TTE TotalEnergies SE

NYSE
$94.03

TotalEnergies SE Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

AI Conference Call Analysis

Sign in or subscribe to read.
Conference Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Total Energy's third quarter 2026 results conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speech, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 1 on your telephone. I must advise you that the conference will be recorded today, the 29th of October, 2026. Thank you for holding the conference. We'll start shortly. Thank you. Music Music Music Music Music Thank you. ¶¶ Thank you for watching! Music by Ben Thede Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Total Energy's First Quarter 2026 Results Conference. I now hand over to Patrick Pouyanne, Chairman and CEO, and Jean-Pierre Sbraire, CFO, who will lead you through this call. So, sir, please go ahead.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
Hello everybody, good afternoon or good morning, wherever you are. It's the third quarter result, not the first one, just to begin. So it's a live intervention, live speech. As Jean-Pierre will show you in a moment, TotalEnergies has demonstrated once again in this quarter its capacity to achieve an outstanding operational performance and to deliver a very strong set of results and cash flow. clearly reflecting the ability of the company to fully capture high prices. I would say all is green, not only the different market indicators, but also the operational performance, and I must praise all our teams around the world that delivered these results. And I could add that all is green as well, not only for the third quarter, but also for the first month of this fourth quarter, and probably for the rest of the year. Market conditions have been indeed very supportive, for all commodities that we are selling, the oil prices, started the quarter at $80 per barrel on the hopes of a lasting CIS-5 signed between the US and Iran, the MOU signed between the US and Iran, and finally rose again at levels above $110 per barrel and the dated brand being today at $121 per barrel. As a result of the broadening of the conflict to Pamela Mandev's rate of Saudi Arabia, and reflecting the persistent volatility of the situation in the region. The petroleum product prices of diesel gasoline have increased in a larger and unprecedented way as a consequence of massive disruption to the refined products logistics chain, triggered not only by the conflict in the Middle East but also by the unavailability of some Russian refining capacities due to the efficiency of the Ukrainian attacks. and so refining margins have reached historical records in Europe and in the rest of the world. Gas and energy prices in Europe and Asia started to rally this quarter as countries have started replenishing their inventories in view of winter consumption. This rally consequently pushed electricity prices up in some European countries where gas reflects a marginal cost of production of electricity. But beyond these favorable market conditions, this strong set of results highlights The strategic strengths of TotalEnergies, the integration and the geographical diversification of the company. I explained during our last CMD in New York that these two differentiating factors, together with our leading position being a low-cost producer, make TotalEnergies' best position to capture value from market disruptions. First, this quarter, we were able to fully leverage our integrated business model to capture margins. In the whole value chain, Integration has never been so relevant. We have been able to capture all prices from our growing upstream activities. We are taking full advantage of our midstream and trading capabilities to bring crude oil into our refineries and capture record high refining margins. This reflects highly valuable integration. The downstream have delivered the best quota ever for an exceptional combination of A record high margin and strong throughput increase as all our refineries are running up at full speed and Statoop is now back at nominal capacity since the end of the third quarter. And we anticipate of course same level of refining treatments in the fourth quarter. In the gas and energy value chain, our energy and gas traders were able this quarter to capture benefits of their long position on gas, which is now moving to be a winning position as gas prices have been rallying during the first quarter. With Europe attracting more LNG volumes right now and the TTF currently at around or above $30 per million BTU, LNG is still going up and we anticipate strong results as well for gas trading in Q4. And not only for gas trading, for LNG trading more globally. Second, our geographic diversification allowed us to mitigate the impacts of the Middle East crisis on our productions. The impact of the crisis in the Middle East on total energy overall production was reduced to around 5% over the quarter on average, which was in the low range of the guidance provided last quarter. Still, the company was able to grow rolling gas production by more than 3% quarter to quarter, supported by the ramp-up of projects launched in 2025 located mainly outside the Middle East. Excluding Middle East impact, the production growth even exceeds 4% year-on-year, clearly affecting our diversification in upstream growth. By the way, importantly as well, as we explained during the last CMD, during this quarter we took a certain number of final investment decisions, Kronos in Cyprus, IMA in Nigeria, Umshite Gas Cap in Abu Dhabi, and Absheron Phase 2 in Azerbaijan. And now all the projects contributing to achieving the extreme production growth target of more than 3% per year by 2030 are in execution phase. In integrated LNG, with geographic diversification, we are producing LNG in 11 countries, and as well the length of LNG Thank you very much. I would say no force majeure had no impact, in fact, on our costs, on our global costs, and we delivered that very efficiently to our customers. We also achieved some key milestones this quarter, establishing our LNG marketing GV with Cumul Petroleum, the national company in P&G, for 2.4 million tonnes per year, and the signature of an off-tech LNG agreement of 1.5 million tonnes per year. Strengthening the diversification of our LNG portfolio towards fast-growing Asian markets. So, I would say that this geographic diversification that some were considering some times ago as a weakness because being deemed to explode globally is considered today as a strength by our customers and a strong edge against geopolitical risks. Finally, and not very importantly, our operational performance across all business areas has been excellent again this quarter, I would say once again. So, refining our refineries at full capacity, optimizing utilization resulted in an increase of nearly 10% of our refining throughput this quarter, enabling the company to fully capture record high refining margins in Europe, but also in the U.S. and in the rest of the world, in particular Saudi Arabia. The company, once again, demonstrating its leadership to control costs, with operating costs of $4.7 per barrel, anchored strongly below $5 per barrel. By the way, this is the results of the cash-saving program we launched in 25 in view of a bearish year 26, but the program is still live today and delivering. The power business also saw an increase of more than 20% in net production this quarter, taking, of course, full benefits from the integration of the assets from OGV with EPH. Integrated Power is, again, well on track and will be net cash positive in 2027. Given the company's strong operational and financial results delivered by its business segment, its quarter, given the sustained high prices, the full year 2026 cash flow is now expected to be above $42 billion and maybe around even reaching $43 billion, supporting dividend growth while anchoring gearing below 10%. It's already 9%, but will be lower by the end of the year. In this context, and in line with the objective and the commitment of returning 40% of cash flow to shareholders, The Board of Directors has taken following decisions. First, we confirmed the third interim dividend at 90 cents of euros per share, up 5.9%, 9% compared to 25. Second, with the Board-authorized share buybacks of $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter and also $2.5 billion share buybacks in the first quarter, The board finally asked me to tell you that it reiterates its commitment to return 40% of cash flow to shareholders and that, if necessary, it might adjust upwards the final dividend to meet the 40% return. I will now hand over to Jean-Pierre to go through the details of the third quarter financials.
Jean-Pierre Sbraire
Chief Financial Officer, TotalEnergies
Thank you, Patrick. So I will start by commenting on the price environment for the first quarter of 2016. We capture high prices across most commodities. Brandt and liquid price remain elevated and increased throughout the quarter with the prolonged impact of the Middle East conflict. Brandt averaged $97 per barrel during the third quarter versus $104 per barrel in the second quarter, down $7 per barrel, while the average liquid price was $87 per barrel. Liquid selling price continued to reflect an elevated thread cost and decreased by $4.5 per barrel compared to the second quarter. TTF averaged $21.5 per million BTU, up 38% since last quarter average price of $15.6 per million BTU, driven by low inventories and the upcoming winter season demands. Our average LNG price increased by 20% to $12.3 per million BTU, reflecting the lag effects embedded in our contract pricing formulas and the increase in spot gas prices. But also, the European refining margin, which includes costs of natural gas, CO2, and freight costs, increased to an historically high level of $33 per barrel on average over the quarter, 2.5 times higher than the last quarter, supported by an unprecedented combination of In this high-priced environment, Total Energy leveraged its integrated business model and geographical diversification to deliver very strong financial results underpinned by the upcoming operational performance of all businesses, and the company's ability to capture value upside in disruptions. We reported, indeed, adjusted net income of $9.1 billion in the third quarter, increasing by more than 50% compared to the second quarter, and cash flow of $12.3 billion. TotalEnergies has delivered strong profitability this quarter, with return on equity at 19.6% and ROE at 17.4%. Let me now highlight four key takeaways from the quarter. Upstream delivered production growth up more than 3% quarter to quarter, notably due to the lower impact from the Middle East conflicts. Downstream achieved record high quarterly results, with cash flow increasing by almost $2 billion compared with the previous quarter, underpinned by all our well-functioning refineries. This allowed the company to fully capture historical high refining margins in Europe and worldwide. Oil trading activities also outperformed at a level comparable with the two previous quarters. Integrated LNG delivered very strong results, more than doubling compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the 20% increase in average LNG price and the outperformance of LNG and gas trading activities in a bull market. Integrated power cash flow generation continue to increase this quarter, supported by full quarter contribution from TCEP, our joint venture with EPH. Let's now dive into each of the business segments, starting with hydrocarbons. Third quarter hydrocarbons production was 2.47 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, On a year-on-year basis, excluding the impact of the Middle East conflict, production would be up by more than 4%, supported by the start-ups and ramp-ups of the project launched since the beginning of 2025, and benefiting from gradual return to normal oil operations in the Middle East. Over the quarter, the impact on production from the conflict in the Middle East is limited to around 5%, which is in the low range of the guidance given last quarter, This guidance being 5 to 10%. Looking forward, we expect to maintain strong momentum with hydrocarbon production in the fourth quarter, excluding the Middle East impact, expected to grow by more than 3% year on year, in line with the annual guidance. At present, we observe the impact of the Middle East below 5%, mostly coming from limited export from LNG volumes through the Strait of Hormuz. But we know that the situation remains volatile. Turning now to quarterly results for E&P, the segment generated an adjusted net operating income of $3.2 billion in this quarter and a cash flow of $5.4 billion, reflecting production growth and sensitivity to declining oil prices and rising gas prices quarter to quarter. On the cost side, as mentioned by Patrick, we continue to lead low-cost operations with an average OPEX per barrel of 4.7, below our guidance of less than $5 per barrel of oil equipment. On integrated LNG, the LNG production decreased by 7% quarter to quarter, mainly due to planned maintenance, notably on Angola LNG and Ixtis LNG. Adjusting net operating income was $1.9 billion and CFFO was $1.7 billion, underpinned by a 20% increase of average LNG prices and, in contrast with the second quarter, positively impacted by the outperformance of LNG and gas trading activities in the bull market, given the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and seasonality of demand. Given the evolution of oil and gas prices in recent months and the lag effect on pricing formula, The company anticipates an average energy selling price above $14 per million BTU for the first quarter 26. Turning now to integrated power. Over the first nine months of 26, net power generation increased to 44.3 TWh, up 25% year-on-year, driven by the growth of integrated power generation portfolios. Notably, the commissioning of new renewable capacities and the contribution of TTIP's assets in line with expectations. TotalEnergies is therefore on track to reach its annual objective in integrated power business to generate more than 60 TWh over the year. And cash flow from operations was up 7% quarter to quarter at nearly $0.8 billion, supported by the contribution from TT EPSX over a full quarter. Moving to downstream, during the third quarter, refining and chemicals achieved record results, driven by refinery throughputs of nearly 10% over the quarter, underpinned by all refineries well-functioning in Europe and in the United States, and the progressive return of the set-up refinery in Saudi Arabia to its nominal capacity. Successfully reached at the end of the quarter. Refining and chemical suggested net operating income was up to $3.6 billion and cash flow was up to $3.9 billion, demonstrating the segment's ability to capture historically high refining margins in Europe and worldwide. Meanwhile, all trading activities continue to outperform. Marketing and services deliver solid results with adjusted net operating income of nearly $0.5 billion and cash flow of nearly $0.7 billion in the third quarter, reflecting higher unit margins that more than offset lower volumes. Let me re-emphasize the strong CFFO generated by the company over the quarter of $12.3 billion, up 25% compared to last quarter. Net investment remained disciplined at $3.3 billion in the third quarter, in line with the annual guidance of a full year of 26 net investments of $15 billion. The company delivered an attractive shareholder return this quarter, totaling $3.7 billion, including dividends of 2.2 and share buyback of $1.5 billion. At the same time, the company reduced its net debt, underpinned by a free cash flow after payment of dividends of more than $6 billion and a positive working cap contribution of $3.1 billion during the third quarter. This reduction of the working cap notably driven by the increase in tax liability related to higher prices and an increase in suppliers payable related to the increased shipping costs. As a result, the gearing improved by 4 percentage points to reach 9.1%, already below the 10% level we guide at CMD for N26. To conclude, the integrated model and geographical diversification of total energy continues to demonstrate the company's exceptional ability to produce and deliver reliable energy and to capture higher prices and higher margins with a growing cash flow that supports growing the dividend, deleveraging the company, investing to deliver accretive growth by 2030 and beyond, and increasing share buybacks for our shareholders to $2.5 billion per quarter in the first quarter and in the first quarter, 27. With that, Patrick and I are available for your questions. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Conference Operator
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Please kindly mute any audio resources while asking a question. If you wish to cancel your request, please press the star 2. Once again, please press star 1 if you wish to ask a question. The first question is from Lydia Rainworth from Berkeley. Please, go ahead.
Lydia Rainforth
Analyst, Barclays
Thank you and good afternoon to both of you and I really appreciate the quarter. Two questions, if I could. Firstly, just coming back to, Patrick, what you said on the potential for the final dividend to be adjusted upwards. Are you thinking special dividend on that one? And then secondly... Thank you very much. Is that an unusual gap this far out? Are you in a better position than you would expect or slightly weaker? I just want to get a sense of the urgency in which you might want to add resources or whether it's something that you're relaxed about. Thanks.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
Okay. The second question is not related to the third quarter results versus CMD. But just to clarify, we have no urgency at all. I think what we told you at the CMD is that we have already in 2026 Until 2035, we see a plateau of 3 million barrels of oil per day. It's quite unusual for an oil and gas company to have zero decline during five years. And we gave you the list of the projects which are already there. So from this strong basis, announcing potential growth for 2% to 3% is not, I would say, there is nothing spectacular. Of course, 2% would be easier than 3%. It's just a normal, I would say, and we are demonstrating our ability here. In the last 10 years, either through exploration or through access to DROs, to, I would say, deliver this growth. So it's just a continuity, so we have no urgency. And secondly, I would say, just wait, maybe with Monday morning, you will have a beginning of the answer to that. We'll make some announcements about access to DROs. You will see that we continue to be active on this matter. It's a permanent, I would say. I think there's strength for Total Energy. Since 2015, we have consistently looked to, I would say, book reserves, either 1P, 2P, and I think it's a strength of the company. So that's just a question of trust. So we are very good. Yes, and I would say, are you better positioned than usually? The answer is yes, because we have already a visibility of zero decline until 2035, from 2030 to 2035. So thank you, Elia, for the question. I hope I clarified it. Maybe my English is not good enough. The question I just mentioned to you, look, we committed to 40%, okay? If you take $42 billion, 40% with $8 billion of buyback plus $8.6 billion of dividend, it's okay. If we are not at $42 billion, but we are at $43 billion, and I mentioned that figure during my speech, then there is a lack somewhere of, let's say, $400 billion, let's say $500. So the question for the board is, It's just what I told you, the board asked me to tell you that in that case, when we will decide the final dividend in February, in fact, we have a normal final dividend, but we'll consider, I would say, an uplift of the final dividend, and $400 or $500 billion represents $420 per share, in fact. We have 2.5 billion shares. We might consider, in order to meet the commitment, To put, I would say, I don't know if you call it special, an uplift dividend on the final dividend, not making it and we'll pay it together with the final dividend. That's the way that we want to respect the commitment. And honestly, we will all be happy if we reach 43 billion rather than 42. But that's, I would say, what I'm adding today. So first... Some of you told us we were conservative on 40 billion at the CMD. I'm not sure. Honestly, we learn month after month, but today maybe we are less. We say 42 and maybe even 43. And then we are committed to 40%. That's what you need to understand. Amazing. Thank you. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Biray Bolkartaria from RBC. Please, go ahead.
Biraj Borkhataria
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just two, please. The first one is on integrated gas. You had a really strong result and obviously you flagged the long gas position with the CMB and the commentary around that. I was wondering how we should think about the flow through into the fourth quarter and sort of the exceptional element and the reversal in the third quarter and how you should think about the earnings sustaining at this level into the fourth quarter. And then second question is just on Uganda. Can you get a quick update ahead of the startup and sort of commissioning activities and where we are now and risk factors and so on? Thank you.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
So on energy, I told you during my speech, I think I gave you a good indication of what we anticipate on the fourth quarter. In fact, our position, you know, you've seen that TTF continues to go up. It's at $33 per million BTO. And so we anticipate, I would say I was looking to exactly what I just told you two minutes ago. I just told you that with Europe attracting more energy volumes right now, and it is currently around or above $30 per million BTU, energy is still going up and we anticipate strong results as well as for gas trading in Q4, which means... You should expect a performance in the same range for Q4. But part of why when I'm trying to anticipate or I would say the global cash flow for the year, there is today a range of 42, 43. I would add as well that we put in the forecast, we announced that the energy price would be above $14 per million. In fact, It was based on an assumption on TTF, I think around 25 or 27. At 33, we are more next to 15 than 14, I would say. So I see only potentially, I would say, some upsides on the LNG business in the fourth quarter. That's what I could comment on this one. On Uganda, I think there are two different things. You know, we have, of course, IACOP, the pipeline. which is progressing well because the intent is to start up Kingfisher, the offshore production, this year. And so that is, of course, to start up Kingfisher, we need the aircraft to be fully commissioned. So we are at 95%, I think, or something like that. And as I said, during the CMB on Tilinga, we expect to start up during the first half, I think, of 2021. Thank you. The next question is from Jason Gableman from TD Cowan. Please go ahead.
Jason Gableman
Analyst, TD Cowen
Thanks for taking my questions. Patrick, you commented at the CMD a month ago about potential appetite for U.S. shale acquisitions, and we've had investors asking about those comments since then. Prior to the event, you previously said you were interested in shale gas rather than shale oil, so I was hoping you could clarify that. If you want to grow your oil business in the United States and if it involves shale, and I'll ask my second question now as well. The other focus from investors that we've heard is on the uncertainty in France. I was hoping you could talk through Total's earnings exposure directly to France, potential risks of new taxes the government can impose on Total, and then any thoughts around impact on cost of capital given what's going on in the country. Thank you.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
Okay, thank you for the two questions, which will help me to clarify the first one. Let me be clear, our M&A is counter-cyclical. I'm not sure that acquiring any oil production in the world today would be a lot. There will be a counter-cyclical when you see the price of oil, so no panic. Secondly, we always said in the U.S. that our priority is on gas, natural gas. We have a big LNG position. We want to integrate the value chain. By the way, today, natural gas is quite low. It's more contentious than gold. Today, it's $3, I would say. But there are also some liquids with gas. That's all my comments. You know, so I like gas. I like the liquids as well. There is no opposition of the liquids. So that's the priority today. We said that we were targeting something like 1 BCFD. We want to continue to grow in the LNG in the U.S. So 1, 1.5, 2 BCFD would be for us a good target. So keep that in mind. My comments have been a foot extrapolated. I just continue to think that liquids is good as well as gas. That's all. And the U.S. is good. We have a large buy base of U.S. investors, so the board is supportive of moving to the U.S. if we have the opportunity. But again, as I said also today, we have a strong base of growth today. So it's not to grow, it's more to expand. The French state is not a shareholder of total energies. I spent my roadshows to re-explaining that to all our investors, so maybe you could help me. All of us, all of you, by explaining that there is no direct interest of French state in Total Energies, there is no golden share, there is no say, we are a publicly listed company which is managed independently. First comment. Second comment, we are a global company, largely an international company. I think our results, our cash flow, let's say, and capital employees, around 7% is located in France, to give you a round figure. I don't know if it's six, seven, eight, depends on the year. So it's not a French company. It's an headquarters in France and we are proud of that, you know, like all the French people. We have grown on that basis. I think it's even sometimes a strong advantage in some parts of the world. Geopolitically, we are the only non-Anglo-Saxon major oil and gas company, so it has some value as well. So I would say that's the second point. Third, on taxation. If you had listened yesterday to the debate of the Parliament, it was a lot about taxation of total energies. The government has pushed back all the amendments. None of them has been adopted. And because why? Because again, I repeat, we took this initiative in the country to put a ceiling on the gasoline and diesel price for the customers. We have been very clear with all the Thank you very much. All these companies. Of course, politics is politics, but that's the situation. And I'm convinced that our direct action to customers in France was the right move that we've done. Of course, I know it's bold, it's innovative, but it's a way to preserve, and by the way, we have the benefit of it in terms of image with our customers. I'm sure you have asked questions. The cost of this protection... And of course more expensive today because with the diesel and gasoline going up, it costs us a little more. It's around, I would say, by end of October, around $500 million more or less. And we anticipate that that is. But I remind you that in 2022, we paid more taxes. By the way, for French people and French auditors, the good news is that because we have good French business this year, refining in France are running well. We should pay around 500 million euros of corporate tax. So if I'm adding both, it's an exceptional contribution to the country of 1 billion, I would say, euros, which I think is quite sizable with a direct impact to customers. So that's my comments. Again, we don't control politics, but we do our best in order to explain that today. And I think it's more and more perceived by... Total Energy is an asset for the country and should be as well considered by the different leaderships.
Jason Gableman
Analyst, TD Cowen
Great, thanks for the answers, Patrick.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Martin Ratz of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Martijn Rats
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Yeah, hi, hello. Two questions from my side as well. I just wanted to come back to the CFFO figure of 42 to 43 billion. Because if you look at where commodity prices are, data Brent is 120, TTF nearly 100 yesterday, refining margins pretty darn good. If the comment is also that trading in the fourth quarter will be once again strong, It wouldn't be beyond the wit of man to think that the fourth quarter would be even higher than that. So, which then raises the question whether this 42 to 43 sort of indication either just embeds some conservatism because, okay, these prices are on the screen now, but they might change, or whether there might perhaps be some working capital outflow or some payments that might be overlooking, that might be sort of a bit unusual in the fourth quarter. I presume it's the former rather than the latter, but I wanted to raise the question on the left whether there might be anything in the fourth quarter that we should be aware of from a cash perspective. And the second question I wanted to ask relates to the hybrid. There is about 1.7 billion in the net debt from the 1.5 billion euro hybrid that you called. And I was wondering what your approach to hybrids now is. Would you expect the hybrid to be refinanced with another hybrid? or is this hybrid now called? And that's sort of the end of it. Can you perhaps give some clarity on that and also how that is impacting the various line items in the balance sheet? Maybe some detail on that because that can be quite tricky to figure out.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
First, I said cash flow from a question will be above 42%. might be around 43. So with that, honestly, Martin, I don't know if you know and whoever knows in the planet what the U.S. president will decide after the midterms in the Middle East. I don't know. Nobody knows, in fact. So there was an article in the Wall Street Journal that it could be a short but brutal conflict. I don't know. So what will be the impact On the market, you know, honestly, today it's quite, I mean, I'm somewhere amazed. In the spring, everybody and the forward curve was, all the markets were behaving as if the war will end by summertime. I don't know where it was written. The forward were lower. Today, everybody believes, the market believes the war will stay for long. I don't know. So, honestly, by giving you a guidance of about 42 and around 43, I think we are probably right in the ballpark. If it's more, again, the commitment of the board is that if it was 43.5, for example, you will get back the 40% of the additional cash flow placed on the final dividend. That's what I can tell you. There is no way, on the second point, when we speak about cash flow from operations, there is no impact on working capital. We don't, honestly, on the fourth quarter, that's true that this quarter is quite unusual, we had, I would say, an inflow, quite a big inflow in the third quarter, generally the fourth quarter, we'll explain to you why. We anticipate, but it's very difficult to be honest, to anticipate working capital movements, because With the price of all, which has an impact on all the inventories, etc., where will the price of rent be end of the year? I don't know. Today, I would say we anticipate a plus one, minus one, I mean a neutral position on the fourth quarter under the control of Jean-Pierre. And we don't have any unusual cash items that we anticipate for the fourth quarter, so... Again, I would be happy to have been wrong, but I think we give you a good guidance today, and if we are wrong, because we make more cash flow. But it will not be bad for our investors, because again, we return 40%. The hybrids. The hybrids, it's a typical topic for Jean-Pierre, which is an expert in hybrids. So I will give him the floor to explain. But today, in fact... Yeah, that's true, that we call...
Jean-Pierre Sbraire
Chief Financial Officer, TotalEnergies
Jean-Pierre is a fan of the hybrid because of the cost of the hybrid.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
Yes, it's 3%. So the question for us is 3%, you know, today if we issue a bond, it's about 3, 3.5 to 4. So why should we get rid of these IRAs at 3%? Of course, the question will be, and it's a good question, linked to what will be the perspective of the interest rates, at which price could we refinance these IRAs or not. But again, and it's linked to the low giving position If we continue to have some cash flow, of course, this could impact the way we manage the different source of, I would say, treasury for the company. This is one of them. There are also, as you know, some standards. Standards is the right name. Discussions regularly with rating agencies. At which point do we consider that... Our equity and at which point they become a debt. So that's part of the debate. Again, for me, on this topic, I would say to you, what is the most important for my CEO is what is the cost of the debt. And this is a cost for me, which is for the company. Because this is their cash. It's called an hybrid or it's called a bond. I don't see much difference from my office. So that's the policy that we are following on this topic. So to have the detail of the impact of the balance sheet, I think before to explain you that, Martin, I will need Jean-Pierre and Arnaud to explain that to me.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst, Wolfe Research
It will take a little time, you know.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
I recognize that. Okay, thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Christopher Coupland from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Christopher Kuplent
Analyst, Bank of America
Thank you very much. Patrick, I'm going to keep it to one question on your outlook regarding Europe's gas prices and the market that we now enter into. Given we have heating season and you have, I guess, more insight than we have into what's happening at Yamal, do you think with the reroutings going on in 2027 that Yamal can maintain its utilization? or do you think there will be a net loss of LNG volumes because it will be harder to send tankers around the world if Europe is no longer taking it? Thank you.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
I think the answer is in your question. Because, you know, first on the outlook of the European gas price, I would say it's quite clear that we are entering in a dangerous period. You know, we have seen the price has reached as anticipated by the way 100 euros per megawatt hour so it becomes to be a A political, I would say, strong signal. It's clear that, unfortunately, winter season is the peak season, but Qatar has restarted some energy production and exports, but today, in September, October, I would say you had more or less around from Qatar or from Abu Dhabi, by the way, because both countries are producing. We had only 25% of the normal energy tankers flow, Thank you very much. Jean-Pierre Sbraire, Jean-Pierre Sbraire, Jean-Pierre Sbraire The production of Yamaha, which is around 19 or 20, if I remember, is going to China, to Asia, fundamentally, to China. So, as you also know, there has been an amendment to the sanctions in July, in which there is Denagas, which is an EU shipowner of an energy tanker, has been authorized to ship Some LNG from Yamal outside of the EU. So that means that this fleet is limited. It's a limited LNG fleet. And of course, there is an impact where will the LNG go. If it goes to Mediterranean Sea, it's not much different with the EU. If it has to go to India, of course, it's a longer trip. If it goes to China, it's even longer trip. On our side, historically, we had, I don't want to make it, 5 million tons of energy transplants with Yamal. There is 1 million tons which is, in fact, not possible because of the sanctions for different reasons, which is not eligible, so we have 4. And when we make the math today, we think that we might offtake between 3, maybe 4, 3, let's say 3 million tons. It will depend again about where this energy will go through. So I just described you for total energies, just to explain to you that I don't have the full picture of Yamal, to be honest, because we have limited today our interest only on what can be done according to the EU sanctions. But yes, the answer to you is yes, there will be an impact if you have no... The EU was a natural destination from the LNG tankers just because of optimizing the shipping freight, in fact, and the shipping costs. So the fact that it did not come to the EU definitely from January 2012 will have an impact on the capacity of the plant to export its full volumes. I don't have a clear vision as well, to be honest, about the relationship today between Yamal and the Chinese of the years because this is also the other part of the equation. So that's my comment on this one. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Michele Della Vigna of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michele Della Vigna
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Thank you and congratulations on the strong quarter. Two things I wanted to ask. First, in a quarter of unprecedented freight rates, I was wondering if you could tell us a little bit how you think about your current tanker portfolio, how much is on long-term rates versus spot, and how this impacts your realizations and trading capabilities. And then finally, we've seen a big increase in appetite for long-term LNG contracts with customers trying to diversify away from Hormuz. I was wondering if that is leading to an improved in the pricing. I would think recently the oiling contracts have been around 12.5% oil slope if we're seeing an improvement on that. Thank you.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
Two questions. Thank you. First, freight rates. I think it's a new topic. I never had a question since I'm CEO, but freight rates, suddenly they become popular. Different comments on this one. First, you probably noticed that our liquid realization, there was a difference between the third quarter and the second quarter of $6 per barrel. The $6 per barrel represents more or less the additional price cost, which is in fact in our portfolio quite limited because our policy, in fact, today we have some long-term, medium and long-term, I would say, what do you call that? Charter. Charter. which represent more or less 40% of the equity that we offtake. Why 40% is a good figure? Because, in fact, as you know, our average taxation rate on upstream is around 45%, so 40% that means that we are somewhere trying to neutralize the impact on our equity crude oil of, I would say, a variable rate. The second comment is that all Charter with medium and long term are really with fixed rates. We don't sign within total energies. Charters which will be with a link to, I would say, a spot market. We don't just reserve a capacity. We have a capacity. We have the tanker plus a freight. And of course, our traders during this quarter and I think next quarter are benefiting today Thank you very much. Thank you. One of the successes of the third quarter, which I think will move on to the fourth quarter, is that they have been able to have access to some tankers going inside the Strait of Hormuz, of taking in particular some Iraqi crude oil, and then exiting and then making this trade, generating some positive results. So that's our philosophy on trading rates. And I think there is a difference between different companies because some competitors have some charters but linked to the spot market for freight, which is not our case. When we charter, we charter on fixed rates. Yes, second question. It's true, but again, as I mentioned during my speech, at GASTEC, we had a number of companies Long queue of customers coming to us. Clearly there is a trend there in Asia, I would say, to try to escape from the volatility of the GKM. You know, GKM is not very popular today. It was the case in 22, we tend to forget in 24-5 today. Again, this volatility clearly for these economies is not good, so they are coming back to ask a link to Brent. And of course, in such an environment, There is a trend for some of them to move from 12, 12, 12.5. The improvement is not as well, I would say. You don't reach today higher than 12.5, I would say. But again, it's negotiation, so it depends where you are. Of course, where the energy is procured, we're just in charge, we are just commercializing the Papua energy, I would say, 2.4 million tons with Cumul and we have some good results from this perspective which has the profitability of Papua LNG.
Michele Della Vigna
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Thank you Patrick.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Alistair Syme from CT. Please go ahead.
Multiple Analysts
Alastair Syme (Citi); Mark Wilson (Jefferies); Henri Patricot (UBS)
Thank you. Hi Patrick. Just one question I wanted to Get your thoughts about the current environment and downstream and whether that makes you think any differently about investing in that business. I'm really thinking about geographical mix or pushing more into biofuels or mix of assets versus trading. Is there anything on your mind from what we've seen in recent months?
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
Thank you. I've been blunt during the CME. I told you no, I will not invest in new refineries. I maintain that position. I think it's quite exceptional. Of course, it encourages us to maybe consider maintaining these capacities, and that's the whole point. Biofuels, honestly, it's a complex economy, it's a regulated economy, so there might be some pockets, but we have to be careful about the way that the regulation will evolve. There is, in some countries, a trend to more biofuels, but you know, in Europe, there is always a debate between food and biofuels, which is continuously impacting the development of that business, or We have been opportunistic. We will start up the Grand Prix Bio Refinery in this quarter. So we'll have access to more HVO. HVO seems to become a more popular fuel in Europe. There has been a deal between France and Germany about the new light vehicles regulation where the French have accepted that HVO A vehicle, an IC vehicle which would be supplied by 100% HVO would be acceptable. So we don't know for which volume because it's a matter of volume. But so there is something happening there. All that is regulated. We need, of course, to be sure that this regulation will change again in a few years. In our environment today, I would say, by the way, so we know what we've done fundamentally was to maintain and reduce the European exposure because of the trend. This is a question mark that we maintain. Outside, we have developed our platforms in Port Arthur and we have developed it by integration of petrochemicals. We have this big refinery of Amirol, of Satov, which we complement by Amirol. I think it was the right strategy to go where the energy is cheap. In fact, for me, you make refineries, it's better to go where energy is cheap. That's very simple. So that's what I would say, but We will not change our strategy. Our strategy is fundamentally oil and gas upstream. It's integration and maintaining, I would say, downstream as a cash flow. I think today it's a super cash flow, so that's good for us. And continuing to invest in integrated power, which has a good momentum by the way today in both sides of the Atlantic, US and Europe, with all these projects. AI and Activities. So I would say I don't see an inflection on the business. Having said that, the question will be again to consider that these midstream assets have a value, an opportunistic value, and then taking decisions to shut down might be more tricky than it was before. So that's, I would say, the strategic conclusion, but we will review Maybe my question would be different if I see three years in a row of $20 per barrel of refining margin. For the time being, I'm happy with what happened. I think the refining margin in Europe will remain quite good, quite strong during the first half of 2027 because we will embark the consequence of the crisis, low inventories. Beyond, it's very difficult to say what will happen. That will happen, and honestly, that's one of the most complex questions for us, is what assumption do we take on refining margin for 2027 for the budget? So don't ask me, because we will depend on our mood on February, on January, or December, January. We'll see.
Multiple Analysts
Alastair Syme (Citi); Mark Wilson (Jefferies); Henri Patricot (UBS)
Great. Thanks very much.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Matt Lufting from GP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Matt Lofting
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Thanks everybody for taking the questions. I'll just ask one on capital allocation. Given the strength of position that this year's cash flow and deleveraging creates for Total Energies, did you see any further opportunities outside of the comments that you just made on refining to accelerate the strategy through incremental organic investment which can further enhance the business's cash flow leverage to price whilst also helping I think for us,
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
First, no, we have a strategy, we have a plan, we will not become to be a pro-cyclical because suddenly we have more cash. That's the beginning of the mistake, of the short-term mistake. So fundamentally, yes, I would say yes on the point that, as I said during, I think, the CMD. Of course, today, making Enfield Wells to produce more oil in Angola, in Nigeria, there are opportunities. We will review their budget soon. If they are asking $500 million or $300 million, I will not say no stupidly because it's a short-term delivery. So, of course, this is what we see. For me, the short-term, the short-cycle capex that we can easily, I would say, arbitrate. I think one of the lessons is that on the question is, of course, we are looking to do we need to have, for example, where I'm ready to consider to have more, I would say, working capital is Maybe more LNG charter if we need to be long on the midstream assets. I would say that's a possibility. Chartering, not to be perfectly efficient, but to have some margins in order to be able to capture the volatility. That's one of the lessons. I would say investing in some pipeline in the Middle East because this is part of the security of supply and so giving value to our own assets. But I agree. To invest in Europe for energy security in fossil fuels, I will need to see a different Bible at the European Parliament, to be honest. I'm not sure we are still there. So, honestly, let's not jump suddenly in that direction. I just mentioned that we could maintain our business today, and that's true. To grow in fossil fuels in Europe, I will need to hear different narratives From the European political leaders, and I'm not sure they are still there, but again, we work with them on that. Our investments for total energy, honestly, when we contribute to security of supply of Europe, is more when we invest outside of Europe. Investing in US energy, investing in Brazilian oil, investing in Mozambique energy, that's contributive to the security of supply of the continent. I think it's a It's more all DNA. We have been created 100 years ago on this, I think, assumption, and I think this is what we do. That's my comment.
Matt Lofting
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Very good. Very clear. Thank you.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
So discipline and capital allocation is a key word. Okay.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Kim Fousey of HSBC. Please, go ahead.
Kim Fustier
Analyst, HSBC
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, please. You've just referred to potentially participating in pipeline routes through Abu Dhabi, Iraq, and Syria. What would you need to see in terms of utilization, tariffs, and contractual protection for these investments in new export infrastructure to earn an adequate return, especially if this capacity might be valuable only during periods of disruption? And then secondly, given the very high cost of moving crude long distances, have you sort of changed your crude sourcing or Refinery Optimization to Reduce Freight Exposure and Does Your Integrated Trading System Allow You to Protect Your Realized Refining Margins Better Than, Say, Regional or Local Refiners Can? Thank you.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
First question, we are discussing today on different schemes. We are participating to two projects. So I cannot today, I would say... I mean, answer precisely, there are negotiations, so I cannot enter into a commercial, sharing commercial discussions today with you. Again, I think at the end of the day, the right word is that we need to be sure that the upstream revenue is not moving to the midstream one, so it's a question of balancing the position between the upstream and the midstream, and I think that's a question. The question of protection, again, yes, I know all that, but this is being discussed, and when we'll have a better clarity on it, I will come back to you. Today is premature to comment on that, and I don't want to interfere today with any of the discussion. The second one, it's a permanent, I would say, optimization of the crude slate of refinery is part of the permanent job of what we call refining, refiner, optimizer. working very closely with the traders. We have, in fact, an organization in Geneva around the same desk, but we have the refining optimizer just next to the food trader, and they permanently look to the different slates. And, you know, when we lost the Russian oil, we had to find other slates for refineries. And today, of course, it's an optimization which integrates, obviously, the cost of shipping. That's part of it, you know, when you raise Before it was, I would say, cost of shipping was 5% of the cost of rent. I would say $2,000 per barrel. Today we speak about $25 per barrel. So of course, this is part of the equation to optimize the supply of the refinery. Of course, if you can have access to some barrels from Norway, oil barrels from Norway, it's more efficient from a longer distance. But this is why, I think, fundamentally, our model is very efficient integration. At the end, in our results, as you notice, refining chemicals, this is the reason why we integrate in one segment refinery and trading. Because this is, for me, it's up to us to decide what is the price for price. What I want them to give up is not to have a fight between traders and refiners, but to optimize the supplies of the refineries which of course has a value for our traders. By the way, just to clarify for you, in our European refining margin, but I'm sure you know about it, it's not the pure difference of petroleum products minus crude oil. It integrates in the European refining margin the cost of the freight, the cost of natural gas, and the cost of CO2. That's why when you see $50 in the U.S., Well, of course, you have known that natural gas is very cheap, energy is cheap. I would say there is no CO2 and the freight is limited to pipelines. Today, Port Arthur is benefiting more from $50 per barrel and not from $25 per barrel. So the indicator is taking into account this long-distance impact which we have. But again, we optimize and we change the cool slate according to what is the best mix Of course, we also optimize considering the slave of the products. If you want to make more diesel, we select crude oil, which are being able to deliver more diesel or jet fuel than gasoline. That's also part of the equation. It's a very interesting job for young people to optimize permanently, refining optimizer. Maybe, Kim, you should be invited by one of them during one day. We'll see what they do. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Wolf Research. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst, Wolfe Research
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Patrick, I wonder if I could take two quick ones. First, your gearing is now under 10%. How much lower are you prepared to allow that to go? I assume... Deploying windfall cash flow to the balance sheet is still a good idea. And then my follow-up is, I can go back to a question from earlier regarding the post-2030 visibility. A really simple question. With what you know today from the portfolio, what's the most likely way to fill the gap to growth? Is it exploration, new project entries, or M&A? Thank you.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
The second question is quite easy. You look to our performance in the last 10 years. It's DROs, access to new projects, is really the easiest one. In particular, if you are able to make some direct discussions, where we have been quite good at. So that's, I would say, when you look to down. Exploration is also part of it. I would say it's 25, 75. Even A, it's another topic. It's a different approach, you know, and... It's not when we speak, when I mentioned the 2-3%, we didn't have big M&A in the head, to be clear with you, just to clarify. The largest M&A we've done in E&P was most sold historically for 8 billion euros or 8 billion dollars. So when I mentioned the 2-3%, don't interpret that as an announcement of a big M&A. If there was a big M&A, it would be on the top, or the base would be higher. So that's not what we had in mind. It was fundamentally, I would say, 70% zero, 75% zero, 25% exploration actually done during the last 10 years. First one, it's a good question. I had several times this question, so then it's a good to hear. I mean, there is a point there which is also a quite complex equation, because you could look at it from a financial point of view. There is a point today where as long as the interest rates are low and that we deliver a debt, if we pay 54% for the debt and we have a yield of 5%, I don't know why we would go 0%. There is a point where you could see a financial balance. Then you could also say, which is in fact also shared, that's why the board is, the client would be a very strong balance sheet. We have a world of crisis. We don't know where we will go. You know, today it's a crisis which is pushing price up. You could have another crisis like we had in 2020, price goes down. And so to have a very strong balance sheet will allow us to swallow this crisis. You know, our two US peers in 2015 were in the positive part, and it helped them a lot, I think. The journey of these two companies was quite different from 15 to 25 to the journey of the European majors, partly because of that. I would be happy to face those questions practically. Maybe it could come. We'll have to continue to evaluate the pro and cons and to say where we go. But there is no taboo there. No taboo, but to be pragmatic in the way to, again, manage... The global cash of the company. Knowing that I noticed that some of you count the leaves, etc. So we need to look at all the equations as well. Some of you have reported that we are not yet under 10. We are at 14. So to be under 10, for some of you, I need to be under 6, if I understand correctly, this morning. So maybe my objective is to be under 6 so that I will stop these comments that we are not at 10, but at 14. So we'll... I can work on that. Maybe it's easier as a first target.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst, Wolfe Research
Maybe just for clarification, Patrick, do you see any value in a special dividend?
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
No, I told you I answered to that. I mean, I've been clear. There is a value if you announce it in advance. In fact, what we are just doing today by telling you we can put a top-up on the final dividend, which would be 40% of the difference of the cash flow to meet the 40%. I give you an equation today. I told you today that 40% of the cash flow minus $8 billion of buyback, which we have minus $8.6 billion of dividends, will be the base of this, I would say, top-up of the final dividend. That's the way we work on it. But again, what I will notice is We were clear at the CMD when we made, and my investor team has done, a roadshow with all the investors that a large majority, not all of them, of course, but I see 80% or 85% were more in favor of leveraging than a special dividend. Because the special dividend, we need to put a formula. Consider that today, with 40% of cash flow, we have a sort of formula. but we could also match it directly with the buyback. The buyback is a normal way to match the 40% this year because we are running because the positive or high results will do it by putting a top up on the final dividend.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst, Wolfe Research
Thank you so much.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Mark Wilson from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Multiple Analysts
Alastair Syme (Citi); Mark Wilson (Jefferies); Henri Patricot (UBS)
Thank you. Just two points, Patrick, maybe you could clarify on. You spoke before about some LNG moving out of the Gulf. There has been reports of volumes getting back to pre-war levels in terms of oil from some reports. Could you give us your understanding of movement around the Straits today or in the last few weeks? I appreciate it's volatile. That's the first one. And then the second one is the Venus development we continue to wait for. Should we be expecting that in the very near future? And the moving parts, any movement on that long license extension agreement? Thank you.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
In Namibia, we are starting the drilling of the open air well this month. That's good news. Second news, don't listen to contractors, but listen to the operator. And I think I said everything during the last CMD that we are optimistic to reach the FID. Okay? First point, today where we can say on four moves, in fact globally, you could say that there were 20 million barrel of oil per day going from the region, the pre-war. You have five, six for Yambou, you have two for Fujairah, and you have 10, 12 for Hormuz. So that's 20 million are going to crude oil, crude oil, crude oil. are going to the market with different routes. So we are around, for almost a month now, 12 million barrel of oil per day, which represents six tankers per night, more or less. That's 2 million barrel of oil. The LTC is 2 million. To be honest, it's a new policy. The three NOCs have decided, Aramco, Adnok, Kuwait, but also Qatar for crude oil, have decided that they have their own tankers, old ones, They go through. If they have attacks, they are attacked by Iran, but they have decided that now they have to go through a set of moves. On LNG, it's a little more tricky because LNG tankers are a little more sensitive in case of, I would say, attack. Again, I mentioned, I said during my, just to, I think, a previous question, but what we have observed today is that you have, let's say, 25% of the move in the last two months compared to pre-war, so around, I would say, 1.5 to 2 million tons compared to 8. I don't know if it will go up or not. I think it's a decision which is more complex because then it's more sensitive, you know. An energy tanker is a little... And the value is not exactly the same. So, but I would say decisions which will be taken by the regulatory authorities and we are following that.
Kim Fustier
Analyst, HSBC
Thank you. I'll hand it over. Henri?
Conference Operator
Operator
Let's move on to the next one. Yes, the next question is from Henri Patricot from UBS. Please go ahead.
Multiple Analysts
Alastair Syme (Citi); Mark Wilson (Jefferies); Henri Patricot (UBS)
Yes, hello everyone. Just one question from my side, speaking to the Middle East and the Ratawi project in Iraq. Can you give us some data on what you expect in terms of the production ramp-up from the project in the current environment? Thank you.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
We are moving up. We think we are targeting to move to... We are already producing more than 100,000 parts per day. I think we are starting right now, I think last week, this week, we have started the first gas project, the first what we call GMP25, I think it's 15 million steps per day, or if I remember well. And the full phase one, which is supposed to reach 120,000 miles per day, will be done by November. So we are really today ramping up on the oil side and on the gas. So the first phase of Attaway for me is done, and then... We are working. We have mobilized, I would say, we have 3,000, 4,000 people. I think it was in Iraq recently. 4,000 people in the field to build the full field, which will reach 210,000 miles per day and 3,000,000 people per day of gas.
Conference Operator
Operator
Thank you. Next one. The next question is from Bertrand Hody from Cap-Rouge. Please go ahead.
Bertrand Hodée
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux
Yes, hello. Thank you for taking my question. Two quick ones. You had an underlifting position in your UAE offshore production in Q2. We're wondering whether those underlifting positions have increased in Q3 and what was the impact on ENP results and cash flow and whether you can... And the second question is, you mentioned that Qatar LNG exports is probably back to 25% in October, but I was wondering whether you're trained in Qatar as we started or not?
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
No, no, the second question is clearly no. The Qataris are doing that, you know, they are a big... They are commercializing most, in fact, as you know, most of the LNGs, most commercialized by Qatar LNG, in fact, by Qatar Energy, I would say, themselves. So, I would say the supply contracts we have are in force majeure, and I think they are in force majeure for long. Today, they prioritize, obviously, their own customers for what they can expose, which is quite limited. So, no, we are continuing to... We have done some liftings in the first quarter. But at the same time, the production is back almost to a normal level. So that means that, yes, we are in an underlifting position. To give the accounting impacts on an underlifting position, Bertrand, as I'm a little late because I know that Wael wants to speak at 3.30 after me, I will ask you just to go to the experts of the accounting. It's not me. It's Renaud and his team. And so Renaud is not an expert, but he has some people in his team which are good in that. Sorry for that. So yes, we have an underlifting position. We try to minimize it. We do our best. But we are not the only one. I think all the IOC are in this situation and we'll catch up as quick as we can. But all that is not an easy task. We are not national companies. We have our own tankers to expose. We have to pay insurance costs and all that. Okay, thank you. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Ferguson Needy from Rothschild & Co. Let's burn. Please go ahead.
Fergus Neill
Analyst, Rothschild & Co Redburn
Yeah, hi there. Thanks very much for taking my questions. Just a couple of quick ones on iPower, if I might, please. It was good to see another strong cash flow ex-working capital performance from iPower this quarter. I was just curious what cash generation and asset sale proceeds Thank you very much.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
Okay, it's a good question because we have, in fact, in the fourth quarter, you know, we have announced two important sales down, far and down to KKR, for almost 2 gigawatts between Europe and the U.S., representing an EV, a global EV of $3 billion, so it's quite big. That means that we'll get the impacts, and by the way, I don't have any questions, but I saw some comments on organic capex. In fact, again, our commitment is, I repeat, the commitment is $15 billion of net capex. This will be rich because we'll have, I would say, some proceeds of this found down during the third quarter. It's almost $1.5 billion. The impact on the capex is even a little higher because we spent some money during the year, which will be recouped. And you have also an impact, a positive impact on the... I think the target is around $800 million for integrated power. We were already almost at $800 million this quarter, and we should go up, because I think for the year, the anticipated cash flow from integrated power for the full year is around $3 billion. You know, we told you we might be balanced this year, and free cash flow, we are a little more, the net capex will be around $3 billion. I think the cash flow which are expected is 3 billion. So you will see an improvement which is also coming across from the full effect of the GV with ETH in the accounts. So I would say, yes, we are on the way to, again, 27 will be free cash flow positive and integrated power will contribute to the dividend of the company.
Kim Fustier
Analyst, HSBC
Okay.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Ahmed Ben Salem from OdoBHS. Please go ahead.
Ahmed Ben Salem
Analyst, ODDO BHF
Yeah, hi, thank you. Just one question on the geographical mix. So you have materially expanded your U.S. offshore records with the Chevron over the last 18 months. Is this opportunistic or part of a broader strategy to scale up in the U.S. Gulf? And what is your long-term ambition for this basin? Thank you.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
Yes, thank you for the question. It's a good question. In fact, you probably noticed that we have done some exploration, I would say, deal with Chevron. In fact, as you know, yes, we have an ambition to continue to grow in the Gulf of Mexico. Today, all our assets are operated by Chevron, Tahiti, Jacques, Anchor, there's another Ballymore, and we consider they are a very good partner for us there. We had made last year a first deal about exploration. We increased it. By the way, some of the... It's not just acquiring some acreage, it's drilling, because we plan to first prospect together in 27. So for me, yes, it is part of the strategy. We like exploration, and honestly, our partnership with Chevron in the Gulf of Mexico is a good fit. And I think I recently had the opportunity to discuss that with Mike, and we both agree that we continue. And on the other side, by the way, you probably noticed that we have announced some GV in exploration with them recently. In Nigeria, for example, in Africa, so where we are strong. So we try to combine our strengths in, I would say, our foundation territories where we are good together. And as we are both considering the exploration as an engine for future growth, I think there is a good alignment between both companies. And so if we can do more, we'll continue to do more. So that's the idea. But the equation, again, is completely there. And you get skills.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Jean-Luc Romain for CIC CIB. Please go ahead.
Jean-Luc Romain
Analyst, CIC CIB
Thank you for taking my questions. It's about German flow wind. It looks like Germany is relaxing its stance over renegotiation of conditions to develop a courage there. You took large positions two years, three years ago, and I was wondering what your willingness is there.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, TotalEnergies
Okay, I mean, honestly, they are contradicting news from Germany about what they want to do, what they don't want to do. It is clear that today the merchant offshore wind in Germany is a challenge. To be honest, we are not the only one to explain that. Maybe we are optimistic, but it's a challenge because, in fact, customers are not completely... Because, first, the costs are higher. I would also say that the connections are longer. So the German government, which has a commitment to deliver some connections to the concession, does not fully fulfill its commitment. So that's a debate between our companies and the government. So we'll see what they mean. On our side, I think we are evaluating the situation. We have different concessions. We have some which have been acquired with a cheap price. on which we intend to continue to work. For the other ones, we'll have to evaluate the impact. At the end, the objective is to make, I would say, some affordable electricity for customers. So if it's not affordable, I don't know why we should invest. So that, I would say, is a condition of an investment by our side. By the way, you will notice in our accounts of the third quarter that you have made some write-offs on some of these concessions. Just to reflect the fact that today, on some of them, we don't see how we could monetize them in a profitable way for us and for the customers. It's not true for all the German concessions, so I will not be more explicit, but that's the way we consider this business. Thank you. Thank you to all of you. I think we are done. There are no more questions. So, in such case, I would like to thank you for listening. I know that you will all rush to the The call from a competitor, which is a good friend as well, so I wish you the best. And I think our next meeting will be in fact together in February in London, where we'll announce the results for the full year, the fourth quarter, and return to shareholders to meet the 40%. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.