terms of receptivity and Again, I think the benefit of our tools is we're getting that price right and that customer is staying with us.
Yehuda Silverman
Analyst, Morgan Stanley (on behalf of Tony Kaplan)
Got it. And just one quick one on the cost side, that labor and related benefit increased year over year a bit. Is that where the health care one time came in there or some of the costs you saw step up?
Brian DelGhiaccio
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, that's where most of it would be is in that labor category.
Yehuda Silverman
Analyst, Morgan Stanley (on behalf of Tony Kaplan)
Great. Thank you.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from Jerry Revich. with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Jerry Revich
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Yes, hi. Good afternoon and good evening, everyone. I want to ask on the AI part of the conversation, in your prepared remarks, you folks spoke about some interesting pricing tools and opportunity to reduce the phone operator costs. Can we just talk about over what period of time do you think we'll see a meaningful impact on numbers? How long will some of these initiatives Take to play out and can you just size for us, you know, if we're talking about food service, how meaningful of a bucket is that as we think about the margin upside?
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, pricing we're already seeing right now, and you're seeing that in the numbers and the impact, especially in the fuel-related environment. Customer service, you're starting to see just small bits of that, but most of that impact will come in next year. and then on the routing which is the biggest opportunity most of the will be rollout next year so you'll see some impact toward the back end of next year but that will really be a 2028 story in terms of getting the full benefit of that. I think we mentioned 100 million run rate EBITDA by the end of 2028 and we still feel like we're on track for that number.
Jerry Revich
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Okay great and then we're about 27 in about three months but you know putting the pieces together we've got good Momentum on ES for the first time in 18 months, and if we're thinking about good core margin improvement in the base business on top of it, it could be in total a year of outsized margin expansion versus 26. Brian, anything that we need to keep in mind given that setup? Obviously, we'll talk more detail in three months, but we'd love to get your initial thoughts on the high-level opportunity. Okay.
Brian DelGhiaccio
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, remember, I mean, we didn't provide guidance, but we did talk about our long-term growth algorithm, and we feel that 27 is laying into the construct of what we talk about that long-term growth algorithm, which calls for 30 to 50 basis points of margin expansion.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from Adam Bubes with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Adam Bubes
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Hi, thanks for taking the question. I think organic growth X event-related volumes in ES was 9%. Can you just help us understand the drivers of the strength there? How much is volume versus price? Which business lines are you seeing the strongest growth?
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
You bounce across both, more volume and price, but certainly got our fair share on price. I think what you're seeing is just all the factors driving the industrial economy. PMI now has been over 50 for a number of months. You're starting to see the reshoring activity. Obviously, a big build-out in all parts of the technology sector and semiconductors and data centers and everything else. And all of those things are contributing to our performance.
Brian DelGhiaccio
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, and to John's point, it was broad-based. We saw increases at our hazardous waste landfills. We saw increase in E&P volumes. We saw it in our TSDFs. and our field and industrial services. So it was very broad-based increase.
Adam Bubes
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
And then on the residential side, I think you cited some municipal contract losses. Were those new in 3Q or was that already in the base? And then I think last quarter on the call, you might have talked about potential to get closer to a down 2% number sometime in 2027. Does that still hold or should we think about this as incremental shedding?
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
No, all these were actions or decisions that were taken last year that were living with the effect through the course of this year and that we will certainly move up in our trend. And I think that roughly 2% is probably about where we'll end up landing next year. Thanks so much.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from Trevor Romeo with William Blair. Please go ahead.
Trevor Romeo
Analyst, William Blair
Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the questions. Just a couple more for me on ES just because it was nice to see the improvement there. I mean, one, I appreciate the comments about the sort of long-term growth algorithm in 27, and I know you don't want to be getting into, you know, detailed guidance, but just thinking you're already kind of organically X events growing 9%, got kind of an easier comp in the first half next year, and you've got the manufacturing backup improving and all kind of the other secular factors there. So, I mean... How are you thinking about the potential for 27 for ES to just be kind of an above-average growth year and kind of what needs to happen for it to get there?
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
We'll continue to build the pipeline and have high aspirations for our team. I think we give you the long, kind of the broad markers of how the business does. Keep in mind, we're still in the sub-15% of the overall business. We give you the overall markers for how we're going to do next year. You could still have outsized performance in ES and could fit within the envelope that Brian talked about.
Trevor Romeo
Analyst, William Blair
Okay, I appreciate that, Jon. And just a quick follow-up on ES as well. I mean, in the ER projects overall, I guess, how has this year kind of been trending relative to a normal year? And then I know pricing on the ER work is something you've talked about maybe the past several quarters. Do you feel like that's kind of gotten back to an equilibrium at this point now that you're kind of winning more jobs?
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
I think we're getting better and smarter every day. We do thousands of ER jobs every year. Most of them are very small. It's the outsized jobs that can kind of drive the economics. And really, the last 18 to 24 months prior to this quarter, it's been the dearth of those larger jobs. And so typically, you see one, two, or three of these bigger jobs every year. We had a couple of them this quarter. Team did a great job, and we leveraged the full capabilities of our offering. So it wasn't just the Environmental Solutions, Field Services Team, and Post Collection Group, but it was also our recycling and waste landfills that played a pretty big part in providing the right solutions for our customers. All right, good stuff. Thank you.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from Tommy Zachariah from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Tommy Zachariah
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Hey, good afternoon. Thank you so much. I wanted to understand the mid-single-digit growth algo that you have for the long term a little bit better. So you've been able to achieve that despite residential construction, housing formation being very weak the last few years. So if and when that begins to recover, how should we think about a lift to that mid-single-digit percent number or What kind of improvement have you seen, did you see in the past when prior resi-up cycles began?
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I'm very optimistic about the U.S. housing market over time. I'm very pessimistic about it in the short to medium term. I think we're going to need to get the tenure down and the interest rate down to unlock both people to move and investment in a new housing construction, which the country badly needs. It will have a nice, steady, positive tailwind to the industry, and it will start in large container temp because that will be the work we do. We'll add then some residential units, and then the knock-on effect is adding some small container units around that as you see business formation happen around households. So that'll be a steady, it's not points and points of growth to the top line, but there'll be certainly some basis points of tailwind, and those will be profitable units we'll add to the system.
Brian DelGhiaccio
Chief Financial Officer
If you want to sensitize it, direct construction-related activity is about 6% to 7% of our total revenue base.
Tommy Zachariah
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Understood. That's all from me. Thank you.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
Next question comes from Seth Weber from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Noah Kay / Seth Weber
Analyst, Oppenheimer / BNP Paribas
Hey, guys. Good evening. A couple more on ease. and the 9%, you know, excluding the emergency business. Do you feel like that's a catch-up of just stuff that has been delayed or do you feel like you're taking market share here? Thank you.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
I think I would encourage you do not over-interpret a given quarter, right? In this business, there's always puts and takes on event job where recycling a waste given the predominantly recurring revenue nature of that business, very repeatable, predictable, and you can start to spot trends easier in that business. I think we're seeing a re-ignition of growth in the sector, and we're certainly getting our fair share, and we feel probably more than our fair share right now. That could change over the quarter, but we'll, again, over the cycle, we'll look to get growth slightly ahead of market and certainly lead with price and then take volume behind that. and I think we're very encouraged by the efforts the team has made in that business. Okay.
Seth Weber / Kevin Chiang
Analyst, BNP Paribas / CIBC
And then just as this business turns, would you expect outsized incremental margins in this business for, say, 2027?
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
I think it depends a lot on mix and the nature of that work. In general, yes, you get leverage on your post-collection assets, you get leverage on your labor, so there's some fixed cost nature of that work on the field services as well. But the nature of that work and the mix of the work could determine it, but on balance, yes.
Unknown
Brief analyst acknowledgements
Okay. Thanks, guys. I appreciate it.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stiefel. Please go ahead.
Shlomo Rosenbaum / Toby Sommer
Analyst, Stifel / Truist
Hi. Thank you. First question, just a little bit about operational landfill costs. I think you're the first company reporting this quarter that has not mentioned that they're going up. I'm just wondering, are you noticing that happening recently? Is there a way to contextualize it if it is? If not, why do you think you're not seeing it versus some of the other ones that are talking about it now?
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
Some of it depends on weather and rain and the mix of where your landfills are located. Again, in any given quarter or year, you might be slightly more elevated than others on that. Landfills are certainly getting more expensive to operate, but our team's done a really good job of Managing those costs, getting in front of it, and most importantly, protecting the health of those landfills across the cycle.
Shlomo Rosenbaum / Toby Sommer
Analyst, Stifel / Truist
Do you have anything regulatory-wise, particularly where your landfills are located, that's making a bigger difference now versus some of the other ones?
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
We're working every day across multiple state capitals, shaping regulation or sometimes working against regulation if we think it's really bad for the customer, but most of the time shaping regulation to help improve the environment and manage those assets.
Shlomo Rosenbaum / Toby Sommer
Analyst, Stifel / Truist
Great. Just to follow up, Brian, can you just talk about the price of diesel that's expected in your 4Q26 numbers?
Brian DelGhiaccio
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, we've seen diesel modulate a little bit. The high point in September was approximately $6.50. As we sit here today, we'll call it 635. We expect that to taper down a little bit and approach the $6 mark by the time we exit the year.
Shlomo Rosenbaum / Toby Sommer
Analyst, Stifel / Truist
Thank you.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Stephanie Moore
Analyst, Jefferies
Hi, good afternoon. Thank you. Okay, so maybe first question. I do want to touch a bit on M&A. Maybe if you could talk about how you're just viewing the M&A environment today, you know, where you're seeing the most attractive opportunities across, obviously, MSW, ES, or anything else. And then, you know, what should we expect maybe your focus to remain? Is it more so tuck-ins? Is there an appetite for maybe a larger, more strategic deal? I'd love to hear your thoughts. Thank you.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
The balance of our pipeline is always going to be smaller tuck-ins. We'll probably end up doing somewhere around 25 acquisitions this year, most of which will be small tuck-ins. It'll be balanced across recycling and waste and ES. Most of it will be recycling and waste, just given the size and the nature of those opportunities. There were certainly some medium-sized deals this year, and they'll be Some more next year. The pipeline remains very, very strong. In terms of anything larger, we remain and take a perspective on everything, but I wouldn't anticipate something in that stage or that size to happen to be in our wheelhouse here in the short to medium term.
Stephanie Moore
Analyst, Jefferies
Understood. And just a quick follow up on the volume piece. Can you just remind us where you are in the just the residential shedding journey? You know, when we should expect to see maybe that optimal mix and then also any color you can give in terms of what this is implied from just a margin standpoint as well. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
Well, I think there's always going to be some underlying shedding because as we acquire companies, we know part of their portfolio are municipal contracts that will either upgrade or exit. They just don't meet our returns threshold. And so, again, across 25 deals, we don't pay for that portion of the deal when we buy those contracts. And we retain some of them, but we know some of them would be unlikely to retain. And then going forward, we don't aspire to shrink that business. We would like to grow that business over time. We're going to make sure that we get attractive returns on the hard work that our people do. We're going to continue to look for customers that are willing to pay for a differentiated offering. That market will move over time, but when forced to choose, we're going to take price over volume.
Brian DelGhiaccio
Chief Financial Officer
The margin implications of that to your question is if you're shedding lower profitable work within the residential business, but gaining on the more profitable small and large container work that you're going to mix up from a margin perspective.
Unknown
Brief analyst acknowledgements
Thank you. Really appreciate it.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from Toby Salmer with Truist.
Unknown
Brief analyst acknowledgements
Please go ahead. Toby, your line may be muted.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
We will take the next question from Kevin Chiang with CIBC. Please go ahead.
Seth Weber / Kevin Chiang
Analyst, BNP Paribas / CIBC
Hi, thanks for taking my question this afternoon. Maybe just on environmental services, again, good results in the quarter. I appreciate it, as you called out, mix can play a role here and maybe just the underlying cyclicality of the business. But I guess when I look It feels like your incremental margins in this business can be kind of like 30% to 50%, I guess, depending on Mix as that revenue comes through. Is that kind of the right ballpark to think about how that incremental revenue flows through to the bottom line and then Mix is maybe a 20-point variance around that goalposts?
Brian DelGhiaccio
Chief Financial Officer
To John's earlier point, it depends on the type of work that you're getting. So certainly if you're getting it through your post-collection infrastructure, the TSDFs, the landfills, the E&P work, certainly it can be those levels. Field and industrial services, it's going to be accretive to those lines of business, but not to that level. So certainly what we saw in this period, given the large emergency response jobs, as well as increases in both the has-waste landfills and E&P, that's why you saw the incrementals. that we produced this quarter.
Seth Weber / Kevin Chiang
Analyst, BNP Paribas / CIBC
That's helpful. And just my follow-up question, if I look back the last five years or so, I don't think we've seen a quarter where small container, large container, and special waste all put a positive volume. I guess the last time we saw it was coming out of the pandemic. I guess, does this foretell how volume trends in 2027, the intentional shedding? Could you have I think the market is starting to expand.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
Again, the market's not taking off. I don't want to oversell it, but the market is absolutely trending up and trending to a positive period. And the one caveat in all that is there's a lot of things going on geopolitically and with AI and big investment cycles and other things. So the macro would have to be supportive of that. But if the macro hangs in there, we would absolutely expect to see positive volume next year.
Seth Weber / Kevin Chiang
Analyst, BNP Paribas / CIBC
Thank you.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from Toby Sommer with Truist. Please go ahead.
Shlomo Rosenbaum / Toby Sommer
Analyst, Stifel / Truist
Sorry about that. Trick-or-treating came earlier this year.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
I wanted to ask a question about if you look over the horizon, sort of around the corner, we've had a couple of Two, three years where landfill natural gas provided a little bit of kind of new opportunity in spice for profit and revenue and cash flow growth.
Shlomo Rosenbaum / Toby Sommer
Analyst, Stifel / Truist
What do you see over the next three, seven, eight years that might provide another spicy period with a minor but interesting catalyst to spur those growth rates a little higher?
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
Well, we're certainly looking at everything that goes in a landfill and challenging all of those tons. Landfills, while they're profitable, they're also a cost, right? You've already collected the money from somebody and they're a cost to us. So is there something else we could do with that material? And some of that, we get a little bit of diversion out of that, out of our sustainability investments around advanced recycling. Most of that is upcycling, but there is some opportunity of taking things and diverting them out of the landfill. The biggest opportunity we're pursuing right now is organic material, which is 20 to 25% of what shows up in a landfill. And we have a lot of those projects today. Are there more different things that we can do with those over time? That's not a kind of near-term one to two-year opportunity, but over three to five years, I think that could start to be an interesting and meaningful revenue stream.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
At this time, there appears to be no further questions. Mr. Vander Ark, I'll turn the call back over to you for closing remarks.
Jon Vander Ark
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Chloe. I want to thank the entire public services team for their continued great work and dedication to exceeding our customers' expectations. We've accomplished a lot already this year, and I'm confident we will carry this momentum through the end of the year and into 2027 as we continue creating long-term value for our customers, employees, and shareholders. I would also like to say congratulations to Jim Fish on a terrific career at WM and wish him the best in retirement. Have a good evening and be safe.
Chloe
Conference Call Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.