SOC Sable Offshore Corp.

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Sable Offshore Corp. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Ronnie
Conference Call Operator
Hello and welcome to the Disabled Offshore Corp. earnings call. We ask that you please hold all questions until the completion of the formal remarks, at which time you will be given instructions for the question and answer session. Also, as a reminder, this conference is being recorded today. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. Harrison Breaud, you may begin.
Harrison Breaud
Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, Sable Offshore Corp.
Thank you, Ronnie. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I am Harrison Breaud, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations for Sable Offshore Corp. And joining me today to discuss our results are the following Sable Executive Committee members. Jim Flores, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Caldwell Flores, President and Chief Operating Officer, Gregory Patrinely, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Anthony Duenner, the Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary, as well as various other members of the Sable team. Please refer to our website to download a copy of our new investor presentation posted today, as well as our recently filed financial statements, which will both be discussed on this call. We will actively display the presentation on this webcast and may reference certain content by page number. Our executive team will be available after prepared remarks for Q&A. Please note that we will be making statements during this call that are forward-looking. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements because of factors discussed in our earnings release. In our investor presentation, in the comments made during this conference call, and in our most recent Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement. With that, I will proceed to our prepared remarks. Stable Offshore delivered another quarter of growth and progress towards realizing the full value of the Santa Ynez unit. The third quarter of 2026 was our second full quarter of oil sales. As previously announced, we increased our volume sold by nearly 30% quarter over quarter and we are continually working to improve our ability to unleash the full capability of the Santinez unit. Platform Harmony and Platform Heritage wells are outperforming with little to no decline in production from existing wells. Additionally, results from PERFAD operations remain encouraging and have performed at the upper end of management expectations at an average observed rate of over 700 barrels per day of additional production per PERFAD. Financially, this was our second quarter with revenue, full quarter with revenue, and we were pleased to see 13% quarter-over-quarter growth. From a balance sheet perspective, we completed our refinancing in the beginning of the quarter and began to deleverage the business with our initial amortization payment on the term loan B at the end of the third quarter. We look forward to receiving our updated year-end reserve report reflecting the strong well results we have seen to date and to further optimization of our balance sheet with longer term, cheaper debt. In Q3, our liquidity was impacted by the previously announced downstream constraints, and we prudently deployed our ATM program to bolster our working capital. Sable has not utilized the ATM thus far in the fourth quarter, and we are not permitted to comment on potential ATM usage or potential lack of usage on a forward-looking basis. With that, I will turn it over to Jim Flores for an operational update. Thank you, Harrison.
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
And the company had a great third quarter as far as progress, still working on the sales aspect. But rolling into the fourth quarter, early October last month, Sable sole crude purchaser refinery began to reduce Sable SYU OCS crude purchases. After two and a half weeks without crude purchases, Sable management began remarketing our crude to the other three refineries in the Los Angeles market. Sable has now successfully entered into sales agreements with all three refineries. As of last week, all have resumed sales to those refineries and all four of our refineries are now taking our crude. Sable expects the sales volumes to increase once each refinery understands best how to refine our Sable SYUC crude oil going forward. Sable have a balanced sales marketing strategy with all four refineries and we appreciate their cooperation from our biorefineries and pipeline partners. With most of our October production inventory in the Sable onshore storage tanks and pipeline facilities, Sable management began marketing this inventory as a bulk crude sale in November. Sable is actively in discussions with over half a dozen crude purchasers to buy up to 1.3 million barrels of Sable Oil, and a lump sum payment made in November with Sable delivering that crude on an agreed upon schedule. The amount of oil we sold in October was about 160,000 barrels before we were shut in. So an additional 900,000 barrels is our bogey for October, but we're putting a whole 1.3 million barrels for sale to achieve our revenue goals for October and our November check. Also working with JP Morgan on potential opportunities to utilize our $100 million unsecured loan basket permitted under our senior secured term loan agreement. And furthermore, as a third option for additional funds if needed, we would offer a pipe opportunity to investors to provide necessary liquidity to our company in the fourth quarter. And looking forward to a strong 2027 with our SYU field on full production. Direct Operations Platform Harmony and Heritage continue to have strong production performance with no increase in gas production along with steady oil rates and wellhead pressures. At Platform Hondo, Sable operating teams completed the reconstruction and internal operational commissioning in the third quarter, and in the fourth quarter thus far, Sable submitted all the final paperwork to the Marine Minerals Administration, or MMA, reflecting all the platform upgrades. Both in-person MMA safety inspection and restart production are scheduled within the month of November ahead of fully ramping up the platform and flowing all of its 15 producing wells to sales in December this year. We are proud of the work we've done on Platform Honda in bringing it up to modern safety standards like its sister platforms, Harmony and Heritage, and preparing to safely deliver the barrels to the market. along with the five completed perf ads. We look forward to robust production out of our platform content. Harrison, with that, I'll turn it over back to you in Q&A.
Harrison Breaud
Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, Sable Offshore Corp.
Ronnie, please proceed with Q&A. I believe we have Neil Dingman from William Blair first.
Ronnie
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please click on the raised hand button which can be found on the black bar at the bottom of your screen. When it is your turn, you will receive a message on your screen from the host allowing you to talk, and then you will hear your name called. Please accept, unmute your audio, and ask your question. We will wait one moment to allow the queue to form. Your first question will come from Neil Dingman with William Blair. Please unmute your audio and ask your question.
Neil Dingmann
Analyst, William Blair
Morning, thanks for the time, Jim. My first question, just maybe on the Honda, you gave a lot of comments on the press release. Maybe just any more color you could get, it seems like, and a lot of confidence that that will be coming in November. So I guess call it sort of cross the T's, dotting the I's, and again, everything with the state and the agencies seem to be on track, but anything you can add on that just for November?
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Well, the best thing about November structurally is that When you're looking for approval from regulators and so forth, having the Thanksgiving holidays is a backstop. So we fully expect to be flowing wells in the last week of November and ramped up into December. And that's gonna be key for our year-end reserve report, getting 30 days of good production on those wells or close to it. So our third party engineers can give us full credit for that. And that's really, it still achieves our target. We're not that concerned with not having production here in November out of Hondo because we couldn't sell the oil anyway from the standpoint of we've got plenty of oil to sell. But we look forward to having that crude oil in December once we have all four of our fineries all ramped up and taking all of our crude. So that's the first available time we can take the crude for sales anyway. So unfortunately, that's the way it all fits together.
Neil Dingmann
Analyst, William Blair
Fantastic. And then just secondly, just On the political environment around the California SPR, Jim, any less confident, more confident? Just obviously given what happened with the election and all, just maybe talk about how you see the landscape going forward around the California SPR.
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Yeah, I guess the underlying factor there is there's a lot of studies going on here at DOE and stuff like that trying to make sure they're doing it the right way and everything. but remember there's no legislation needed for the SBR. It's already been laws passed on the 1975 Strategic Petroleum Reserve Act and we follow under that law and so forth. All it needs now is strictly executive action out of DOE and as long as we still have the White House support which as late as yesterday that got affirmed to us, they're just trying to make sure they dot the I's and cross all the T's and I'm sure there's other political Your next question will come from Michael Furrow with Pickering Energy Partners. Please unmute your audio and ask your question. Hey, morning, stable team. Can you hear me okay? Yeah.
Michael Furrow
Analyst, Pickering Energy Partners
Okay, great. All right, look, I think we just maybe want to start with liquidity, right? I think that's probably the number one question people are trying to get answered here. Jim, appreciate the comments about the $100 million unsecured loan basket and the potential pipe. But maybe we could just start with the 1.3 million barrels of bulk crude available for sale. Can you provide more details about where you're at in that process and can you explain how 1.3 million barrels of crude is available just given the storage capacity at Las Flores Canyon? I think we're trying to get an idea of what options are available and what kind of working capital tailwinds you could have from this potential sale.
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Sure. Starting at the SYU inlet valve to our tanks at Las Flores Canyon, you have 540,000 barrels of tank capacity there. So the sales point is upstream of those tanks. So you include those tanks plus the 520,000 barrels of lime fill plus the tanks we have at Pentland and the pipeline between Pentland and Amedeo and Amedeo to Line 2000. You add all that together, it's about 1.37 million barrels of total capacity. So what we're doing right now as we're flowing and Harrison Harmon. We're packing that system. So we'll have 1.3 million barrels in that system the whole time. So at the time we do the Ford sale, it'll be a third party purchase, just like our normal course of business. They will take title to the crude oil. We will continue to provide storage services and transportation services on the crude oil to the sales point below Meteo and Line 2000. at 1.3 million barrels. The deficit of production that we had in October is just over 900,000 barrels. The reason why we're offering the whole 1.3 million barrels, obviously there's going to be costs involved and the purchaser has to make a profit, so a discount. So we're looking to plug all the October revenues with the revenue deficit with the sale of the oil that we have in those storage facilities all the way below immediate. and the 1.3 is all the barrels we have there. We'd sell more if we had them. Revenues are revenues, but that's the target that everybody's working for. Now we've been in touch with our refiners, our pipelines, and also traditional crude trading houses and so forth. And we've had robust results. We've got all the NDA signed last week. They're all doing their work. We expect term sheets as early as this week and it's going to be price and timing. and who wants the crude oil. So there's a hungry appetite market from the refining market and so forth. So it's just a back-to-back. They buy the crude and they'll resell it to the refiners there on the LA market. So it's a simple transaction. And we've also got approval from our lender, JP Morgan, to sign off on leasing the lean. So it's a true transfer of a product like we do on a daily basis with selling crude. that will not have any clawback by any of the holders here at Sable Offshore. So we've done this in the past, mainly with tankers internationally and that type of thing. So it's the same concept, but that's where all the crude oil is. And I hope I was clear on that.
Michael Furrow
Analyst, Pickering Energy Partners
Yeah, no, that makes sense. Thanks for the answer, Jim. Let's start with pipeline availability.
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
and Line 2000 is 45,000 barrels of firm capacity that we have allocated, that we're holding on to. On top of that, there's Line M70, which is now that we're selling to PBF. We hope to by then be selling oil directly into PBF as well. That's not confirmed, but that could be another 10 to 15,000 barrels a day there. That's the optimal mixture of 45 on Line 2000 and 15 on Line M70 once we get everything all settled out. Do we get that done by December 1st? I hope so, but that's an unknown at this point in time, other than the 45,000 barrels on Line 2000.
Ronnie
Conference Call Operator
Your next question will come from David Beckelbaum with Stifel. Please unmute your audio and ask your question.
David Deckelbaum
Analyst, Stifel
Thanks for taking my questions, Jim. Sure. I wanted to just get back to the conversation around mix. You introduced the three new refiners and the sales agreements. Can you provide any color on how that influences your differentials relative to Brent? And then the capacity that you're selling into, I think that you disclosed on those three refiners look like it's just under 20,000 barrels a day. Is that capacity amongst the new refiners anticipated to grow X that line 70?
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Yes, all three of them are starter levels. They just pick different levels. For instance, Marathon picked 1,000 barrels today. They just ran to 30,000, and we haven't heard that they had any complaints or whatever, so they're coming back to us. What we push the three new refiners to is longer-term term contracts with better pricing. Right now, for the month of November, we have walk-up differentials, which they average around the same thing we were getting with Chevron, no improvements. from a standpoint. Some are a little better, some are a little worse. But when we go into hopefully term contracts and six months or a year contracts that we're trying to give with these cats, then we'll have, we could see some differential improvement there, but not in November and December. Or maybe by December, but for sure not in November.
David Deckelbaum
Analyst, Stifel
I guess it seems as we walk through all of these, if the company is going to be approaching the mid to upper 30s on a gross basis, you should be approaching free cash neutrality without perhaps even some generation with upside, obviously, as you bring more barrels online. Maybe you could square how you see the progression towards free cash and maybe add a little bit of color on what's happening on the operating cost side in the fourth quarter because it was my understanding that 3Q would obviously be high because you're still carrying that excess crew around Hondo.
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Yeah, so just thinking about the volumes and so forth, like we talked about, you know, the 45,000 barrels in line 2000 plus additional sales in the M-70 line to PBF now that we're selling to those guys. Those can be critical in the volumes. We'll be able to hit those volumes pretty easy with all the wells. As far as LOE analysis, the LOEs in the fourth quarter will not be the lowest because of the additional hondo commissioning that we've had to do by first quarter. So everything just kind of rolls over in the first quarter. When you look at the gap of production, 930, 940,000 barrels in October, That's the revenues we're trying to plug with the bulk crude oil sales or tapping the unsecured credit or thirdly in some equity in a pipe. We're going to make sure we make it through all the way through to the first quarter. Then you're looking at a situation where it's going to be volume. We settle down between 15,000 to 20,000 barrels per refiner, a nice comfortable amount. And they all do a lot of blending of the different barrels to get the right cocktail for their refineries. and they can all easily digest that amount. So I think in the first quarter we're looking at a real good balanced marketing slate and hopefully with some term contracts with some better differentials to them. But that's all going to be, you know, based on all the hard work we're going to do here in the fourth quarter to get that kicked off.
David Deckelbaum
Analyst, Stifel
Appreciate the color. Good luck to you guys. Thank you.
Ronnie
Conference Call Operator
Your next question will come from Leo Mariani with Roth. Please unmute your audio and ask your question.
Leo Mariani
Analyst, Roth
Thanks. So just looking at your kind of revised guidance on sales for the second half of 26, it's still a very wide range here. Can you provide a little bit of color around that range? I guess presumably at the lower end, perhaps you can't make the bulk sale and maybe just provide kind of a little bit more insight and that'd be great.
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Well, you take the sales in our projection here the 20-something, Harrison, that we have in the presentation. 20 to 30. 20 to 30. And you can add about 14,000 barrels a day, which is about a million two, million three, in the bulk sale on a per day basis. And you end up with 35,000 to 38,000 barrels a day for the fourth quarter, not including any kind of ramp in December. . . . . .
Leo Mariani
Analyst, Roth
And I guess just, you know, presumably you obviously haven't executed the bulk sale yet, but just wanted to be a little clearer on the diffs. Should we assume kind of a similar diff in 4Q versus third quarter, which I guess was around $30 last quarter? Is that reasonable or do you think it could be a little worse this quarter?
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Yeah, I've said that earlier. That's the right shift code.
Gregory Patrinely
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Yeah, well, this is Gregory Patrinely. We're in active negotiations on longer term contracts and we'll update the market when it's appropriate on the diffs.
Leo Mariani
Analyst, Roth
Got it. Okay.
Ronnie
Conference Call Operator
Your next question will come from Charles Mead with Johnson Rice. Please unmute your audio and ask your question.
Charles Meade
Analyst, Johnson Rice
Good morning, Jim, to you and your whole team there at Sable. I think you, I want to ask you about this sales and turn rate. I think you addressed this in your answer to the last question, but Could you clarify the sales that you're guiding to for I think it was slide 7 and the number was $31,000 gross. Could you tell us how much are you selling today or this week and just clarify that $31,000 doesn't include or doesn't include any contribution from the bulk sales?
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Yeah, that's correct, Charles. And the sales, we're all sharing Line 2000. You're batching. We'll sell 80,000 barrels one day, and we'll sell 20,000 the next. It moves all around based on availability and plane schedule. We're finally scheduled for their service in that whole L.A. basin. So the aspect of that, we put it on a per-day basis. That's where they come out on a 30-day scale, but it moves around. That's why keeping our midstream tanks and pipeline completely full and have as much crude ready to go is going to be real important to maximize the sales and also for the physical delivery to the refineries, but also maximizing the proceeds on our bulk sale here toward the end of November.
Charles Meade
Analyst, Johnson Rice
Got it. Thank you. And I think someone else said before, I appreciate that you outlined some of your liquidity sources. That was helpful. Can you give us an idea what are the covenants or what are the constraints that you are focused on internally? I mean, is there a covenant or is it really just the amortization payments on the debt? What's really the ball to watch on that front?
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Charles, it's strictly cash needs. We have a 900,000 barrel hole in our oil sales forecast. You take the expenses and we have to plug that hole and so forth. I'll turn it over to Gregory to give you some of the details, but it's that simple. It's in and out.
Gregory Patrinely
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Yeah, I would say as we disclosed in our materials, you've got 110 to $120 million of cash spend between OpEx, G&A, and CapEx for the fourth quarter. That is prior to the amortization and interest payments on December 31, roughly call it $53 million. So you've got about $165 to $175 million of cash spent in the fourth quarter. We think between the current cash balance of about $38 million, the November revenue from our sales of 31,000 barrels a day, and the proceeds from this bulk sale will potentially solve this hole. And if there is a need beyond that, as Jim mentioned, we've got options available to us under the $100 million unsecured basket to top that up. Or if we need to, we can do a pipe offering. But that's how we're thinking about it.
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Yeah, and Charles, I want to put a little finer point on it. Let's say we get $60 million out of the bulk sale. I'm not pricing it. $75 million, whatever the highest price is going to be. and if we can make up the deficit on that with the unsecured line of credit, we're good. If we need to top it off with a small pipe, we'll do it at that point in time. But it's going to roll from that standpoint. We may just do the first option, may just do the first two options, may have to do all three, but we'll get to the objective liquidity and get into the first quarter of 27 when we get to all our free cash flow. Jake.
Ronnie
Conference Call Operator
Your next question will come from Noel Parks with Toohey Brothers Investment Research. Please unmute your audio and ask your question. Noel, your line is open. Please unmute your audio and ask your question.
Noel Parks
Analyst, Tuohy Brothers Investment Research
Hi, good morning. Can you hear me now?
Michael Furrow
Analyst, Pickering Energy Partners
Yeah.
Noel Parks
Analyst, Tuohy Brothers Investment Research
Oh, great. You know, I... I want to sort of step back a bit and just, you know, from the perspective of perhaps somebody who's looking at the story, the Sable story at arm's length right now, maybe if they're not too familiar with it, you know, on the one hand, there is the production and the resource in place that You have a well-established resource, just historically, and then with the performance matching your expectations as you brought the field back online. Separate from that, there is takeaway, marketing, the sorts of issues that have, of course, been coming and going recently. And so, but of course, everything that's happening on that end really, you know, to my mind, there's no comment on the geology that comes out of any of the sort of the near term sort of, you know, marketing or delivery issues. So I guess I'm just wondering to sort of help somebody along with understanding sort of the near term variability, you know, risk on the delivery side. All right, let's talk about geology and production first, okay, and then we'll go to the next one. The aspect that we have not seen the best of this field yet.
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
We're studying the field from the standpoint of the last 11 years being shut in and the repressurization of the field. It's almost like you get to study the field and then if there's any change of strategy, you get to start over with almost a brand new oil field. And when we look at the large oil fields around the world and we look at oil fields like Prudhoe Bay and Gowar and people like that, where they injected the gas, never took any of the gas out because they couldn't sell the gas at Prudhoe. and Gowar, they wanted to make sure they maintain the GR reservoir pressure. When they did that, their recoveries are in the high 50%. We're projecting a 15% recovery in our oil field, but as we've seen where the gas has gone back in the solution, we're making almost all the oil and very little, just enough gas to run our equipment and so forth. We've done our internal study when we meet with our third-party engineers to make sure they understand that we're not going to be selling gas out of this field going forward, but we're going to be producing a lot more oil and a lot more recovery. And we expect our recoveries to as much as double from 15% to 30%. And when you multiply it times 15.6 billion barrels, you get some big numbers. And the thought process there is also bound in the science because what happens is with that gas pressurization maintenance and leaving things and the GOR are the same, and Oil and Solution, is that you get a much lower decline curve. Like right now, our base decline is 8%. We think the decline curve under that scenario will be 4%. And that's one of the things, it'll take a little time maybe this year coming up as far as our third-party reservoir engineers, but when you use a 4% decline rate for a field of this size, on Peru Reserves and PDP and we convert the PDMP, you get some really big numbers. So we haven't, although the production has been robust and so forth and the pressures have been incredibly stable, is that we haven't seen the best of it yet. And we're going to manage this field differently going forward with the benefit of hindsight of how the field performed when they were selling a lot of gas off the field. So that's a big upside coming on the production side. On the surface side, initially the marketing was all political, where we had to work through Santa Barbara County and all their problems and issues and do everything safely, as well as through California, their requirements, and then make sure we met all the requirements of the U.S. government and the Department of Transportation, PHMSA, and the Department of Energy and the Department of Interior. We've done all that, and we've won almost all of our lawsuits there that matter, and some of them are still pending. and we're cleaning all that up by early next year. We continue to operate under the Defense Production Act authorization by the President of the United States and we'll continue to build strategies around the SPR and also legislative strategies to have enduring posture on that to where we get on with just doing our business safely and professionally producing oil and gas for all of California. You know, we fill up 72 million cars a year in California, and that's not insignificant. We're about 22 to 25% of the total in state California. And when the Department of War talked to them and so forth about force preparedness and force projection, we're a cornerstone of their strategy. And we continue to enjoy their support to make sure they have enough fuel to fuel the jets and stuff if anything happens in the Pacific theater. So the eyes are wide open on how important this asset is to the United States and also California, even besides all the friction we have. Now, selling into a confined or concentrated refinery market, we had a goal of first quarter, starting to diversify our refinery customers for our crude oil. Obviously in October it blew up in our face and we're very apologetic for that. and I would think after 45 years I should know better but I've kind of fell asleep because of our cozy relationship there and due to some tank issues with the refiner and so forth they wanted to upgrade their tanks and it just doesn't fit with our timing that we'll never get caught like that again. So we're going to get out of this liquidity squeeze right here one way or the other and then we'll have a balanced sales force going forward. We'll have 92 wells on production. are some similar to those wells on production with high divisible rates, and we're looking forward to an outstanding 2027.
Noel Parks
Analyst, Tuohy Brothers Investment Research
Great. Thanks a lot. Yeah, thanks a lot. That's just sort of the sort of scope I was looking for. And thinking about reserves coming up, and you mentioned ideally 30 days of should be helpful as far as just input for the engineers for your reserves. I guess I'm thinking sort of on maybe a worst case or most sort of conservative scenario. Can you give a sense of what you are pretty confident you will be able to put forth in terms of data? Of course 1231 is the and many others. I'm just trying to get a sense of even kind of regardless of what happens with the SEC numbers, we have, I assume you'll have some ability to talk about, you know, updates to your reserving plate if you go down putting out three P reserves or something. But again, just sort of independent of exactly what happens over the next month, just what sort of be able to give on reserves.
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Yeah, we normally build up our PDP reserve report with Devin Sewell. and so forth so that we'll build off that same thing to add the reserves and our goal by the end of next year with our gas injection strategy to have all of our 3P reserves audited by Nell and Sewell by the end of next year and that we'll understand what we're doing, they'll understand what they're doing and put the best foot forward. So we're still probably 13 months away from the best picture but it's been a lot better picture in the first quarter than what you saw in the first quarter last year.
Ronnie
Conference Call Operator
Our last question will come from David Deckelbaum with Stifle. Please unmute your audio and ask your question.
David Deckelbaum
Analyst, Stifel
Sorry to sneak another one in here. Jim, I just wanted to ask, as you think about Hondo and December, once we get through approvals on the MMA side, can you remind us the uplift that you expect on the pricing for those barrels? And if we were in the same environment today, Would you just be curtailing more production in Heritage and Harmony and producing in Tejando at the full 10,000 a day gross so that you would see that a third of your production would be benefiting from perhaps pricing that's more analogous to Brent?
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Yeah, that's what we're going to try to do. you know try to achieve David you know again is trying to achieve and seeing the reality of it I'm just kind of hesitant there from a standpoint we'll do that but one one thing one thing that we uh uh uh you know because these wells are outperforming and not only outperforming the oil side also with water production and so forth we've got to make sure that we manage that through our Lost Boys Canyon processing facility mainly on the water handling and so forth uh uh Exxon is down that downsized some of the equipment we have huge pipes we can on a volumetric pipe basis, we can do a lot. But as far as the processing equipment, and we don't want to overload that. So you're going to see the emphasis be on the wells with the higher oil cut versus the lower oil cut and the higher water cut. So we'll manage to do that. So you should have an improvement there. What we're hoping to do is really on the term contracts, get better pricing. That's going to be the key. and so the other refiners are really interested in term contracts and we'll try to push that as far as we can. But right now, it's a tough market. You've got the Western Canada Select coming into the Pacific Rim. You've got a lot of the Venezuelan crude that used to go to China now coming to the Gulf Coast and some of that's bouncing through the Panama Canal. So the heavy crude market is one of these point in times where it's got ample supply and the refiners are taking their Take advantage of it. So we're we're happy that they're taking our crude. We're looking forward to better pricing if we can get it. But we got to be realistic about the market we're in right now. I mean, when I first started in the L.A. basin back in, you know, 100 years ago, you know, we had 50 percent deaths and we were lucky, lucky, you know, selling oil at 18, 18 bucks. We got $9 and we're glad to get it. And then I got to the point where we got down to 3% deaths when we were selling oil to Conoco at Santa Maria out of PXP, which was onshore, and just the same heavy oil we had here was a premium. So the market's going to move around. We're basically going to have to be a price taker from that standpoint. but right now we're focused on volumes and then we'll spend all next year working on differentials. That's just another area where we can improve. That's what we're looking at from here. But we can't give you any concrete beyond where the diffs are right now.
David Deckelbaum
Analyst, Stifel
I appreciate it, Jim. Thanks for that.
Charles Meade
Analyst, Johnson Rice
Sure. Sure.
Ronnie
Conference Call Operator
We have time for one more question from Lloyd Byrne with Jefferies. Please unmute your audio and ask your question.
Lloyd Byrne
Analyst, Jefferies
Hey, Jim, can you just go back through, is there anything left with the MMA that you guys have to provide? And then are there any hurdles left on their approval of Hondo? And then I have just one quick follow up.
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Yeah, Lloyd, the answer to that is not to our knowledge. The key thing about Hondo, we've tested all the valves, we've tested all the things that can go wrong, we think, from a standpoint. on the deal, and they've been out there personally testing. So that's the critical area. If we have a problem with one of those valves, you have to go replace it, and we can't find it. It turns into a three-week delay. It doesn't sound like much, but you can imagine this kind of operation it is. So we've gotten over that deal and so forth. It's all with them. We have a very close relationship with everybody, the MMA, Kenny and those guys. And with the Thanksgiving holidays coming up, we think we have the right backstop to get everything through the government approval. and we've heard nothing to the contrary there. And so we're scheduled right now to start flowing well the Monday after Thanksgiving.
Lloyd Byrne
Analyst, Jefferies
Okay. And then is there anything on the legal side that's pending that we should keep an eye out for? Any court decisions that you would highlight?
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Yeah, what I'd highlight basically is all the court decisions that we've won, they're obviously all on appeal. The Ninth Circuit and so forth is going through all those appeals and so forth. The Judge Wilson ruling was key, where they defended the FEMSA jurisdiction on the pipeline and so forth. So as the U.S. Justice Department and the federal government continues to iron this thing out, that it's going to be more of a cleanup all the way through the middle of next year. along those lines. We don't see any obstacles there. We're continuing to work with supporting the DPA through the SPR. And that's just political timing at this point in time. There's no legislation required to get that approved. And then there's additional legislation on the NDAA that hopefully will get signed before year end that cleans up those issues. So we've done everything we could there and we'll continue to monitor it. And as long as we have White House support, then we're in good shape. So that's where we are.
Ronnie
Conference Call Operator
This completes the allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Jim Flores for any closing remarks.
Jim Flores
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sable Offshore Corp.
Thank you all for participating. We're on it. And we look forward to making all our liquidity announcements and getting everybody right with the world. And thank you all for your support. And we'll be back in touch. Goodbye.
Ronnie
Conference Call Operator
Thank you for joining the Sable Offshore Corp. Investor Update Call. You may now disconnect.