TRMD TORM plc

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$40.26

TORM plc Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

AI Conference Call Analysis

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Janine
Conference Operator
Thank you for standing by. My name is Janine and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to TORM 3rd Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question, please press star 1 and to withdraw your question, please press star 1 again. I would now like to turn the call over to Jacob Meldgaard, the Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.
Jacob Meldgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you and welcome to everyone joining us here today. As we addressed last time, we believe the one-form platform is fundamental to understanding how we create value. So by integrating our commercial, technical and operational capabilities, We can make decisions quickly and optimize the value of each vessel throughout its lifecycle. For us, this is not simply about replacing vessels at a certain age. Through disciplined maintenance, we preserve the quality and commercial flexibility of our fleet, giving us the option to retain well-performing vessels for longer when that creates more value. At the same time, We actively buy and sell vessels and invest in the fleet when we see attractive opportunities. The objective is to maximize the earnings and value of each vessel throughout the cycle. This approach is supported by our commercial performance. From 2023 through 2025, our MR fleet generated more than USD 200 million of additional CC earnings compared with the peer average. We have continued to outperform during 2026. Finally, strong operating performance generates cash, which allows us to balance attractive shareholder distributions with disciplined investments in the fleet. That combination of operational performance, active fleet management and disciplined capital allocation is at the core of the One Torn model. Turning to slide four. You can see how that approach has translated into both fleet investment and shareholder returns. Since the end of 2022, we have expanded the fleet from 78 to 95 vessels while also building a significant pipeline of future deliveries. Importantly, while some of our peers have taken a different approach, we have deliberately maintained more vessels on the water over the past year. In a strong freight market, This has allowed us to capture more of the economic value from our existing fleet rather than accelerating disposals simply because of age. And we have done this while returning substantial cash to shareholders. Since 2023, Tornite distributed US$17.45 per share in dividends. We've also used the equity market selectively when it made sense, including issuing shares as part of the consideration for Vessel Acquisitions. In total, approximately 20 million shares have been issued over the period, helping us capture attractive fleet investment opportunities. So our approach is not to choose between distributions and investment. It is about allocating capital dynamically, maximizing the value of the existing fleet, returning cash to shareholders, and investing when we see opportunities to strengthen future earnings capacity. And that brings us naturally to the third quarter, where we continued to actually manage both the existing feed and our future delivery pipeline. Kindly turn to slide five. During the third quarter, we generated CCE earnings of US dollar 353 million, compared with US dollar 236 million in the third quarter of last year. EBITDA was US dollar 274 million, Compatible US dollar 152 million while net profit reached US dollar 199 million compared with US dollar 78 million a year ago. These results came after an exceptional second quarter and demonstrated that earnings remained at very strong levels throughout the third quarter. We also continued to actually manage the existing fleet. During the quarter, we sold the 2007 built LR1 and the 2008 built MR TORM Laura. Following these divestments, our fleet comprises 95 vessels underwater. At the same time, we continue to advance our fleet renewal and growth program. Following the acquisition of six MR resale vessels during the second quarter and our previously announced order for six MR new buildings, we exercised options for an additional two MR new buildings during the third quarter. After end quarter, we agreed to invest in eight LR2 new buildings through a 50-50 joint venture and secured options for an additional two MR new buildings. Taken together, these investments give us a significant pipeline of future fleet deliveries through 2030, supporting both the ongoing renewal of the fleet and our future earnings capacity. So when we look at the quarter, there are really two messages. The existing TORM platform continues to generate very strong earnings and cash flow. And second, we continue to actually manage and invest in the fleet with a focus on future earnings and long-term shareholder value. Let me now turn to the market environment supporting those earnings. And here, please turn to slide number seven. The product-taker market remains exceptionally Thank you very much. In the crude tanker market, where rates have reached exceptionally high levels, lifting sentiment and earnings across the broader tanker sector. This is reflected in our commercial performance, where our fourth quarter bookings secured to date average US$78,000 per day across vessel classes, demonstrating our ability to capture value in a rapidly strengthening market. At the same time, The historical ranges on this slide also remind us that shipping remains a highly cyclical and volatile industry. Market conditions can change quickly, which makes commercial flexibility increasingly important. Turning to slide 8, if we step back from product angles and look at the broader oil market, the key element here is that Persian Gulf crude exports are recovering towards pre-conflict levels. That matters because crude flows are the starting point of the entire value chain. While it may take longer for the Middle East clean product flows to return to pre-war levels, improved feedstock availability globally enables refineries in other regions to increase utilization and ultimately export more clean products. In that sense, product exports could represent the next leg of the recovery. And importantly, These additional volumes would enter a product tanker market that is already tight and generating attractive earnings. At the same time, operational inefficiencies in the Persian Gulf continue to constrain effective vessel availability. So we potentially have additional cargo demand entering a market where effective vessel supply is already constrained. And that brings us directly to the next slide, to slide nine. Here we see the other side of the equation, effective business supply. One point we have highlighted repeatedly is that headline fleet growth figures overstate the actual supply available to the clean product tanker market. This slide is a good illustration of that dynamic. While the nominal product tanker fleet has grown by around 7% year to date, the fleet actively trading clean products has actually contracted The reason is straightforward. A growing number of LR2s have migrated into dirty trades, effectively removing capacity from the CPP market. In fact, despite significant new building deliveries this year, there are fewer LR2s trading clean products today than at the start of the year. So the important metric is not simply how many vessels are being delivered, it is how much effective capacity is actually available to the clean market. Turning to slide 10, the longer-term supply picture is also more nuanced than the headline order book suggests. New building deliveries need to be considered against the significant amount of existing capacity that will require replacement over time, as well as vessels that are currently unavailable to mainstream trades. This is particularly visible in the combined LO2 and Afromax segment, where more than a quarter of the fleet is currently sanctioned and The key takeaway here is that fleet replacement remains a powerful balancing mechanism. When combined with the reduced availability of sanctioned vessels, effective fleet growth appears considerably lower than the headline order book could indicate. Turning to slide 11, the final point is what the market could look like as the current disruption eventually normalizes. As inventories have been drawn down, replenishment of strategic and commercial stocks could become a meaningful source of incremental demand. We estimate that inventory rebuilding alone could increase global oil trade volumes by roughly 1 to 2% over the next 12 months. Importantly, product anchor fundamentals were already strong before the disruption. Effectively, growth remains constrained, while demand continues to be supported We therefore do not view the reopening of this trade as the end of the story. Rather, it marks the beginning of a new adjustment phase that can continue to support tanker demand. To conclude, while the current geopolitical environment continues to support trade markets, our constructive view does not rely on disruption. Whenever tensions in the Middle East begin to ease, We believe the underlying fundamentals will remain supportive, with resilient trade activity, inventory rebuilding and constrained effective tonnage supply. This includes EU sanctions against Russia, which we believe will continue to support longer trading distances and tonnage miles for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the current environment highlights the importance of adaptability, a strong balance sheet and operational execution. These are core strengths of TORM and position us well to capture opportunities, navigate volatility and create value across market cycles. With that, I'll hand it over to Kim, who will take us through thoughts.
Kim Balle
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Jacob. Turning to slide 13, the third quarter delivered another very strong financial performance with earnings significantly ahead of the same period last year. TGE earnings reached USD 353 million, up from USD 236 million in Q3 2025. This was translated into EVDA of USD 274 million and net profit of USD 199 million, compared with USD 152 million and USD 78 million, respectively, a year ago. On a feed-wide basis, we achieved an average TGE rate of approximately USD 40,100 per day, Thank you very much. Operating expenses were US$7,894 per day, mainly driven by high accrual change expenses and consumable costs. Overall, Q3 represents another quarter of strong earnings and cash generation, leaving TORM in a strong financial position. And with that, let us turn to the development in RTG earnings and EBITDA. Turning to slide 14, this chart puts the third quarter performance into perspective over the past five quarters. While earnings moderated from the exceptionally strong second quarter EBDA of USD 274 million remained materially above the same quarter last year, demonstrating continued earnings strength of the OneTone platform. That strong earnings generation continues to translate into significant shareholder returns, which brings us to slide 15. Net profit for the third quarter was USD 199 million, compared with USD 78 million in the same quarter last year. Basic earnings per share increased to USD 1.94 from USD 0.79 a year ago. Based on these results, the Board has approved an interim dividend of USD 1.35 per share, more than double the USD 0.62 per share distributed for the same quarter last year. This represents a total cash distribution to shareholders of USD 138 million. In determining the distribution, the Board has taken a prudent approach to capital allocation while maintaining a payout ratio of 78%. This reflects the significant new building pipeline ahead of us and our objective of preserving financial capacity to fund these investments, while maintaining a strong balance sheet and healthy liquidity. This allows us to invest from a position of financial strength, which brings me to our balance sheet on slide 16. Net interest bearing debt. was approximately USD 697 million, while our net loan-to-value ratio stood at 25.9% at the end of the quarter. Importantly, our loan-to-value calculation already reflects the new building investments we have committed to, both directly and in a joint venture setup. Once an investment is agreed, we include both the committed CAPEX and the corresponding value on the vessel in the calculation. At the end of the quarter, this includes approximately US$650 million of committed new building CAPEX, bringing total loans and committed commitments to approximately US$1.3 billion. This is measured against total vessel values of approximately US$5 billion, which similarly include the value of the vessels under construction. So the 25.9% loans for value already incorporates our committed new building program and demonstrates that we continue to have significant asset bagging and financial flexibility. Finally, as shown on the right hand side, our debt maturity profile remains well spread over the coming years, including the US dollar 200 million bond maturing in 2029. These turn to slide 17 for our financial outlook. Where strong freight, environment and our high level of coverage provides good visibility for the remainder of the year. Our freight coverage for the fourth quarter provides further evidence of the exceptional market strength. For LR2s, we have covered 656 spot days at approximately US$185,000 per day, contributing to average LR2 coverage for approximately US$112,000 per day. Overall coverage is very strong for LR2s at approximately US$106,000 per day and MRs at approximately US$60,000 per day. Importantly, this shows that the strength extends across our feed and is not solely an illiterate story. Based on this strong coverage and our expectations for the continued market strength throughout the remainder of the fourth quarter, we are raising the low end of our full-year TD guidance by 50 million USD. We now expect full-year TD of USD 1.75 to 1.9 billion compared with USD 1.7 to 1.9 billion following our guidance upgrade in October. We're also raising the lower end of our EBITDA guidance by 50 million US dollars with full year EBITDA now expected at US dollar 1.35 to 1.5 billion compared with US dollar 1.3 to 1.5 billion previously. And with that, I will hand it back to the operator for questions.
Janine
Conference Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your touch-down phone and you will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. If you wish to withdraw, please press star one again. If you're using a speakerphone, we kindly ask you to lift the handset before pressing any key. One moment please while we gather questions. Our first question comes from the line of John Chappell from Evercore. Sir, please go ahead.
John Chappell
Analyst, Evercore
Thank you. Good afternoon.
Kim Balle
Chief Financial Officer
Good morning, John.
John Chappell
Analyst, Evercore
Jacob, you've been pretty consistent with the one-term strategy for several years now. The new building plans that you've announced kind of subsequent to the quarter end seems to be a bit more aggressive, let's just say, not disparaging it, just saying it seems to be a little bit more aggressive than in the recent past. Is this a function of kind of the incredible times we're in right now and the view from the management team and the board that investing in new tonnage is the way to recycle the tremendous amount of cash that you're bringing in today? And are there any other potential accelerations, so to speak, of the TORM strategy that we could look forward to as the cash flow remains robust?
Jacob Meldgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Good question. So, actually, the fleet strategy and the strategy about the continued return of capital to shareholders remains the same. What we have seen is that in our fleet, we have a position that is across the LR2, LR1, and MR segments, and that when we look at the fleet profile of our LR2s, over the next couple of years we have approximately 50 percent of the fleet that will turn 20 years of age and we are simply just of the opinion that the planning process of that sort of keeping maintaining at least the same position in the market will require us to make substantial investments into the deep renewal and we are starting that now rather than waiting So this is just really fleet maintenance and on the same token we have not changed anything about our distribution to shelves.
John Chappell
Analyst, Evercore
Okay. Just as a quick follow-up, as you invest in these new builds, is there an ARB opportunity for you to continue to dispose of some of the older tonnage? I understand right now they're earning Tremendous returns and there's something to be said for making incredibly high rates on older tonnage that's been fully written down and depreciated but also could be a source of funds for this new build program especially as your ships approach 15 or 20 years so how do you kind of consider those puts and takes?
Jacob Meldgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, absolutely. I think you've seen that we have divested a couple of vessels that is older in our fleet. If the rationale for doing it would be the same as we saw in those, i.e. that the value that we would be getting up front exceeds on a conservative basis what we expect to be earning, we could do more of that but it's not a necessary tool in order to establish any type of funding as Kim also alluded to our loan to value standing including all capital is committed at you know mid-20s that can obviously change depend on on the values of the assets but i don't see that vessel sales is a necessary action to support the fleet renewal program that we have ongoing. But we will do it opportunistically when it's the right thing.
John Chappell
Analyst, Evercore
Okay. Thank you, Jacob.
Jacob Meldgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Janine
Conference Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brod Markital from Clarkson Securities. Please go ahead.
Frode Mørkedal
Analyst, Clarkson Securities
Yeah. Thank you. Hi, guys.
Jacob Meldgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Hi, Brod.
Frode Mørkedal
Analyst, Clarkson Securities
I think, yeah, let's start on the market. It was this Tradewinds article today where you discussed the shuttle and STS operation around Hormuz, which was interesting, I think. Talk about that. I mean, I feel like the crude shuttle runs are fairly well understood. How is it for clean products right now? How big is it? What type of inefficiency do you see?
Jacob Meldgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thanks. When we go specific on the CPP exiting the Persian Gulf, then Pre-war, it was standing, I thought, also around 2.5 million barrels of clean product on a daily basis that were transiting. Then we saw just pretty much the same pattern as on crude, that it went to very close to measurable volumes right at the beginning, and that it has come up from summer and over to now to around 1 million. The latest search that we have experienced on the crude side, i.e. that more or less, maybe there's a little piece missing, but more or less you are on crude at the same supply of crude out of the region, including the Janbu facility and the STS that is taking place. As pre-war, it's not the case for clean. So it stands around 40% and has done some for a period of time. If the current political and military conflict stays the same, I am not confident that we will see a significant uptick or uplift from this 1 million to, let's say, back to where it was. with the same pattern that we saw on crude simply because a the risk involved with transportation of refined fuels and and the risk of having whether it's a drone or a missile attack simply has much higher consequences for the asset in in question number one and number two the refinery side uh in the middle east got i'm sure the producers there are I'm a little wary about going back to, coming back to, let's say, 100% of production, because you are a sitting dog. Should the situation deteriorate on the contract side, then you would be much more critically vulnerable having your facility up and running. Let's see, but to me it feels like if the political and also military situation would stay where it is now, you would not necessarily see an increase of the clean product exports, but we will continue to see the crude. But of course, the important piece in this is that crude is now being made available with some certainty to the various refiners, for instance in Asia, and they can, on their side, start to behave more commercial in their export volumes, which is actually what we have been benefiting from over the last one to two months, that there's a recovery in that activity.
Frode Mørkedal
Analyst, Clarkson Securities
Right, so it sounds like if Spray to Hormuz reopens to more normal levels, it's actually a positive thing. You'll get more PPP volumes out and it's not like these logistical bottlenecks or inefficiency around the SDS operation is more important than the volume part, right?
Jacob Meldgaard
Chief Executive Officer
I agree with that. If we only zoomed in on this particular area of focus, then clearly if you saw that the exports of CPP out of the refineries were both available and safe, you would see a significant higher uplift in ton mile. from the additional volume and from the inefficiency that is currently in play for clean vessels.
Frode Mørkedal
Analyst, Clarkson Securities
That's good. Yeah, next question was on, I guess, one of your peers last week talked about, you know, fairly good three-year and five-year time chartered years being offered or for new builds in, let's say, next year, 2077, deliveries, et cetera. Are you seeing the same? And just, I guess more broadly, would you consider more client-shutter business? I assume you're still favor spot-oriented model, but how do you see this?
Jacob Meldgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, currently, we, of course, explore all avenues with our clients but we've not seen something where our fundamental beliefs about normalization and the utilization rates that that would dictate timeshare would need to be more supportive obviously than our model and at this stage We're not seeing much of the forward curve being significantly above where our own models around supply demand comes out. But that can change, obviously. We will be very dynamic around that if the right opportunities arise, but it's not like we're seeing that the forward curve currently has a lot more value to offer than our own Thanks, Hans.
Frode Mørkedal
Analyst, Clarkson Securities
Final question is on the LO2 New Build Joint Venture. Is that something you were invited into and that's why the 50-50 structure rather than let's say full ownership?
Jacob Meldgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Well, it's something where we have been in dialogue with a partner or considerable peers about various ways to work together. The thing here is that what is important for us on our assets is that we have full control of the value chain when we operate them on the one-tone platform towards our clients, so that we've got technical, commercial, sort of the full in-house model. And in this particular case, we've come to an agreement where we, once the vessels have been delivered, and that we will share the economic of that venture with our partners. So it's exactly something that has been in the making for a longer period and where we share the view about the fact that the One Zone platform is the place to have these assets.
Frode Mørkedal
Analyst, Clarkson Securities
Okay, just a follow-up. Can you maybe quantify the equity portion of your, let's say, capex for this JV?
Jacob Meldgaard
Chief Executive Officer
No, we have confidentiality agreements on this as many of our commercial contracts. So, unfortunately, I'm not able to give that.
Frode Mørkedal
Analyst, Clarkson Securities
Fair enough. No worries. Thank you very much.
Jacob Meldgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks a lot, Paul.
Janine
Conference Operator
Thank you. Our last question comes from the line of Clement Collins from Volume, Disastrous Edge. Please go ahead.
Clement Collins
Analyst
Hi, good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. Most has already been covered, but I wanted to ask regarding the latest MR2 options you secured. Those are un-exercised for now, right? And if that's the case, until when can those options be exercised?
Jacob Meldgaard
Chief Executive Officer
So we have time still within this quarter to evaluate whether we will exercise the two options that you refer to.
Clement Collins
Analyst
Okay, that's helpful. That's everything for me. Thank you for taking my questions. Thank you.