RSKD Riskified Ltd.

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Riskified Ltd. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator
Conference Call Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Riskified Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are on the listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you would need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message of vibes and your hand is raised. And to withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again. We ask that you please limit to one question and one follow-up. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would like now to turn the conference over to Stefan Scholstein, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Stefan Scholstein
Head of Investor Relations
Good morning and thank you for joining us today. We are hosting today's call to discuss Riskified Financial Results for the third quarter of 2026. Participating on today's call are Eido Gal, Riskify's co-founder and chief executive officer, and Aggie Dotcheva, Riskify's chief financial officer. Our earnings materials, including a replay of today's webcast, will be available on our investor relations website at ir.riskify.com. Certain statements made on the call today will be forward-looking statements related to, without limitation, our operating performance, business and financial goals, outlook as to revenues, gross profit, and gross margin, Pipeline Generation, Pipeline Conversion, The Timing of New Merchant Go Lives, Adjusted EBITDA Profitability, Adjusted EBITDA Margins, Non-Gap Operating Expenses, Free Cash Flow, and Expectations as to Category and Regional Growth Trends, which reflect management's best judgment based on currently available information and are not guarantees of future performance. We intend all forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, These forward-looking statements reflect our expectations as of the date of this call and, except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to revise this information as a result of new developments that may occur after the time of this call. Please refer to our Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2025 and subsequent reports we file or furnish with the SEC for more information on the specific factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Additionally, we will discuss Certain non-GAAP financial measures and key performance indicators on the call. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and information regarding forward-looking non-GAAP measures are available in our earnings release issued earlier today and in the appendix of our investor relations presentation, all of which are posted on our investor relations website. Our earnings release will also be furnished to the SEC on Form 6-K. I will now turn the call over to Eido to begin.
Eido Gal
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Stephan, and hello, everyone. I am very pleased with our third quarter results. Revenue grew 41% year over year to $115.2 million, well ahead of the approximately 27% growth we guided to, and this was our first quarter above $100 million. Non-GAAP gross profit grew 20% to $49.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $8.1 million, which is a 7% margin. Given this performance, we are raising our full-year outlook for revenue in adjusted EBITDA for the third time this year. I want to thank our team for delivering these results for our merchants and shareholders. Last quarter, I described how the fraud environment is becoming more complex. The pace of change has only increased in what we believe is a step change for our merchants. We believe this position is riskified to capture more of our addressable market than ever before. Merchants are facing fraud that is faster, more sophisticated, and spread across more of the customer journey. As a result, We are seeing strong and growing demand for a modern, platform-based approach to risk, one that uses a shared identity layer to connect account, checkout, policy, and dispute decisions. We believe this quarter's results are a reflection of that opportunity, and we see substantial runway ahead. Allow me to offer an analogy. In cybersecurity, as the attack surface expanded into the cloud, enterprises moved from point solution-steward platforms with end-to-end visibility across their environments. We believe commerce is following a similar path and that a platform like ours only becomes more valuable as the surface expands. We talked through some of these fraud trends last quarter, so let me focus on what is new. Agenda commerce has quickly moved to the forefront of conversations with merchants as consumers are beginning to hand parts of the shopping journey to AI agents. The same capability that lets a legitimate shopper delegate a purchase or return also enables delegated fraud. A fraudster directing an agent to run a scheme or abuse merchant policies. When an agent acts for the customer, whether buying, returning, or filing a claim, many of the signals that merchants traditionally have relied on are absent. We believe this presents an opportunity for us. For more than a decade, we've helped merchants make accurate decisions on orders that come with limited information and built a global network that has received more than $1.5 trillion in transactions. and as agents begin to shop on consumers behalf, we're applying that same experience, analyzing how the agent itself behaves and assessing the trustworthiness of the person behind the agent, account or wallet. Because we see the same consumers shop both with and without agents, we believe we can recover much of what's missing and deliver better outcomes for our merchants. This quarter, we were very pleased to announce agent identity risk intelligence. A new set of capabilities designed to identify the AI personal assistant behind an order or a customer service request, resolve it to a real consumer identity, and return a risk signal in real time. Allow me to explain why we think this matters. Much of the industry's focus today is on confirming that an agent is authorized to make a purchase. But authorization only tells the merchant that an agent has permission to act. It does not tell them whether the person behind it can be trusted. We expect risk to be higher in agentic orders driven by fraudsters using agents with stolen credentials or taken over accounts, and by consumers using agents to abuse return, refund, and promotion policies. Solving this requires knowing the real identity behind the agent, and that is what our network and identity graph were built to do. As agentic volume increases, we believe we are well positioned to serve merchants as what we believe is the largest and most accurate company in our space. We're also incredibly excited about our new partnership and integration with Zendesk that we announced in the third quarter. We continue to find new use cases for our identity intelligence product, which is a core asset for Riskify. The integration brings our identity intelligence directly into customer service, so both human and AI service agents can assess the customer behind a refund, return, or exchange request. The integration is designed so that trusted shoppers get faster resolution, and request that signal fraud or policy abuse get additional review. We believe it also opens a new channel to reach both existing and prospective merchants. Now, let me turn to some specific growth drivers in the quarter. The themes we've discussed in prior quarters showed up clearly in our results. The increasing complexity of fraud our merchants face, the value of a differentiated risk platform, and our investments in industry-specific product features. Our teams executed well on both driving new business and growing our existing base. As Sagi will discuss in more detail, we saw broad-based growth across all verticals led by digital finance. I want to spend a moment on digital finance as it is a key example of how we are driving growth by delivering for our customers. These merchants move money in real time across cards, ACH, wallets, and peer-to-peer payments, and they need a trust layer to do it safely. The investments we made in models and features for these payment methods have positioned us to deliver that, and we believe our performance will keep improving as we add more merchants in this category. Our plan is to repeat our approach across the rest of e-commerce. We believe the pace is accelerating, both because of the broader capabilities that our platform now offers and because the fraud environment is pushing merchants to look for a partner that can deliver this level of performance. Our new business was also more global than ever. We added new logos across all four regions, and eight of our top ten new logos are headquartered outside the United States, compared to five in each of the first two quarters of 26. We believe every merchant we add, in every region, extends our network and improves performance for all our merchants. As demand for a platform approach increases, merchants are responding by doing more with us. Our multi-product merchant base grew approximately 55% year-over-year, and nearly 50% of our top 50 clients are using two or more products. Putting it all together, we believe we are well positioned in a favorable operating environment, we are executing well, and our risk intelligence platform continues to deliver for merchants in a differentiated way. Before I conclude, I'd like to offer some thoughts on capital allocation. We ended the quarter with approximately $235 million in cash, deposits, and investments and no debt. That gives us the flexibility to keep investing in the platform, opportunistically buy back shares, and evaluate inorganic opportunities that could accelerate our product roadmap. We will be disciplined and focused on generating the highest long-term returns for our shareholders. As we look ahead, Trot is not a solved problem, and we believe it will continue to grow more complex for our merchants. This environment favors a platform like Riskified with our breadth and network. As commerce changes, we intend to keep doing what we have done for more than a decade, adapt early, and turn that complexity into value for our merchants and our shareholders. I'll now turn it over to Agi for a deeper look at our financial results.
Agi Dotcheva
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Eido, team, and everyone for joining today's call. Unless otherwise noted, this discussion will reference non-GAAP financial measures. We have provided a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures in our earnings release. We delivered a strong quarter of revenue and gross profit growth with increasing operating leverage. Let me unpack the drivers of growth and profitability and then share our outlook for the rest of 2026. Our GMV for the third quarter was $44.6 billion, reflecting an 80% increase over a year. We achieved revenue covers in 15.2 million, up 41% year-over-year. Our GMV and revenue growth during this quarter was primarily driven by continued new merchants and upsell activity, as merchants continue to recognize the value our platform provides. Bidding's growth in the third quarter was broad-based across all of our categories, led by digital finance. Our digital finance category grew more than 300% year-over-year, driven primarily by strong activity of new merchants, with upsell activity across our existing base contributing as well. That breadth extended beyond our largest categories with electronics, general and home collectively growing by 12% year over year supported by new business and upsell activity. Our tickets and travel category grew approximately 5% year over year. Tickets and live events was the primary driver growing by low double digits on the back of a strong summer of live events. This was partially offset by a slight decline in travel, where we saw new business and upsell activity within our airline merchants, but tougher year-over-year comparisons among OTAs. Our fashion and luxury vertical grew 4% year-over-year, driven by new and upsell activity. Turning to our regional performance, billings grew across all regions except EMEA during the third quarter. The United States, our largest region, grew approximately 69% year-over-year, up from 38% in the second quarter, reflecting strong activity at new margins. APAC grew approximately 14% year-over-year, and other Americas grew approximately 17% year-over-year, driven by continued upsell and new business activity. AMIA declined 3% due to a tough year-over-year comparison, primarily in the digital assets of VertiCo within digital finance. Our gross profit for the third quarter was $49.7 million, reflecting a 20% increase year-over-year. The growth was primarily driven by the contribution of new business onboarded over the past year. Our gross margin in the third quarter was 43%, reflecting the growing share of newly onboarded merchants in our mix. We continue to focus on driving gross profit dollar growth. And as a reminder, gross margins across individual quarters can vary due to many factors. including the ramping of new merchants and the risk profiles of transactions approved. As a result of our third quarter performance, we're raising our expected full-year gross profit growth to a range of 14% to 16% or 15% at the midpoint up from our prior range of 11% to 14%. Moving to operating expenses. Non-GAAP operating expenses totaled $41.6 million for the quarter or 36% of revenue. compared to 44% in Q3 of 2025. This reflects sustained cost discipline as our business scales while we also invest in our key growth priorities. On a constant currency basis, OPEX would have been $2.2 million lower or approximately 34% of revenue, primarily driven by the appreciation of the Israeli shekel. We expect fourth quarter non-GAAP operating expenses to range between 42 million and 43 million. We delivered adjusted EBITDA of 8.1 million, representing a 47% increase compared to 5.6 million in Q3 of 2025 as we continued to scale efficiently. On a GAAP basis, our third quarter net loss improved by 6.5 million year-over-year to a loss of 1.3 million compared to a loss of $7.8 million in Q3 of 2025. Moving to the balance sheet. We went to the third quarter with approximately $235 million of cash, deposits, and investments and continue to carry zero debt. In addition, we continue to maintain a healthy cash flow model. In the third quarter, we achieved record free cash flow of $15.2 million. We now expect approximately $45 million of positive free cash flow in 2026. We have 78 million remaining under our share buyback authorization. In Q3, we repurchased approximately 500,000 shares, a more limited amount than in region quarters, as we maintain flexibility across our broader capital allocation priorities. We view our strong balance sheet and liquidity as strategic assets that allow us to invest in growth and navigate a range of operating environments. As Edo mentioned, we intend to remain disciplined and opportunistic in deploying capital across internal investments, share buybacks, and inorganic opportunities to create long-term shareholder value. Now turning to our outlook. As a result of our continued execution, we're raising the full-year guidance range across both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. We now anticipate full-year revenue to be between $427 million and $433 million, or 430 million at the midpoint, up from our prior range of 400 million to 410 million, reflecting the outperformance of our third quarter results and our expectations for a strong fourth quarter. Our outlook implies fourth quarter revenue growth of approximately 29% at the midpoint. We currently expect adjusted EBITDA to be between 39 million and 43 million or 41 million at the midpoint, up from our prior range of $33 million to $39 million, representing a margin of approximately 10% at the midpoint, up from 9% implied in our prior guide. To wrap up, we're pleased with our third quarter results. Revenue grew 41% to a record $115.2 million, our first quarter above $100 million, and we delivered this growth while maintaining operating expense discipline. Free cash flow was a record and we've raised our full year outlook for revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the third time this year. As we continue to execute in a favorable operating environment, we believe we're well positioned to drive durable, profitable growth. Operator, we're ready to take the first question, please.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. And we ask please to limit to one question and one follow up. And the first question comes from Chris Kennedy with William Blair. Your line is open.
Chris Kennedy
Analyst, William Blair
Thanks for taking the question. It's great to see the momentum in the business. Is there any way you can talk about 2027 given the recent momentum in the business? Thank you.
Agi Dotcheva
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you for the question, Chris. We're really happy with the momentum and the record revenue that we achieved this quarter, $150 million just crossing the $100 million. It's really exciting. We're still working through our budgeting process. We want to see how our holiday season plays out. As a reminder, Q4 is our largest quarter in the year, and we just want to see how this plays out, how newer business ramps up before we finalize the plan. So consistent with and our usual practice will provide 2027 outlook in the fourth quarter results.
Chris Kennedy
Analyst, William Blair
Understood. Thank you. And then when you think about some of the drivers of the momentum in the business, any way to frame the drivers being onboarding of new customers versus upsell? Thanks for taking the questions.
Agi Dotcheva
Chief Financial Officer
And just to kind of deep dive into drivers as we kind of walk through some of the industry roles, I would say that the primary driver is new business. And while it's both based across a number of industries, specifically the digital finance growth stands out. I'm very happy with the performance in a number of other categories as we kind of highlighted even some of the smaller categories. like home and electronics, general retail. We're kind of showing double digit, low double digit growth and happy with the performance across geographies as well. All but one geography shows like a very nice growth. So overall, again, growth based with a strong focus on digital finance.
Tom Chong
Analyst, KBW
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
And our next question will come from Terry Tillman with Truist. Your line is open.
Terry Tillman
Analyst, Truist
Hey, good morning. I apologize for the background noise and congrats from me as well on the quarter. And hi, Eido, Auggie, and Stephan. On digital finance, if we could double click the 300% billings growth is impressive. Could you kind of decompose in terms of some of the size of these wins? Did they continue ramping over multiple quarters? And is it primarily some of the new business centered on the predictions market? And then I had a follow up.
Eido Gal
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Terry. Thanks for the question. Happy to take it. So when we talk about digital finance, that includes exchanges, remittance companies, sports betting and event contracts. And we've had multiple significant wins throughout the past few quarters that have ramped. you know from a concentration perspective our top three or top five that's remained similar over the past few years so while we might have seen some shifts in the clients composing that there's no real change to those numbers overall kind of multi-product has continued to increase and I just mentioned that because it creates a deeper relationship with some of these newer clients as we continue to focus on kind of long-term relationships with them So overall, we feel that it's a broad opportunity with more, you know, kind of go gets within the digital finance space and direct adjacencies. We think that some of our capabilities that we've developed, whether it's, you know, around account intelligence or checkout intelligence that also supports ACH in a very secure way and multiple payment methods. Some of the proliferation of newer fraud MOs that they're facing has all helped us become very relevant and important in that area.
Terry Tillman
Analyst, Truist
That's great. That's great context. And then just to follow up, and Agi, maybe this is for you. For 4Q, I mean, my numbers are going higher, and that's great. But Q over Q, there is definitely a slower seasonal kind of Q over Q growth. Is that just conservatism or some of these kind of new business segments? Maybe there's just less seasonality like you would typically see. Just maybe unpacking how do you think about that 4Q seasonality versus the last couple of years? Thank you.
Agi Dotcheva
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you for the question, Terry. You're correct. Seasonality kind of can change quarter to quarter from the prior year based on the different mix of industries that make up the specific quarter. Just looking into Q4, I still expect The traditional categories to have kind of benefit from the holiday season and the sales around it. But there's other categories specifically around digital finance, also tickets and maybe some of the slowness in travel as well that can change some of the quarter to quarter performance year over year.
Terry Tillman
Analyst, Truist
Thanks a lot.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
And our next question is going to come from Ryan Tomasello with KBW. Your line is open.
Tom Chong
Analyst, KBW
Hey, everyone. This is Tom Chong. I'm for Ryan. Congrats on the great quarter. So on that 3Q gap between the revenue growth and gross profit, that seems to have widened in 2Q. And I know you called out that it's mostly this new merchant ramping and mixed dynamic. But firstly, could you help us maybe understand if there's a different gross margin profile across the different verticals? and then how are you thinking about that relationship in 2027, whether that starts to converge or yeah.
Eido Gal
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
We don't anticipate inherently different margin structure between our categories, even though, you know, individual merchants might vary from it. Overall, we continue to see consistent behavior across cohorts, which means that, you know, improvements in existing cohorts offset by the ramping of new clients that start with higher chargeback ratios. But as we continue to improve performance within those clients, improving margin profile as well. So very consistent with how we've seen it play out historically. And we would anticipate that to carry into 27 as well.
Tom Chong
Analyst, KBW
Okay, and just to follow up, have you seen the competitive landscape kind of evolve in response to the growing complexity and this agenda commerce rising up? Do you see any larger incumbents like say the networks start to compete more heavily in the space?
Eido Gal
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
That's a great question. Thank you for that. So we do see increasing complexity and we see a more heightened fraud environment, whether it's because of the proliferation of AI tools that may Hacking and social engineering overall faster or whether it's the profilation of agent commerce and them being involved in some points of the shopping journey and merchants trying to understand how to better manage that. We do see that complexity impacting merchants and drive more need for an end to end solution that can protect them across account, checkout, Policy and Dispute Management. We think we clearly have the most sophisticated and advanced product in this space. We feel that merchants are very responsive to that and that's showing up in the results. And we're really excited about the positioning and opportunity right now.
Tom Chong
Analyst, KBW
Got it. Thanks for taking questions.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
And our next question is going to come from Will Nance with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Will Nance
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Hey, thank you for taking the question. I want to go back to the other question just on the ramp of some of these new digital finance verticals. How quickly does it take or how long does it take to get up to kind of full pace with some of these newer merchants? And is there any way you can kind of characterize like your wallet share or kind of additional processing opportunity with some of these new client links?
Eido Gal
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Hey, well, happy to take that. So consistent with how we view other cohorts and merchants, we tend to see kind of year over year results. Exactly exact timeframe of when that happens depends on the merchant and can have quarterly variability. So nothing specific to call out there on an exact timeframe. But overall, I would anticipate similar trajectory to what we've seen historically. With regards to market share and kind of white space both within merchants and within other categories, I would say similar to the rest of the book of business, we tend to have both opportunity to get new clients in all categories and expand market share through that avenue and also to increase penetration by cross-selling some of our additional products and capturing more volume. And that's consistent across our book of business.
Will Nance
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Is this helpful? And then just the comment on share purchases and the prepared remarks. Can you just talk about if there's been any changes in your thought process around capital allocations? Thanks for taking the questions.
Eido Gal
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Sure. We're actively looking to create product for M&A to expand our product portfolio beyond just checkout. We think there's a lot of opportunity in the wider shopping journey, also post-checkout capabilities. So it is something we're focused on. As we think about every new opportunity, we do take a lens of build by partner. And with some of the agentic coding capabilities and throughput of our development teams, we've actually found more recently that we're able to get a lot more done. And that's very encouraging, but also means that the bar is higher on our end.
Agi Dotcheva
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks for taking the question.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
And our next question is going to come from Timothy Chiodo with UBS. Your line's open.
Timothy Chiodo
Analyst, UBS
Great, thank you. I also want to circle back to the prepared remarks around the increasing complexity around the agentic commerce. I was hoping you could give a little more context on the types of agentic transactions that you're seeing. I believe these are more human emulation type going to the the traditional brand.com website of your clients and using a one-time use virtual card approach. But I was hoping we could start with a quick one on that topic and then have a brief follow-up.
Eido Gal
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Tim. Happy to take that. Thanks for asking. Look, I think there's been a lot of different perspectives shared on agent commerce and how prevalent is it and what we're seeing is that it really just depends on how you categorize shopping. We see agents assist in the shopping process, whether that's things like price comparison and discussions around returns, refunds, discount attempts. So we're definitely seeing a prevalence of that. The actual checkout We're seeing a much lower success rate there or attempt rate from a kind of tokenization or maybe just more so from a risk perspective. We do see an increase in fraudulent attempts in this channel by and large, and that tends to be consistent with historically fraudsters tend to gravitate towards these new flows, sometimes faster than consumers. So that's kind of pretty consistent. And overall, you know, I know there's a big focus on things like, is it a digital card, a tokenized transaction? What's the intent? We tend to take a slightly different view or focus, right? For us, the question is more, you know, it could be a tokenized transaction or not. That doesn't answer the question. Is this a stolen credit card that's being loaded? And is there a fraudulent attempt here or kind of a similar story around a policy or refund request? So we just try to match the agent to the underlying identity. And that's really the strength of the identity graph that we've built and leverage that to make smarter decisions. And the most prevalent use case right now is around the various policy flows, more so than the actual checkout.
Timothy Chiodo
Analyst, UBS
OK, thank you. I appreciate that. Well, the related follow up and it sounds like there's not too much of this, but are your clients Are they accepting the agentic transactions at their traditional website or are they starting to build out separate endpoints to accept the agentic network token handoff, if you will?
Eido Gal
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, look, I mean, we work with over 50 publicly traded companies and each one is on a slightly different path on their overall journey. I think everyone is aware and trying to prepare. Given the slightly lower amount of actual checkout attempts and success rates there, I think that might hold back overall level of investment. But as this continues to evolve and some of the bugs are ironed out, I'm sure that we'll see more broader support for checkout. But as of now, it's probably more focused on the customer support flows than anything else, which is where it's showing up.
Will Nance
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Alright, thanks a lot.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
I'm showing no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Eido for closing remarks.
Eido Gal
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Alright, thank you everyone for joining the call. We look forward to updating you on the progress in the quarters ahead.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.