TFIN Triumph Financial, Inc.

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Triumph Financial, Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Luke [LastName]
Head of Investor Relations
Good morning. It's 930 in Dallas and we're ready to get started. Thanks for joining us this morning and for your interest in our third quarter results. We're glad you're here. Aaron's shareholder letter published last evening outlines a quarter of strong operating progress. Transportation revenue grew materially, margins expanded in factoring and payments, and load pay continued to gain scale. The letter also discusses the freight environment, our evolving North Star metrics, and the work underway to translate the investments we have made into greater operating leverage and earnings. That letter and our quarterly results will form the basis of today's discussion. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conversation may include forward-looking statements. Those statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual and anticipated results to differ. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly revise any forward-looking statement. For details, please refer to the safe harbor statement in our shareholder letter published last evening. All comments made during today's call are subject to that safe harbor statement. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Aaron for a welcome and to kick off our Q&A. Aaron?
Aaron [LastName]
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Luke. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Last evening, we released our shareholder letter. And by way of introduction, let me reiterate its opening message because I've learned that if you have something important to say, you should probably say it multiple times. What we wrote is, we told investors we would invest through the freight cycle and we did exactly that. Not everyone agreed with the strategy, but we were true to our word. Investors should now expect that same level of commitment as we take the steps necessary to translate that potential we built into earnings performance consistent with our historical results and beyond. and doing so will demonstrate the returns on the investments we have made. So our priorities have evolved but our commitment to delivering on what we say we will do has not. And with that, I'll turn the call over for questions.
Operator
Conference Moderator
Thank you. We will now move to our question and answer session. If you have joined via the webinar, please use the raise hand icon, which can be found at the bottom of your webinar application. When you are called on, please unmute your line and ask your question. As a reminder, we ask those with questions to limit them to two initially and then time permitting, please rejoin the queue and we will return to you for additional questions. We will now pause a moment to assemble the queue. Our first question is from Joe Yakunis from Raymond James. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Joe Yakunis
Analyst, Raymond James
Good morning. Morning, Joe. Well, thank you for taking my questions. I'm going to start off. So you've now formally established a sub 400 million expense target for 2027 that you called out requires at least 20 million of efficiencies from the current run rate. Are you able to give some more color on where those savings will come from? You know, how much is already identified versus still to be executed and whether we should expect those efficiencies to materialize kind of evenly throughout the year? Or do you think there'll be more back half weighted?
Aaron [LastName]
Chief Executive Officer
Sure. Well, the first thing I would say is if you've known us a long time, Joe, if we tell you that there's 20 million of efficiencies to go get, you should assume that we have a pretty good idea of what we're going to do. I don't know that this is the appropriate venue to give you specifics on where those efficiencies are. What I would say is you should expect those efficiencies very much sooner than the back half of next year.
Joe Yakunis
Analyst, Raymond James
Okay, that's helpful. And then, you know, last quarter you discussed roughly $7 million of annual pre-tax income sensitivity for every, you know, $100 change in average invoice price. And you've actually been calling out the $7 million for a few years now. So in this quarter's shareholder letter, you noted that, you know, the $100 swing should generate $12 million in revenue and $8.5 million of pre-tax income. So I'm going to try to sneak in a two-parter here. One, what caused the increase from $7 to $8.5 million in pre-tax income? And two, why isn't that contribution margin higher for the change in invoice price? I just assumed any change would fall right to the bottom line.
Brad [LastName]
Chief Financial Officer
Two things, Joe, to your question. The reason that it is more sensitive to changes in invoice prices than it was before is because we've got more of it on our balance sheet. We're starting from a higher base. So from a percentage basis, it hasn't moved a lot, but we are, when we re-ran those numbers, and we've got a higher base of revenue to work with. The reason that that $12 million goes to eight and a half comes down to funding costs. So if you look at our factoring business, that revenue number, we haven't really talked about that in this perspective a whole lot, but about a quarter roughly of our factoring revenue is given back to incremental funding costs. So that's the difference between the 12 and the eight and a half.
Joe Yakunis
Analyst, Raymond James
Okay, perfect. That's helpful. Thank you much, and I'll hop back in the queue.
Operator
Conference Moderator
Thank you. Our next question is from Gary Tenner from DA Davidson. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Gary Tenner
Analyst, D.A. Davidson
Thanks. Good morning. On that funding comment and question, another really good quarter in the mortgage warehouse deposits, and you've really used those to materially reduce the brokered funds over the last several quarters. As those get down to zero, how do you think about Thank you. Thank you.
Brad [LastName]
Chief Financial Officer
Our warehouse business, if you just look over the last year, that deposit business has grown materially. Just looking at the changes in the balance sheet over the last year, as you noted, yes, we've driven our wholesale funding down to near zero. That was about a billion dollars of funding a year ago. And we've taken our cash balances up about a billion as well. I wouldn't expect a ton of incremental growth from here in that mortgage warehouse deposit business. What we are not going to do is... Thank you. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Moderator
Thank you. Our next question is from Timothy Switzer from KBW. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Timothy Switzer
Analyst, KBW
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Morning. First one I have is, could you update us, Aaron, on the progress of monetizing T-Pay? The broker revenue per invoice rose about, I think, 3%. That's pretty good progress, but wondering how that metric should track over the next year or two and With everything going on in the industry right now, have you seen any new challenges to pricing?
Todd [LastName]
Head of Payments
Yeah, I'll take that one. So yes, we've seen nice growth in revenue per invoice. A lot of that came as a result of the repricing effort. That repricing effort is largely complete at this point, and so I think you'll see much slower growth in revenue per invoice going forward from here. At this point, the shift is really in driving more volume and more cross-selling. The cross-selling will drive additional growth in the revenue per invoice, but it'll be slower than what we've seen in the last year.
Aaron [LastName]
Chief Executive Officer
And Timothy, if I can Todd's Leadership in Payments The customer in that business is a broker. And a broker's job is really hard, but it's also really simple. It's how do I make margin between what my customer's paying me and where I hire the truck? That's number one. How do I make sure I hire a truck that's defensible, especially in a post-Montgomery world? How do I avoid liability? And number three, how do I reduce my back office administration once I've done the first two things right? The power of what we've built is audit, payments, and intelligence all speak to those three questions. As we're engaging with the market, 69 of the top 100, 560 brokers, there isn't anyone else out there who can go to a broker and say, in all three dimensions of how you achieve your goals, we can help. and so it's not just about where we price individual components or repricing, it's about total value contribution to the customer and I'm very, very excited about where we're going in that regard.
Timothy Switzer
Analyst, KBW
Great, yeah, very helpful. Aaron, your letter made it very clear that a tight truck market is here to stay but if I read between the lines, do you also expect demand and volume in truckload to pick up or is it more a comment on The lack of driver availability, if that occurred.
Aaron [LastName]
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, so we have no firm view in demand. Next year could be extraordinary. Next year could be a full-blown recession. We don't know. I can point you to things that would suggest there's green shoots, and I can point you to other things that say it's completely uneven. So let's just talk about what we do know. Thank you for joining us. So the question is, what changes a supply-driven market? There's only two things that can happen. Number one, you have radical demand destruction, which would mean we go into a recession next year. I don't think that will happen, but like I said, we don't know. But then the second thing would be new entrants come into the market. That's what we saw in late 2021 and early 2022. Thank you so much for joining us. It's kind of hard for new capacity to come into a market like that. So we don't know about demand, but we are pretty confident that supply constraints will continue as a result of regulation and litigation for the foreseeable future.
Timothy Switzer
Analyst, KBW
Yeah, that makes sense. And if I could have one more, I appreciate all the color on the challenges in the intelligence segment and the difficulty becoming integrated to customers. Could you provide some more details on if that has been more of like a technical issue or just like the solution? Was it properly aligned with customer workflows? And, you know, what are you guys doing to fix that?
Aaron [LastName]
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, so let me start off, then I'll let Ben finish with how we fix it because I need to own the problem. We have not come out of the gates in intelligence nearly as quickly as we anticipated. And I could point you to a lot of things, not the least of which is many of the customers of the intelligence business we acquired in this new market are struggling to make it. And so you've got customer attrition, but also it's on us about some of the things we could have done better. So I can sit here and own that, right? Don't shy away from it. But I can tell you, it's not, as I think about where intelligence goes, I am absolutely convinced, we as a team are absolutely convinced that the industrial logic of us using the largest payments data set available in the world for U.S. trucking to deliver value back to our customers is unquestioned. We didn't choose to join the wrong race. We just came out of the blocks not as fast as we wanted. I've got a lot of confidence in the things we're now doing. One of the things you should read through in the letter, before I turn this over to Ben, is Thank you so much for joining us.
Ben [LastName]
Head of Intelligence
Absolutely. On our side, like we said, on the turn side, we've identified it. We're working really closely with our clients. We're truly understanding where the product needs to go now. On our side, we acknowledge the fact that when we initially went down this path, we looked at it through the lens of data products. Where we're going now is a data platform which is truly embedded into workflows and we truly believe that this is the process where our valuable data becomes a form and function of where the market participants really want to use it. Yes, we will continue building on data products, but we also are going to offer a platform that allows others to build on top of our verified transaction data. And so we confidently believe that the thesis is correct and we're moving in the right direction.
Timothy Switzer
Analyst, KBW
Awesome. Yeah, thanks for taking all my questions.
Operator
Conference Moderator
Thank you. Our next question is from Matthew Olney from Stevens. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Matthew Olney
Analyst, Stevens
Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. And Aaron, I appreciate you providing that letter last night with the thoughts. Always a great read. Within payments, the letter highlighted just the focus remains on cross-selling the existing clients. I think you already kind of touched on this briefly. Can you also talk about the volume growth from here? I think the number of invoices process has been pacing at that 7% level year over year over the last few quarters. Just curious if you think that kind of mid to high single-digit growth is reasonable. I guess what's kind of embedding that question is just the pace of new wins in that business.
Todd [LastName]
Head of Payments
Sure, Matt. Thanks for the question. I'll take it. So if you look at the broker universe, there are still an awful lot of brokers out there that we don't serve. So there's a lot of opportunity to add additional volume. The 7% growth figure that you referenced, high single digits, seems very attainable to me going forward. As you reflect on how we've had to focus on repricing over the course of last year, of course, that involved using our salespeople to help with that effort. and now that that's in the rear view, we can refocus on selling a core business and cross selling from here. So yes, I think high single digit growth is very attainable.
Matthew Olney
Analyst, Stevens
Okay, thanks for clarifying that. And I guess kind of similar topic on the payment side. That invoice pricing has always been lower than on the factoring side. And as I understand, that's from just shorter routes on the payments, not just the long haul routes. Correct me if I'm wrong on that. But outside of this, should we assume the general trend of invoice pricing within payments will be similar to factoring? Or is there any other nuances we should consider within that?
Todd [LastName]
Head of Payments
No, I think that's exactly right. The trend will be very similar to what you see in factoring. It'll just be at a different level.
Matthew Olney
Analyst, Stevens
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Conference Moderator
Thank you. Our next question is from Eric Beddell from Bloomberg Intelligence. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Eric Beddell
Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question.
Aaron [LastName]
Chief Executive Officer
Morning.
Eric Beddell
Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
I was just wondering if you could tell us a bit more on the load pay update you identified the 1.1% of payment volumes going through the Triumph network and I'm curious if you have a target percent in mind that you'd like to capture up from that 1.1% Thanks for the question thanks for noticing the new metric in there
David [LastName]
Head of Load Pay
I don't think we have a ceiling of where that could end up getting to. It's a natural progression where we're starting at that 1% and moving closer and closer to 70. We don't think we're going to ever get to 100% share, but we don't think it's unreasonable to jump from 1% to 2% to 5% to 10% over the course of the next couple of years.
Aaron [LastName]
Chief Executive Officer
Eric, one of the things we put in this letter, it was an interesting thing for me to read as our team prepared it. I hope you captured that we paid 2,500 different financial institutions in the last quarter. The number of institutions where truckers bank has got to be way higher than that. The reason I can say that is because many of the payments we make go to factoring companies who then remit funds to who the trucker banks with. That would be masked from us. So here's how we think about it and with what David and the business we're building. If you have a marketplace that is that fragmented of where truckers bank, we know this. They did not choose their financial institution because that financial institution held itself out as passionate about trucking. I think we're a universe of one of the only bank that feels as passionately about trucking as we do. So they chose their bank for all the reasons people choose banks. So as we now think about going and winning market share, we have to convince them that whatever made them like the bank they are currently using, Loadpay can match many of those features and give them many more features and savings and rewards and opportunities that help them run their business better. and that we think is compelling. The second thing that's compelling, and if we were just doing it that way, that would be a marketing exercise and you could probably win, but understand no one in the world pays as many truckers as Triumph. And so if we're pushing out $70 billion a year, We can then go to the end user and go, if you have a load pay account, you will get that money faster and cheaper. And we are offering you a product that's tailored for your business. We think that is a right to win because we're competing against incumbents who don't wake up every day and think about trucking. So we can't predict how much we'll get, how soon we'll get there. But it's the value chain of being on both sides of the transaction, making the payment and owning the bank account on the receiving end and then building a product that is tailor-made for truckers. That's why we're excited about investing in load pay.
Eric Beddell
Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Got it. Thank you very much. And just a quick follow-up on this as well. Where are you seeing more increase in load pay use? Is it on the larger account size or some of the smaller account ads that you talked about in the last few quarters?
David [LastName]
Head of Load Pay
Absolutely. And so we've really been focused on the small fleet. And so for us, it's about seven power units or lower. And so we've seen higher adoption, higher utilization of the tools within that. What we've actually seen, though, in the third quarter is that started to ramp up north of seven power units, up through 20 power units. And we're now hearing back from carriers of all the utilization that they're able to do. Some of the things that we unlocked in the first half of this year were larger fleets being able to issue out Expense cards to their drivers. And so when Aaron says we're getting adoption away from the traditional operating make that they may have been, it's because some of these very bespoke or tailored solutions that are being built that are industry specific are making even larger fleets move into load pack.
Eric Beddell
Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
And then just one last quick one, if I can. Should we expect a similar growth rate in the accounts on both the total and active carrier over the next few quarters?
David [LastName]
Head of Load Pay
You know, we think we're running at the same pace for the next couple quarters. And what it looks like, it'll be, we'll exit this year right around 14,000 accounts. And as we look forward into next year, we'll probably be on a very similar run rate to the remainder of 2027. Great, thank you.
Operator
Conference Moderator
Thank you. As a gentle reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please use the raise hand button at the bottom of your Zoom application. Our next question comes from Joe Yankunis from Raymond James. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Joe Yakunis
Analyst, Raymond James
Hey, thanks for letting me hop back in here. Just have a couple more. So in the shareholder letter, you know that you added 706 new factoring customers year to date, you know, despite the broader carrier population contracting. So without spilling the secret sauce, how are you accomplishing this? And do you believe that the current pace of customer additions will be sustainable throughout 27?
Kim [LastName]
Head of Factoring
Yeah, I'll take that, Joe. I do. I mean, I think that when I look at our payments network and the amount of carriers that they pay, and we're paying about 8,000 carriers in the factoring business, I think we have a large runway. And to your point, without giving away the secret sauce, the one thing we do is we immediately cover liquidity on the factoring side for the carrier. But to pair what David was saying is we've given them a tool to manage their business and their money in one place. And so I feel like that's where the value chain comes in for the carrier.
Aaron [LastName]
Chief Executive Officer
and Joe Kim. Kim is too kind because what she should have said is she needed her CEO to get out of the way, right? Like I owned it in the letter. Our caution as we were building the Open Loop Payments Network, we pulled back on factory and growth and she and that team have been troopers despite them, you know, their misguided CEO at certain times. And so now I'm like, I'm out of their way and go build because we learn things, right? We You have a thesis, you execute on the thesis, and then hopefully you're humble enough to learn when your thesis was wrong, admit when you're wrong, and course correct. And the last thing I would say on that, in addition to pursuing factoring, Thank you so much for joining us. Number two, the fact that we paid 134,000 carriers last quarter, that's really helpful. And number three, when you have businesses like CH Robinson and RXO and more to come that build factoring as a service on top of our platform, that's all very helpful. So our distribution to the marketplace of 90... Last quarter, we paid 93,000 factored carriers. Almost 70% of all carrier payments went to a factoring company. The distribution we have, the reputation we have, the product we have, and the partners we have, and the excellence with which Kim and her team service our customers, that's the value proposition.
Joe Yakunis
Analyst, Raymond James
Okay, that was great. I was also kind of hoping to talk about This 2027 framework of low double-digit transportation revenue, can you help us unpack the segment-level growth assumptions embedded in that framework? And specifically, how much growth are you contemplating from factoring versus payments and intelligence? And within factoring, how much is driven by continued market share gains versus higher average invoice prices?
Aaron [LastName]
Chief Executive Officer
Let me take that top down and then Brad can clean up in the segments because there's a purpose that that was in there. I mean, you've seen our letters. We're not in the business of giving forward guidance. That's not what we do except as it relates to expenses. So what we were trying to do with that very simple metric is say if you assume normal credit costs, which that's what we assume. This quarter didn't love. There were some episodic things, but like normal credit costs. and expense discipline that I think we've been very transparent about. And that won't stop going forward, which is a pivot from what we've done historically. And then if you just assume 10% transportation growth, I don't think that's the shot we're going to call for next year. We haven't updated the North Star metrics, but we just did it for purposes of this exercise. And I don't think we're ready to go into each individual segment. Joe, let me tie it to a broader narrative on this 2027 earnings bridge. Every analyst who's asked us a question on this call, save one, is a bank analyst. While we are very different than almost 300 other publicly traded banks, we are a bank. And if we look at the last four years, our investors have I mean, some have have not liked it. Some have given us permission. I mean, but as a company, we said we were going to invest and we had no idea the freight cycle we were about to go into. Right. And it was the worst of times to be investing. But once we made the call and we believed in the long term value, we stuck to the call. Thank you for joining us. So if you think about that 2027 earnings bridge, if you take the median of all publicly traded banks, and many of them are stabilized business models, 1.2% ROA is rough median right now, and I'm not telling you anything you don't know. So I think our earnings bridge in 2027, if you assume invoices remain flat, gets somewhere between 1% and 1.2%. That's what we already wrote in the letter, so I might as well say it out loud here. The point I want everyone to understand is if you get there at a time when load pay and intelligence are still a drag on earnings, and you believe that load pay and intelligence have a future where they don't just break even, but they actually are meaningful contributors. And on top of that, you believe there is a lot of opportunity to grow factoring, which is running at over 5% pre-tax ROA right now. Then you start to see the earnings power of what we've built is very different than our quote unquote peer group of banks. So like I said a lot, but that's the reason it's in there. That's what's driving our thinking on Operating Efficiency and Profitability. And it will be in next quarter's letter where we get a little more specific on giving you any updated targets for 2027. But we didn't assume that invoices were going to continue to go up because we can't make that prediction. What we can tell you is October quarter to date, invoices have continued to rise and new clients have continued to join. And so that's obviously meaningful for factoring. So I hope I answered your question, but I hope I also did it in a way that's helpful for people to understand the context behind it.
Joe Yakunis
Analyst, Raymond James
No, I appreciate that. That was a thoughtful response. And then the last kind of question I had was on the incentive comp. You know, you had talked about potentially there being six million that was going to be spread across the back half of the year. And then in the same vein, you talked about how in this quarter you outperformed on a lot of the several operating metrics which determine this. I guess, how much of that should we expect to be accrued in the fourth quarter?
Aaron [LastName]
Chief Executive Officer
We don't, so, you know, an interesting thing, we try to be extremely transparent, right? We've been wrong many times in, I think this is our 47th, my 47th earning call, which is hard to believe. We always try to be transparent. We're wrong often, but if we tell you something, that's what we believe at the time. And this is where I suppose transparency came back to bite us because we tried to give you that guidance that we were thinking because I didn't want anyone to be surprised. But in the real world, you have to react to what's happening. And frankly, delivering 70 basis points of ROA this quarter and all the things with the credit noise, it did not seem appropriate to take that additional bonus expense in the quarter, even though many things are going well. And so it's our job, the permanent tension that exists between capital and labor, Thank you so much for joining us. So we gave you $100 million of guidance for Q4. That's as specific as we're going to get as it relates to what we do compensation-wise for that quarter.
Joe Yakunis
Analyst, Raymond James
Understood. I appreciate you taking all my questions.
Operator
Conference Moderator
Thank you. Our next question is from Eric Bedell from Bloomberg Intelligence. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Eric Beddell
Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Hi, thanks. Just a few follow-ups. Number one, I'm curious how you're thinking about freight market where we might see more broker consolidations. Has anything changed in your approach to how you serve your clients?
Todd [LastName]
Head of Payments
No, nothing has changed in the approach that we take to serve our clients. As we've reported, a lot of our business comes from the largest freight brokers. That tends to be the sweet spot for us. And so more broker consolidation is exactly what we expect and exactly where we aim to play.
Eric Beddell
Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
And then if I could just get one more quick one on the load-based side. Was the tick down in the revenue per account just primarily due to that late ads in the quarter that you talked about? And also, do you still have the same target for annualized revenue per account?
David [LastName]
Head of Load Pay
So what we see there, and we highlighted it in a footnote underneath that chart, right, where what you're looking at is a month-over-month comparison for that one. But if we actually dive into the third quarter, what we saw was we saw continued growth on a month-over-month basis. And so we didn't have a down quarter. We just had that tough comparable with the number of accounts being open, the number of active accounts on a June to September. And so that's It was just a little bit of noise, a touch of seasonality and the account issue. So we still have high levels of confidence in our target rate. And if we look at the accounts that have been open over 120 days, we're still at north of $1,200 in revenue on an annualized basis per account. And so we feel very confident as we move forward. Great.
Eric Beddell
Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Thanks so much.
Operator
Conference Moderator
Thank you. There are no more questions at this time. I'd now like to turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.
Aaron [LastName]
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you everyone for joining us. We look forward to seeing you next quarter. Have a great day.