STAG STAG Industrial, Inc.

NYSE
$36.86

STAG Industrial, Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

AI Conference Call Analysis

Sign in or subscribe to read.
Conference Operator
Operator
Greetings. Welcome to the Stagg Industrial, Inc. 3rd Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. The question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press SAR 0 on your telephone keypad. Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Steve Xiarhos, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, Steve. You may begin.
Steve Xiarhos
Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you. Welcome to Stagg Industrial's conference call covering the third quarter 2026 results. In addition to the press release distributed yesterday, we have posted an unaudited quarterly supplemental information presentation on the company's website at www.staggindustrial.com under the Investor Relations section. On today's call, The company's prepared remarks and answers to your questions will contain forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements address matters that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those discussed today. Examples of forward-looking statements include forecasts of core FFO, same-store NOI, G&A, acquisition and disposition volumes, retention rates, and other guidance, leasing prospects, rent collections, industry and economic trends, and other matters. We encourage all listeners to review the more detailed discussion related to these forward-looking statements contained in the company's filings with the SEC and the definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures contained in the supplemental information package available on the company's website. As a reminder, forward-looking statements represent management's estimates as of today. DAG Industrial assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. On today's call, you will hear from Bill Crooker, our Chief Executive Officer, and Matts Pinard, our Chief Financial Officer. Also here with us today are Mike Chase, are Chief Investment Officer, and Steve Kimball, our Chief Operating Officer, who are available to answer questions specific to the areas of focus. I'll now turn the call over to Bill.
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Steve.
Steve Kimball
Chief Operating Officer
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the third quarter earnings call for Stagg Industrial.
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
We're pleased to have you join us and look forward to discussing the third quarter 2026 results. The third quarter marked a continued improvement in industrial fundamentals with national vacancy rates down since last quarter. Net absorption totaled approximately 75 million square feet nationally, the highest quarterly figure since early 2023, and has now topped 69 million square feet in each of the last two quarters. Through nine months, the market has absorbed more than 186 million square feet, a pace we have not seen since 2022, and non-coastal markets drove 80% of year-to-date absorption. New construction remains disciplined. While development starts are up, product under construction totals less than 2% of existing inventory, with much of it already committed through pre-leasing or bill-to-suit agreements. We are seeing broad-based demand primarily from 3PLs, advanced manufacturing, and data center-related tenants. We have now leased 2.5 million square feet to data center-related tenants since the start of 2025. This data center-related leasing activity accounted for 26% of all of our new operating portfolio leasing during that same period. The table is set for us to see upward pressure on rent growth in many markets as leverage gradually shifts back to the landlord. We expect our market rent growth for next year to be in the range of 2% to 4%, an acceleration as compared to the 1.6% market rent growth expected for 2026. Geographically, the strength has been most pronounced in the markets where STAG is concentrated. Acquisition volume for the third quarter totaled $107.9 million. This consisted of two buildings with cash and straight-line cap rates of 6.9% and 7.2%, respectively. Subsequent to quarter end, we acquired one building for $55 million. at a cash and straight line cap rate of 6.7% and 7.1% respectively. In terms of our development platform, we have seven buildings or 1.8 million square feet of development activity that is not in service as of the end of Q3. These buildings are in various stages of development and have an expected stabilized yield of 7%. We executed two development leases this quarter, totaling 69,000 square feet, The first was a 47,000 square feet lease at our Resource Drive building in Reno, bringing that building to 62% leased. The other was for 21,000 square feet at our Piedmont Commerce Street building in Charlotte, bringing that building to 100% leased. With that, I will turn it over to Matts, who will cover our remaining results and guidance for 2026.
Matts Pinard
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. The core portfolio per share was 66 cents for the quarter, and increase of 1.5% as compared to last year. Net debt to annualized run rate adjusted EBITDA was equal to 5.1 times while liquidity stood at $546 million. During the quarter, we commenced 30 leases across 3.6 million square feet, generating cash and straight line leasing spreads of 23.8% and 35.7% respectively. The tension for the quarter was 90.3%. same-store cash and wide grew 3.5% for the quarter and 3.9% year-to-date. Year-to-date same-store cash and wide growth of 3.9% includes approximately 30 basis points of benefit related to a single tenant whose rent was unpaid as of the third quarter of 2025 and substantially collected in the fourth quarter of 2025. The benefit reverses in Q4, and we expect full-year same-store growth within our guidance range, which we revised upward since our last earnings call. Moving to capital market activity, as discussed in our last call, we did repay the $50 million private placement note fee, which matured on July 1st. Also mentioned on our last call in July, we combined our term loans A and F, both of which were set to mature in March of 2027, into a single $350 million term loan, maturing in January 2032. The swap fixed rate is 3.53% until March 2027, and 4.79% from then on until maturity. We also repriced our revolver and all of our term loans, saving five basis points across our bank debt. As of today, the company has total forward equity net proceeds of $70 million available to settle at our discretion. We're pleased to announce that in August of this year, Stagg received an investment grade rating from S&P Global Ratings. S&P has signed a rating of triple B to Stagg with a stable outlook. The company also maintains an investment grade rating of BBB with a stable outlook from Fitch and an investment grade rating of BAA2 with a stable outlook from Moody's. Moving to guidance, we have made the following updates. Average same-store occupancy guidance has been increased to a range of 96.75% to 97.25%, an increase of 25 basis points at the midpoint. Cash same-store growth guidance has also been increased from a range of 3% to 3.5%, to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% for the year. This increase is driven by the upward revision of occupancy expectations and lower than expected cash credit loss. We have narrowed the range of expected acquisition volume to a range of $530 million to $600 million. We now expect a stabilized capitalization rate range between 6.3% and 6.4%. G&A guidance has been increased to a range of $56 million to $57 million. These guidance changes result in an increase in corporate guidance to a range of $2.64 to $2.66 per share, an increase of $0.02 at the midpoint. 2026 guidance can be found on page 21 of our supplemental package, which is available in the investor relations section of our website. I will now turn the call back over to Bill.
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Matts, and thank you to our team for their continued hard work and achievement towards our 2026 goals. We will finish this year ahead of our initial budgets and are well positioned going into 2027. With that, I will turn it back to the operator for questions.
Conference Operator
Operator
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. We ask that each participant limit themselves to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. The confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys.
Conference Operator
Operator
One moment please while we pull for questions.
Conference Operator
Operator
Our first question is from Craig Mailman with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.
Craig Mailman
Analyst, Citigroup
Good morning, guys. Bill, appreciate your comment on your market rent growth expectation for 2027. Apologies if I missed this, but did you discuss where you think rent spreads are coming in and maybe give us an update on progress on 2027 expirations to date? I know you used to give this metric in the press release.
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, hey, Craig. Yeah, we didn't include that, but I can give an update now. We're about 40%. through our 2027 leasing plan. Those spreads on the 40% were 12% cash rollover spreads. The one nuance there is almost all of our fixed renewal options are in that 40%. So when you take those out, the spreads on that 40% was 17 and a half. We expect leasing spreads next year to be around 15%.
Craig Mailman
Analyst, Citigroup
Okay, that is helpful. And I know you guys, I'm asking for 2027. Now I'm going to get greedy and ask for 2028. But a lot of the questions I'm getting are just you guys and some of your peers have talked about this sort of mid to high teen spread for next year. Can you just walk us through the math or how we should think about maybe a normalized rate of decel or where like 28, 29 could be from a rent spread perspective on a cash basis and just kind of walk us through the math? and what that could look like.
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, do you want to go out to 30 and 31 too, or no? If your crystal ball is that good, go for it. No, I understand the question. The way we look at it, with moderate market rent growth, we're probably in the low double digits to mid double digits of leasing spreads as you kind of move out to 28 and 29. I mean, it kind of Wouldn't say it bottoms out in 27, but it should be pretty steady from here on out.
Conference Operator
Operator
Perfect. Thank you. You're welcome.
Conference Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Nick Thillman with Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Nick Thillman
Analyst, Baird
Hey, good morning, guys. Maybe you wanted to comment or get your thoughts on the updated deployment strategy. Obviously, the board's authorizing the buyback here. As you look across acquisitions with the interest rate rises, are you seeing more opportunities there? Or do you see opportunity on the buyback? I guess weighing all the buckets you can pick at, where are you seeing the best opportunity to deploy capital today?
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, it's interesting, Nick. I mean, it changes. The good thing is the buyback, it's another tool in our toolkit here. So when that's the best use of capital, we'll deploy it to that. And if we can find stabilized acquisitions at higher yields that we like those assets in those markets, we'll deploy it there. And historically, or at least in the past year, Two years, we've seen as developments has been our best opportunity to deploy capital. Right now, those developments are yielding 7% plus, and Build-A-Suit's a little bit inside of that. We saw we were able to pick off some nice acquisitions, and in this quarter, I think those came in at about a 6.9 cap rate. So we'll look across All those opportunities, and frankly, if none of them are what we view as a good opportunity to deploy capital, then we won't do any of it. So we've done a good job of allocating capital in the past, and this just gives us another tool to use if we see that as the best opportunity. Okay.
Nick Thillman
Analyst, Baird
And then maybe for my follow up, just on the overall development leasing and the progress you're seeing at some of your projects, I believe you guys underwrite 12 months post completion for lease up for a lot of these projects. So maybe just some of the bigger ones, how discussions have progressed on that front and where the overall tenant mix and how far along we are within the pipeline on executed deals.
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I can pass it over to Steve to walk through the details there, but I will say have developments that we've placed in service that are well within the 12-month lease-up. So I think that's something that needs to be factored into when you look at the progress on developments.
Steve Kimball
Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, thanks, Bill, and thanks, Nick. I get a few questions on the development side, so let me frame it a little bit first. This is becoming a core part of our business with over 100 million customers. You know, annual starts. And we expect that to trend up as we go forward. So if you're looking at page 10 and 11 of the supplemental, you know, we're tracking over $500 million of investment in 16 buildings. And we've spread that out across 11 markets and with 20% plus in the build-to-suit category. Okay. So, and as you two were just mentioning, we do underwrite 12 months of downtime for the spec construction. I think that's why Bill directed you to the couple of deals that we have stabilized and put into service as of September 30th. And those two are obviously 100% occupied. If you put those together with the assets that we're working on right now that are complete but not in service, that'd bring that occupancy number up a little higher to like 37%. But on the $1.8 million as a total that we have active projects to work on, let me just walk you through them quickly. In the under construction side, because I think there's some good news there, we're in Kansas City with 198,000 square foot deal. That's a 4% vacancy market, and we've had excellent activity on that, Nick. So we feel very good about that project. Dallas, that's a build to suit for 343,000 square feet. So construction's on time and we expect that delivery to be smooth. Then the third project is Phoenix. And we're only breaking ground in Phoenix right now and just starting that construction. But it's 184,000 square foot project in West Chandler, which is just off the I-10. and the Phoenix dynamic. So that market continued to improve with vacancies moving down closer to nine. They were a little bit higher prior to that. So there's a lot of activity in Phoenix and we feel really good about those projects. So the under construction bucket, 48% leased, there are 2027 deliveries and we think we'll lease up and feel comfortable with that 12 months of downtime. When you move to the more highlighted section, the complete not in service, We're really looking at three markets. I think the first property that's listed there, Resource Drive, we only have 28,000 square foot left to lease there. That's currently being demised with office built out. We expect that will be leased up pretty quickly. You move down to Reno, the Mount Anderson building, the 284, and candidly, that's the one project that probably sticks out that has the most leasing risk right now. The Reno market, when it comes to pure distribution fulfillment uses and the submarket we're in in North Valleys, has been slower. Now, the good news there is the trend is that vacancy is coming down. Absorption picked back up in the fourth quarter of 25 and has been consistently positive. But we do have some leasing challenges in the Reno North Valleys market as the traditional fulfillment logistics users have not pushed back out to Reno. So we do have activity there. We've had activity since we delivered it. We just haven't landed those deals as they tend to be multi-market opportunities and there's a lot of competition. Moving down to Charlotte. Charlotte is on the list here, but remember that was a two-building development. The first building leased within seven months. We did four leases in that building, just systematically leased it up. We are very active on the building that shows here, the $200,000. and those leases you can expect will come in at 40 to 50,000 square foot leases and I would expect we'll have three or four leases to lease up that final building. When you put the two buildings together, we should average 12 or 13 months of downtime to stabilization. So feeling good about that market and the progress that we have in Charlotte. And then the large project that really jumps off the page is our 500,000 square footer in Louisville. Again, a very healthy market, a 5.9% vacancy. We're in the right park. We're in the right submarket. And there's been a lot of very positive activity in that market with some of the competing buildings being taken down. And we are active as well with prospects for that building. So in general, we feel pretty good about the complete not-in-service portfolio.
Nick Thillman
Analyst, Baird
No, that's very thorough and I appreciate the time, guys.
Conference Operator
Operator
Thank you. You're welcome. Our next question is from Dave Rogers with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Dave Rodgers
Analyst, Raymond James
Yeah, hey, good morning, guys. Wanted to ask about the step-up in earnings from 3Q to 4Q. It's a pretty strong increase, you know, sequentially for this late in the year. So was leasing just well ahead of expectations? You know, is the business just performing better than anticipated? And then you mentioned the same store kind of flipped between 3 and 4Q. Can you quantify kind of what that looks like from the tenant last year?
Matts Pinard
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, absolutely. Hey, Dave. Good morning, Smiths. You're right. You know, if you were to take a look at the midpoint of our guidance, we would expect the step up in core for the fourth quarter. One of the drivers is the fact that what we acquired this quarter occurred literally in the last week of September. So you can get a full quarter of economics on the 6.9% cap rate deals. And then the same story, right? We increased occupancy credit losses, trending much better than we'd initially projected in February. We did moderate our expectation of credit loss in the last call, and we continue to outperform there. Those are the two biggest drivers. And was there a second part to your question?
Dave Rodgers
Analyst, Raymond James
You had mentioned that there was a same-store NOI kind of impact from the tenant last year. And I didn't know if that was going to be a bigger impact or what's that look like from a quantification standpoint?
Matts Pinard
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, absolutely. So the simple answer is cash same-store is 3.9% year-to-date. And if you adjust the timing, which I'll walk into in a second, that 3.9% would be 3.6%. So just kind of back up and reframe what occurred. A tenant last year in the third quarter was affiliated with the first brand's bankruptcy. We moved them to cash basis. There was kind of a disruption in communication. They're domiciled in Europe. They did not pay rent in the third quarter. They fully paid the third quarter rent and the current rent in the fourth quarter. So no payment in the third quarter, double payment in the fourth quarter. Again, on a calendar year basis, no impact, but on a quarter-to-quarter, Q3 artificially high due to the favorable comp, and it would reverse in the fourth quarter. I think really the story here, Dave, is our 3.9% year-to-date, if you account for this timing mismatch in 2025, 3.9 is 3.6%, which is basically the midpoint of our updated guidance. Does that clearly answer that question?
Dave Rodgers
Analyst, Raymond James
Yeah, I got that. Thank you. That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up, I think Nick asked a good capital allocation question earlier, but I'm curious if you change that math instead of just saying where do we put money, but where can we raise money? Have you guys kind of looked at the convert market or something to maybe lower initial borrowing costs, take advantage of the backup and cap rates? That convert market probably lets you issue equity in the mid, you know, low to mid 40s, which is above the 39 where you seem comfortable. So curious if maybe changing that equation of how do we raise money maybe more accretively today to take advantage of this backup and cap rates because this could help you drive growth even more. Is that something you're thinking about?
Matts Pinard
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, we evaluate everything. We're obviously very familiar with the convert market. The good news is, look, we have a revolver balance of $500 million. We have $70 million of unfunded equity. We retain $130 million of cash after dividends paid. So we don't really need additional capital right now. We would raise capital in the sense that we saw opportunities to deploy it, but where we are right now with where our balance sheet is, our liquidity, and our retained cash flow, we're in a very comfortable spot capital-wise.
Conference Operator
Operator
All right. Thanks, guys. Our next question is from Michael Griffin with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Michael Griffin
Analyst, Evercore ISI
Great, thanks. Maybe just starting on the acquisitions environment, I saw the cap rate guidance ticked up marginally. I imagine that was largely due to the acquisitions in the third quarter. But have you gotten a sense, if you've seen any repricing or retrading on deals, just given the volatility in interest rates recently, curious if buyer or seller expectations have moved, the bid ask spreads widened, and any additional color there would be helpful.
Mike Chase
Chief Investment Officer
Yeah. Hey, Michael. This is Mike Chase. Appreciate the question. I mean, it takes a little while for the volatility to push through the market, but there has been some indications of, you know, higher retrades and general repricing on deals that are coming to market. You know, the movement in cap rates will take a little bit to flush through the system, but I would say so far, you know, I would say it's probably somewhere in the 25 to 30 basis points based on kind of the retrades we've heard about. Some of those retrades are happening, and some of the sellers are saying no, and either waiting to see what happens with the capital markets and the kind of market volatility, or buyers are pushing through. So we have seen a few retrades here and there or been hearing about them.
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we expect it to stabilize, all else being equal, 25 to 35 base points higher than what it was this year. And the reason for the lag generally is 1031 buyers hold up pricing for a little bit. And that usually, as Mike was saying, flushes through within three to six months. And with respect to our guidance, Yeah, really, our guidance was moved and represents very little acquisition activity for the rest of the year just due to the uncertain capital markets environment.
Michael Griffin
Analyst, Evercore ISI
Thanks. I certainly appreciate the context there. And then, Bill, just going back to your comments and the prepared remarks about continued improvement in industrial fundamentals, as you talk to your big customers, your big tenants out there, I mean, what are they saying is the reason for this increased demand? Is there more certainty in their business? And, you know, do they just feel more confident about the macro outlook and the need to leave space? And then just also, if you could add anything, whether proposal activity, decision timelines have shrunk, you know, some commentary around that would be great, too.
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I mean, what we're hearing, and there's a couple of demand drivers, and this has been pretty consistent for the past six, 12 months, and even further, I guess, is our large, sophisticated tenants Global tenants have said they've wanted to diversify supply chains for years. And that dates back to port strikes and water levels in the Panama Canal. And for a number of reasons, diversification of supply chains is important for the business because the disruption is very costly to them. So that takes years and years to implement. And part of that is on-shoring manufacturing. It's bringing goods into the U.S. through other markets. and other ports, it's nearshoring. So that is a demand driver we're seeing. We're also seeing for a couple of years there, there was a lack of demand, I would say. A couple of years where the lowest level of demand we've seen in industrial in a decade. That created some pent up demand. And so those tenants are in the market and active. And so I think there is confidence in their businesses Obviously, oil prices are driving some issues with the economy and driving inflation, but overall, business activity remains really strong, and that's a big driver of demand. With respect to call it least gestation periods, those have shortened, certainly in markets where vacancy has dropped. I mean, one of our bigger markets is probably more unique to us, Greenville-Spartanburg. I mean, there's There's some buildings there that over 300,000 square feet, Class A facilities beginning at 25, there was double-digit vacancies. That's close to zero now. So that's a market where, you know, tenants are looking for space. They're acting really quickly to take it down because they're going to lose it. And that, when you have urgency in markets, when you have vacancy rates coming down, that shortens the lease gestation periods.
Conference Operator
Operator
Great.
Michael Griffin
Analyst, Evercore ISI
That's it for me.
Conference Operator
Operator
Thanks for the time.
Conference Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question is from Jason Belcher with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
Jason Belcher
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Hi, good morning. Matts, just thinking about the ratings upgrade from S&P in August, can you touch on how that might change the calculus on tapping the public unsecured market and maybe tell us where you think you could price a 10-year offering today?
Matts Pinard
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, absolutely. So this is our inaugural rating, actually, from S&P. Previously, we had Moody's and Fitch. Fitch at BBB stable. Moody's at BAA2 stable. And then we originated the S&P rating at BBB stable. And to your point, that was what we felt was a gating item to enter the public bond market. We were looking at the market earlier this year. You know, the capital market world changed. Capital deployment has slowed. So like I explained to Dave Rogers, don't really have a need for long-term debt capital at this point, again, with $500 million plus liquidity in the unfunded forward plus the retained earnings. But to directly answer your question, if we were to go to the public bond market, we'd likely look at the five-year tenor. If we looked at the five-year tenor, spreads are anywhere between 100 and 110 over. If we were to look at the 10-year, add an additional 20 basis points to that credit spread. So to kind of sum that up, the all-in coupon rate on a five-year public bond with our three ratings would be a little It'll blow 6% and closer to six and a quarter, six, four in the 10 year. But again, to reiterate, we're not actively looking at that market. We do not have a need for long-term debt capital right now.
Jason Belcher
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Understood. Thank you. And then just if you could give us an update on your tenant credit profile, if there are any tenant industries that are giving you more concern than others currently and maybe how that's trended over the past couple of quarters.
Matts Pinard
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, absolutely. I'm happy to report I really don't have a change to answer this question from 90 days ago. You know, tenants come on or come off, etc. But, you know, the theme really is it's not necessarily sector or business line. It's smaller businesses with higher leverage in low margin businesses. Think furnitures, for example. You know, we've incurred 12 basis points of credit loss through the third quarter. We started the year at a 50 basis point expectation. We lowered that last When we spoke in July, the outperformance of credit loss, which is a weird way to say it, but doing better than what we expected is one of the primary drivers of the increase of our same-store guidance this quarter.
Conference Operator
Operator
Great. Thanks a lot.
Conference Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Eric Borden with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Eric Borden
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
Great, thanks, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Not getting too far ahead of 27 Guidance, but could you just help us think about the building blocks for cash-shamed store outside of contractual rent bumps and the leasing spreads that you previously discussed? Is there anything meaningful from a free rent burn or the timing of cash commencements that we should keep in mind?
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
No, nothing from a free rent perspective. When you think about the building blocks, As you noted, it's contractual escalators, which are around 3%. We've got leasing spreads, which, as I noted, we're targeting around 15% for next year. Occupancy is a material driver. We had some occupancy loss this year. I think we've explained it numerous times, but just assume flat occupancy for next year. And then we bake in 50 basis points of credit loss. So you can back of the envelope that and you're going to be close to the mid single digits, circa 5%.
Eric Borden
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
Great. And then just on the fixed renewal options, how much of the portfolio still has those embedded and how is that exposure trended over time? As you negotiate leases today, are you generally able to move away from those fixed options or are tenants still asking for them?
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Those are not in any of our form leases. When we sign new leases, those aren't in there. When you acquire a lease, you acquire a building subject to a lease, you acquire the lease. Sometimes those are in there, and sometimes it takes a couple of renewals to get through those fixed renewal options. It's 2-3% of our portfolio of Maybe even 5%. But I think the impact on leasing spreads every year has been consistent the last three years. So we try not to back them out of our numbers. They're part of our numbers. The good thing is you're just kicking the can down the road with respect to the rollover rents for those. So we'll get at those market rents at some point. But it's really year over year, it's not really an impact to the same store.
Conference Operator
Operator
Thank you very much.
Conference Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Henry Newell with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Henry Newell
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
for Michael Carroll this morning. Thank you for taking my question. Just wanted to move back to the acquisition pipeline for another moment. It's a pretty big pipeline. Can you quantify really what portion of this pipeline is maybe in the later stages of negotiation? And would we expect acquisitions to increase in 4Q and moving into 2027?
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
So the pipeline, our pipeline may be different than others. The way we define it is deals that we are evaluating have underwritten. Maybe they're back on the market. Maybe we're talking about them internally. They're at various stages. So it's a pretty healthy number, but those are all the deals we're evaluating in the market. Some of those deals are The pricing is too rich for us, but we hang around the hoop, and if the pricing changes, then we'll be there. So for us, when you look at that pipeline, historically, our hit rate on that pipeline is really low. So when I think about acquisition guidance for the year, we updated that. We spent a lot of time on it. It's not really factoring in. and many additional acquisitions this year just due to the uncertain macro environment. Now with respect to next year, we'll evaluate the opportunity, we'll evaluate our capital and we'll buy what makes sense based on our free cash flow and our liquidity and that's the calculus we use for next year's acquisitions and frankly every year acquisitions. So it's hard to pinpoint a number at this point.
Henry Newell
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Great. I appreciate that context. And then just on the demand side of things, in Q3 and Q4 to date, are you guys continuing to see a lot of really data center adjacent demand? And are you seeing this emerge more or less in any specific markets?
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
I mean, the markets where we're seeing it is where the data centers are, right? I mean, you're seeing them in the Midwest and the Southeast and Texas and Frankly, we've had some really good success on leasing to data center-related tenants. And there's been a lot more leasing that, frankly, just hasn't made it into our portfolio because we have buildings in those markets that are occupied. When you look at 2025, last year, I think it accounted for almost 20% of our new leasing. And Year-to-date 2026, it's about 30% of our new leasing. The good thing is these are long-term leases. The weighted average lease term is between six and seven years. Really good credits. These leases are supporting the ongoing operations of data centers. But I do want to note what's important here is that these buildings were already built, were in these markets, and we're there to service other demand drivers within these markets. This is just another incremental demand driver in these markets. So a lot of these buildings were leased to either regional distributors, servicing the local economy, servicing a plant nearby. So our buildings in these markets were there for other reasons. This is just an incremental demand driver.
Conference Operator
Operator
Wonderful. Thank you and congrats on another strong report. Thank you. Our next question is from Jessica Zhang with Green Street.
Conference Operator
Operator
Please proceed with your question.
Jessica Zhang
Analyst, Green Street
Hi. Good morning. So in the last earnings call, you know, you mentioned El Paso as one of your weaker markets in terms of market rent growth. Can you just walk us through your thesis on the El Paso acquisition in this quarter?
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we like El Paso. We like the long-term fundamentals in that market. The El Paso acquisition had a little over five years of lease term. It's right near the bridge where a lot of the demand is El Paso, especially cross-border demand. So for us, El Paso is going to We think have some short-term struggles, but long-term, we really like the market. So that was the thesis behind that acquisition.
Jessica Zhang
Analyst, Green Street
Great. Thank you. And then maybe just additionally, I'm curious, what drove the increase in the G&A guidance this quarter?
Matts Pinard
Chief Financial Officer
Absolutely. So the midpoint of G&A increased $2 million with our updated guidance. It's not one item. It's a collection of items. It includes internal employee adjustments. We have some new hires. You know, every year we have normal course, annual service provider fee increases, true-up of the short-term incentive program. So it's not one thing. It's a collection of things. But added together, you know, we did increase our G&A guidance.
Jessica Zhang
Analyst, Green Street
Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Our next question.
Conference Operator
Operator
is from Sydney McGinty with JPMorgan Chase. Please proceed with your question.
Sydney McGinty
Analyst, JPMorgan Chase
Hi, guys. So in your opening remarks, you mentioned expecting rent growth in the 2% to 4% range next year. Can you just talk a little bit specifically on any green shoots you're seeing in any of your markets in particular that might be making you feel better about market rent growth?
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I mean, we operate in a lot of markets, so it's hard to go market by market, but because it's one of our top markets. I'll go back to the Greenville Spartanburg. I mean, that even market occupancy last year, I think, was in the vacancy rates were in the double digits. It's probably mid single digits now. And depending on the product type, it's lower, right? I think I mentioned over 300,000 Class A is close to 0%. So when you look at market rent growth, you also then have to further look at product type and are in those markets. You look at Columbus, great success in that market. A lot of big box leasing. It's a big box market. So you're getting really strong market rent growth for big box distribution assets in that market. If you've got a smaller box asset there, your market rent growth is probably not as strong. So we take a market-by-market look, layer on our view of our assets in those markets, and that's where we come up. with our market rent growth of 2% to 4%. This year, we had 0% to 2% market rent growth, and I think we're 1.6% year-to-date, so trending on the higher end of that range in our portfolio. And we'll see how 2027 shakes out, but we feel really good about the fundamentals and how our assets fit in those markets.
Sydney McGinty
Analyst, JPMorgan Chase
Okay, great. And then maybe as a follow-up to the acquisition talk earlier, Could this rate volatility in the macro environment in the acquisition market currently maybe create an opportunity to acquire assets from smaller developers who might be facing higher financing costs or watch list exposures now?
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Absolutely. I mean, this is part of our business, and we were able to find some great opportunities in Q3. You turn the clock back. Thank you. We'll look at them and hopefully we'll be able to take advantage of them.
Conference Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time.
Conference Operator
Operator
I would like to turn the floor back over to Bill Crooker for closing comments.
Bill Crooker
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, just thanks everybody for joining the call and thank you for the questions and we look forward to seeing you soon at the upcoming conferences.
Conference Operator
Operator
You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.