SABR Sabre Corporation
$1.74
Sabre Corporation Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Conference Call Analysis
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Conference Call Operator
Good morning and welcome to Saber's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. My name is Marvin and I'll be your operator. As a reminder, please note today's call is being recorded. I'll now turn the call over to Vice President of Investor Relations, Jim Mathias. Please go ahead, sir.
Jim Mathias
Vice President of Investor Relations
Good morning and welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings call. This morning we issued an earnings press release which is available on our website at investors.saber.com. A slide presentation, which accompanies today's prepared remarks, is also available during this call on the Sabre Investor Relations webpage. A replay of today's call will be available on our website later this morning. We advise you that our comments contain forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs and expectations about future events, including results of our growth strategies, our AI offerings, and AI-related developments in the industry, transactions and bookings growth, Expectations regarding the Middle East conflict and recovery, including fuel prices as well as the impact of other geopolitical events, commercial and strategic arrangements, our financial guidance, outlook and expectations, pro forma financial information, free cash flow, and liquidity among others. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made on today's conference call. More information on these risks and uncertainties is contained in our earnings release issued this morning and our SEC filings, including our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Throughout today's call, we will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. References during today's call to free cash flow, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, normalized adjusted EBITDA, Normalized Adjusted EBITDA Margin and Adjusted Technology and Adjusted SG&A Expenses have been adjusted to exclude certain items. The most directly comparable gap measures and reconciliations for our non-gap measures are available in the earnings release and other documents posted on our website at investors.saber.com. Normalized amounts have been adjusted for estimated costs historically allocated to our hospitality solutions business which was sold on July 3, 2025. We are also presenting certain financial information on a pro forma basis to give effect to the sale of the hospitality solutions business. Unless otherwise noted, results presented are based on continuing operations. Participating with me today are Kurt Ekert, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Mike Randolfi, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I will turn the call over to Kurt.
Kurt Ekert
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Jim. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We delivered strong third quarter results, favorable to our expectations, and made progress against our financial and strategic objectives. Reflecting on our performance year to date and our outlook, for the second consecutive quarter, we are raising our full year 2026 guidance for both pro forma adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, while reaffirming our outlook for full year revenue and air marketplace bookings growth. Third quarter revenue grew 3% year on year, while normalized adjusted EBITDA increased 13% year on year to $170 million, exceeding our expectations. Total marketplace bookings were flat year on year, demonstrating resilience amid a challenging external environment and continued disruption to global travel patterns. Air marketplace bookings declined 1% in the quarter, reflecting continued impacts from the Middle East conflict and higher fuel prices, which have led to capacity reductions by airlines and higher airfares. While performance in the Americas remained strong and corporate travel remained resilient, we experienced softer leisure travel, particularly in EMEA and Asia Pacific. We estimate these factors created a combined 300 to 400 basis point headwind to air marketplace bookings growth in the third quarter. Absent these headwinds, We believe third quarter total marketplace bookings growth would have been in the mid single digit range. Importantly, year to date through the third quarter, we believe that Sabre has outperformed airline industry volume broadly and our competitors by approximately 400 to 500 basis points, demonstrating the strength of our competitive position and the progress we are making against our growth strategies. Consistent with our expectations, Both Air Marketplace and Total Marketplace bookings have improved sequentially in the fourth quarter to date, supporting our outlook for full year 2026 Air Marketplace bookings growth in the low to mid single digit range. While the external environment remains dynamic, our business is performing well, our growth strategies are delivering results, and we continue to generate both revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. I am pleased with our progress and increasingly confident in our ability to build on this momentum as we execute against the many opportunities ahead. Now turning to slide five. Our momentum this year is reflected in our fourth consecutive quarter of year on year revenue growth and fifth consecutive quarter of double digit year on year growth in normalized adjusted EBITDA. This performance marks an important shift at Saver. Our growth strategies are gaining traction and driving consistent top-line growth. Combined with disciplined cost management, this momentum is translating into stronger profitability, expanding margins, and sustainable improvement in our financial performance. We believe we are well positioned to achieve our increased outlook for 2026 pro forma adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, which Mike will discuss shortly. Importantly, Sabre is already generating significant unlevered free cash flow with approximately $395 million expected in 2026. As we continue to grow revenue and expand profitability, we expect to build on this strong cash generation and transition to positive free cash flow in 2027, marking a meaningful inflection point in our financial performance. During the quarter, we executed a successful refinancing, and as a result, have extended $1.35 billion of maturities out to 2032. Strong investor demand enabled us to secure a lower interest rate on this refinancing of nine and seven eighths while significantly extending our maturity profile and providing us with greater flexibility to execute on our strategic priorities. We believe we are well positioned from a debt maturity perspective with no large maturities until the third quarter, 2029. Revenue growth and expanding profitability are driving stronger cash generation, which in turn provides greater financial flexibility to invest in our business and create long-term shareholder value. We look forward to discussing this in greater detail at our Investor Day on November 17th. Turning to the right side of the slide, innovation is key to our ongoing growth and success as well as our improving financial performance. Importantly, our growth is becoming increasingly broad-based with positive momentum across the business. In airline technology, commercial momentum continues to build, and I'm excited about our recent wins in this space. We currently have four customer implementations completed or underway, reflecting the progress we are making across the business. We grew revenue in the quarter and continue to expect revenue growth for the full year. Our recent Sabre Mosaic and offer order win with Kenya Airways further reinforces the growing demand for our open, modular technology solutions. In Air Marketplace, we are executing against our growth priorities, focusing on expanding customer relationships and capturing additional share. We recently renewed our distribution agreement with United Airlines, including continued access to United's NDC content and related capabilities through Saver. This agreement reinforces Saver's position as the backbone of global travel commerce, connecting buyers and sellers of travel through our platform. NDC bookings also continue to grow, representing 5% of our total air marketplace bookings in the third quarter. Marketplace lodging and other bookings volumes grew 8% in the quarter, with growth across hotel, car, and rail. Hotel-related revenue grew 14% in the quarter, reflecting our success in driving higher hotel attach rates as well as strong growth in media. Hotel attach rates are now greater than 35% and we see meaningful opportunity to improve this metric as we continue to enhance our platform. Our payments business continues to deliver strong growth with more than $26 billion in annualized growth spend and quarterly growth spend increasing 27% year on year. Payments revenue grew at a double digit rate in the quarter with an annualized run rate of approximately $60 million. Importantly, these are the businesses and growth strategies driving our performance today. Turning to slide six, our key financial and operational metrics demonstrate that we are delivering broad-based growth across our business. Our positive quarterly trends reflect the disciplined execution of our strategy and the progress we're making against our long-term priorities. This progress together with our strong and many more. and Strong Cash Flow Generation. We believe this combination positions Sabre to deliver sustainable growth and create a compelling opportunity to drive significant long-term shareholder value. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike to walk through our third quarter financial results and our outlook in more detail.
Mike Randolfi
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Kurt, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide eight. We delivered another strong quarter with third quarter normalized adjusted EBITDA exceeding our outlook. Based on year-to-date performance and our outlook for the remainder of the year, we are reaffirming our full-year 2026 guidance for revenue and air marketplace bookings growth. For the second consecutive quarter, we are increasing our full-year 2026 guidance for both pro forma adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. Turning to the financials, total revenue was $738 million, an increase of 3% year-on-year. Meeting our expectations of flat to low single digit growth. Marketplace revenue grew $19 million, an increase of 3% due primarily to a 3% increase in average booking fee. Airline technology revenue grew 3% year on year to $144 million, in line with growth in passengers boarded and in line with our expectations. We expect fourth quarter revenue to be in the range of $140 million to $150 million. Thank you for joining us today. Third quarter normalized adjusted EBITDA increased 13% year-on-year to $170 million and normalized adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 200 basis points to 23%. As Kurt highlighted, this is our fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth. Operating income totaled $109 million, up 17% year-on-year. Turning to third quarter free cash flow, We reported negative $48 million, which included approximately $15 million associated with transaction fees for our recent $1.35 billion financing, maturing in 2032. This refinancing was treated as a debt modification. This resulted in transaction fees being recorded in operating cash flow rather than financing cash flow. Additionally, we paid $40 million of accrued interest associated with notes that were settled as part of the third quarter refinancing. Absent these payments, free cash flow would have been positive for the third quarter. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $688 million. This includes $78 million of cash used to settle certain notes in October. Moving to slide nine. Air marketplace bookings declined 1% in the quarter, reflecting continued pressure on global travel from the conflict in the Middle East and higher fuel prices. We estimate these factors represented a combined 300 to 400 basis point headwind in the quarter. As Kurt mentioned, excluding these headwinds, third quarter air marketplace bookings growth would have been positive. Revenue grew 3% in the third quarter, primarily attributed to growth in marketplace revenue driven by higher average booking fee as well as growth in airline technology. Our normalized adjusted EBITDA result of $170 million was favorable to our guide of $155 million by $15 million. Approximately $5 million of the outperformance was driven by higher gross profit reflecting growth in average booking fee. The remaining $10 million of outperformance reflected lower adjusted technology expenses and a tax refund benefit. All in, We are pleased with this quarter's results. Turning to slide 10, during the third quarter, we successfully completed a refinancing and issued a $1.35 billion notes offering maturing in 2032. Our strong year-to-day performance helped drive significant investor demand, allowing us to secure a lower interest rate on the new debt. Importantly, we have no large debt maturities until the third quarter of 2029, providing us with significant flexibility as we execute on our growth strategies. Moving to slide 11 and our outlook for 2026. Based on our strong year-to-date performance and fourth quarter outlook, we are raising our full year 2026 guidance for pro forma adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter. We are increasing pro forma adjusted EBITDA guidance by $10 million to approximately $610 million, representing 14% year-on-year growth. We are also raising our free cash flow outlook to approximately negative $50 million, including approximately $60 million in restructuring costs associated with our inflation offset program. Excluding these costs, we would expect to generate positive free cash flow in 2026. The primary driver of our adjusted EBITDA outlook is an increased expectation for 2026 gross margin of approximately 57% versus a prior range of 56% to 57%. Our outlook for full-year air marketplace bookings, revenue growth, and operating expenses remains unchanged. Turning to adjusted technology expense and CapEx. We see opportunities to increase fourth quarter investments in areas that support our 2027 growth strategies. As a result, we continue to expect a low single digit increase in adjusted technology expense for the full year and we are slightly increasing our 2026 CapEx outlook by $5 million to approximately $95 million. We expect full year cash interest of approximately $445 million and reflecting the impact and timing of our third quarter refinancing. As a reminder, within the website financials available on our investor relations website, we provide a quarterly interest walk. Our expectations for cash taxes and other increased to $60 million, primarily due to approximately $20 million of transaction fees impacting operating cash flow. We are pleased with our third quarter and year-to-date performance. Our increased outlook for both full-year 2026 pro forma justity bada and free cash flow reinforces our confidence in our ability to deliver sustained growth and positive free cash flow in 2027 and going forward. Before we open the call for questions, I want to remind everyone that we plan to provide multi-year financial projections at our Invest Your Day on November 17th. As a result, we will defer any questions about our outlook for 2027 and beyond until that event. and with that operator, please open the line for questions.
Marvin
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. At this time, we'll conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you'll need to press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. And our first question comes from the line of Victor Chang of Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Victor Chang
Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe can you comment on a bit on the current developments with Agenda AI? There are a number of personal AI agents out there making the bookings, and some of them have signed deals with other aggregators. where are these the opportunities for Sabre to be positioned within that ecosystem and then follow up on that what are your expectations on agentic bookings going forward you know in the next couple years will it be a significant part of airline bookings thank you thank you Victor with respect to agentic as we have spoken about uh previously we believe that over time conversational commerce and agentic AI will become an important
Kurt Ekert
President and Chief Executive Officer
vehicle for not only search but also for booking and fulfillment of travel transactions. What you've seen from most of the large LLM platforms to date is testing as they try to figure out their commercial model and most of them still remain more focused on enterprise than consumer opportunity. The feedback that we've gotten from them is they're seeking an end-to-end agent experience where the consumer or the corporate traveler would do a search Shopping, booking, fulfillment, full servicing and changes, etc. We believe Sabre is extremely well positioned. We sit on 50 petabytes of data. We do 20,000 air shops per second through Sabre. We have the combination of the most comprehensive air and hotel content portfolio in the world with very sophisticated algorithms and caching capabilities on top of that. In addition to workflow, we were first to market with our MCP server and our agentic API capabilities. and we're in conversation with all of the large genetic platforms. So we believe this is a significant potential growth accelerant to Sabre. That's not currently in the expectations that we've talked about for next year, which to reiterate, what we spoke about previously was mid single digit, both volume and revenue growth. And again, AI would be an upside to that. So Victor, we feel like we're very well positioned. It's in the very early innings of this game, but we're pursuing this aggressively.
Victor Chang
Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America
Thank you. And maybe a follow up on that, on the look book ratio, which obviously is increasing drastically with AI, is there an opportunity for you to benefit from it in terms of providing more surge capabilities and just how should we think about the cost of compute? Are you going to be able to pass it on to agencies or airlines?
Kurt Ekert
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, so very good question. So first of all, what's very important about Sabre is the data we already sit on. When a consumer in a conversational commerce interface does a search prospectively, they're unlikely to get pages of results. They might get three or four results back to say, which do you want me to book? And so the days of the consumer out there shopping through web pages, that's going to change fundamentally. In order to provide a relevant, proper search response and to basically provide a good UI, UX, it is fundamental you have good data and that you cache the results that are there as well. So there's no question that you see exponential increases in look to book with conversational shopping versus traditional fixed format shopping. What we do because we have a lot of information about that search and we have a lot of information about the individuals and we can put caching in front of those searches is we're able to cache between 80 and 90% of the queries that come into the Sabre system. We're able to rely on the data we have and therefore the efficiency from a compute standpoint for us is much better than it would be in the absence of having that data. How this will come to market commercially, meaning will you charge for compute or activity? Will you charge for bookings? I think it's still very early to say so. What we're seeking is to get our fair share of wallet. We think the commercial opportunity is going to be very compelling.
Marvin
Conference Call Operator
Got it. Thank you. Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jack Halper of Cancer Physio. Your line's now open.
Jack Halper
Equity Research Analyst
Hey guys, thanks for taking my questions. First, just on some of the travel demand outlook into 4Q in 2027, what are you hearing from airline agency customers about maybe corporate versus leisure, international versus domestic, Middle East conflict? Seems like commentary from the OTAs and airlines has been a little bit mixed for the near term, so curious what you guys are hearing. That's kind of my first question.
Kurt Ekert
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I'd say it's a very mixed bag, Jack. What you've seen to date through Q3 and what we've seen in terms of trading results early in Q4 is corporate demand globally is very strong. And it's basically exhibiting, despite sort of the price increases, we've seen both volume increases and obviously the airlines and hoteliers report significant increases in their gross booking or turnover value. On the leisure side, there is no question that there has been impact to demand. That's most acute in EMEA and in Asia Pacific. You have a lot more low-cost carrier traction, for example, in Asia Pacific. And so the model doesn't hold up as well there. And that's baked into the results that we talked about here. When you look prospectively, obviously, the war in the Middle East, that's going to be very important. And then there'll be a question of the timing of if and when that ends. And we do expect that to end at some point, but we don't know exactly when. Fuel prices should begin to adjust back toward normalcy. that will take some time. There's a difference between when you get the fuel out of the ground and you refine it, et cetera. So we think given the capacity reductions that have happened to date, you're going to see a little bit of chill on the growth versus what you would have in a normal environment. But when you look forward and you look at what airlines have stated, they are projecting capacity growth into next year. And I think that capacity growth will accelerate and expand as the war of the fuel impact abates. So our expectation going forward when we talk about mid-single-digit bookings growth for next year is we're not getting help necessarily by the external market, but we're not getting hindered, meaning we expect it to be a fixed walk, if not hopefully slightly better than it is today, but we're not expecting a robust recovery per se into next year. We'll speak about this a bit more at the Investor Day on November 17th.
Jack Halper
Equity Research Analyst
Great. It's very helpful. And then if I could ask one more just sort of on your lodging and hotels momentum, obviously that's been really healthy over the past couple of quarters and especially this quarter. Can you just talk about maybe a little bit more like under the hood, what's driving the higher attach rates, maybe where you think that this can kind of get to over time as a kind of larger mix of the business? Thanks.
Kurt Ekert
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thank you, Jack. And so as I specified on the call, We're now at an attached rate of over 35%. This is overall the lodging ground hotel business is a $400 million top line business for us, performing very well. What we've seen, the reason that we're growing this business is twofold. Number one is we've added significant incremental content. So you have private or corporate negotiated fares, public fares. We have OTA inventory in there. We have bed bank inventory. In the future, we'll likely add property on a, or content on a property level basis. and we've added significant functionality and product enhancement from a buyer side standpoint. We're also upgrading to the most modern connectivity solutions that we can with all of our supplier partners and so we think the opportunity here is very significant. Today, our business provides yield to hoteliers that is premium to number one, our competitive set, number two, to every other distribution channel that they have. All of the third party as well as their direct distribution channels We do that at a cost of sale of between 1% and 2% on average for our hotel customers. So premium revenue at a very efficient price point. We're very corporate-centric in that distribution today. There's a massive unlock opportunity for us with leisure that we're going to go after in the next couple of years.
Jack Halper
Equity Research Analyst
Great. Thank you, guys.
Marvin
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Again, as a reminder to ask a question, you'll need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. Our next question comes from the line of Alex Irving of Furnishing Unified Now Open.
Alex Irving
Equity Research Analyst, Bernstein
Hi, good morning. My question is on Mosaic. In a couple of quarters since you've had Millie Gormley's flow on this, I'd like to understand better what's the appetite among airlines at the moment to offer all the solutions. So looking at this as a priority, or is it more kind of on hiatus when there's a fuel price crisis and other things that airlines are focused on in the short term? Any comments on pipeline would be great. Thank you.
Kurt Ekert
President and Chief Executive Officer
Alex, thank you. And I believe the question is Sabre Mosaic, our offer and order modular solution for airline technology. We're seeing very significant demand for the Sabre Mosaic solution. As we've talked about before, much of that demand is on the offer side where airlines can implement revenue enhancing or accretive models without operational disruption. And they can do that in modular fashion, whether it's on top of a Sabre and many more. that we've either implemented or will be implementing for new carriers this calendar year. In a couple of cases, those are actually full conversions of both PSS and offer order. But again, for the most part, most airlines don't want to do a PSS to PSS migration. If they're going to do a large platform migration, they want it to be on to offer an order from their legacy PSS. The beauty of what we have built, which is modular, cloud native, and AI infused, is they can implement those modules at a time and a speed of their choosing and make that a much easier change effort on their side. So we believe, and the great thing is, airline technology for us has now turned back into a growth business after being a challenge part of the business for many years. And we think this is going to be a key growth vector for us going forward.
Alex Irving
Equity Research Analyst, Bernstein
Understood. A little quick follow-up, if I may. Around the carriers that you're implementing this year, the four carriers onto the offer side of things, as that annualizes, should we expect to see that visible in the revenue per PB? Or is it maybe less accretive that it will get sort of lost in the mix?
Kurt Ekert
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, other than the commentary we've already provided for 2027, we're not going to comment on that today. We'll do that at Investor Day. Alex, we'll talk about the financial projections as well there.
Alex Irving
Equity Research Analyst, Bernstein
All right, thank you.
Marvin
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. I'm sure no further questions at this time. I'm now turning back to Kurt Ekert for closing remarks.
Kurt Ekert
President and Chief Executive Officer
I will thank you everyone for your interest and for your support. We look forward to a robust conversation on November 17th and wish everybody well.
Marvin
Conference Call Operator
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect.