UWMC UWM Holdings Corporation

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UWM Holdings Corporation Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

AI Conference Call Analysis

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Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
We've got a lot of questions from everybody, so we'll go through that process. Also, this time I think some live questions will be handled at the end. If you raise your hand and they'll open it up for you to ask a live question if I don't cover it prior to that. With that being said, thank you for joining. Overall, we feel like third quarter was a great quarter for UWM. The mortgage market, obviously, as you guys all understand, has a very tough backdrop for years now, five plus years. But we feel great about where we're at at UWM from a business perspective, operating, and obviously from a cash and capital perspective now as well. However, with all the great things going on, there's still a lot of headwinds in our industry. and we feel really good that we're not only prepared to handle but prepared to grow into them and do very well so overall the quarter was very good across the board 33.4 billion I'm not going to go through and read all the stuff you guys saw the release 33.4 billion of volume obviously very profitable for this quarter and we expect to continue to win the big thing that I know people talk about is expenses our expenses were down substantially But those are really just tied to the investments we've made in AI and technology over the last couple of years when everyone thought our expenses were higher. And so we're trying to see the fruits of the labor or the benefits of that as we have gone through it. And so we feel really good about the business. The operating business is very, very strong. It always has been strong. And obviously, recently, the partnership with Oak Tree has now substantiated our capital structure along with our liquidity. and we feel like we're in a really really strong position to not only continue to win in this market but be prepared for all markets better or worse going forward and we are ready for that and so we feel good about it and the one last comment is you know I think that The mortgage market is showing a lot of warts on a lot of different companies, a lot of different things. Everyone's got some issue, some hole. Our hole was solved with an opportunity with someone writing a check and with me and Oak Tree partnering to do that. and many more. We are able to solve that and now we're moving forward stronger than ever. With that being said, there's so many questions and so I'll try to answer a handful of them and I think a lot of them I can combine into the same question because I think a lot of people ask the same question maybe with different wording. So I'm going to try to read out the questions. and go through this. And then once again, by the way, we added some people and done some different things. If there's a different, you know, next quarter we might look at a little different format. If you guys like something different you don't like, please share with, you know, Blake Kolo and our team on what we can do better to make this format valuable to you guys, you know, next quarter and beyond. So we're looking at making some modifications, but we feel good about this and I'm looking forward to answering all these questions. So, all right, let's jump into it.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
First question I have here. Michael Goberman, Citizens, Jason Stewart, Jeff Patel, a significant amount of MSRs. So first off, you're speaking of the fourth quarter. First off, I don't really look at it as that significant amount. You know, I think for the year of 2026, we're going to have 7 million. So we're actually sold less than our production will be this year. So, not that significant, we just did a lot in the fourth quarter. But I do think it's a great opportunity for UWM. I'm big on de-risking, de-leveraging. It creates cash. and we'll look at it again for this quarter or next quarter or whenever the opportunity is there and so I do look at it but the thing about UWM is that is that big of a pool of loans to sell I know it is in the big scheme of things but for us we originally allow loans and we'll be able to replenish that right back in and still be opportunistic to de-risk and leverage the company at all times so All right, second question, Ryan Nash, Goldman. How are you thinking about the trajectory of expense growth into the fourth quarter? Can you approach $2.1 billion of costs in 2027 versus $2.3 billion run rate in the third quarter? I expect us to do that. We manage expenses, and as I talked about before, it's very important that we utilize AI and utilize some of the best, which was being down, whatever it was, 58, 59 million dollars. Thank you for joining us. and many more. Thank you for watching. We can do it and spread it over a lot of loans. And there aren't any other companies that can do it at that level. A couple others are closer to our size that can do that. But the truth is, most costs. So we feel good about our expenses. We feel good about our investments. And we continue to go forward. And 2.1 is a good target. I think that's a fair... Estimate whether we exactly hit it, plus or minus, we'll see, but I think that's the trend that seems right. One last comment, servicing expense is a big part of it as well. We'll continue this year, we kind of got double-hitted. We had an out-served... OutSourced and InSourced. And so we kind of had to double hit, so I think question. Most George, what leverage levels are you targeting? So I guess two is an important metric for us. Rameen Karbassio, and I think being in the 1.5 to 2 range is a strong spot and the low 1.5 is excellent and I feel great about where we're at on that and focusing about deleveraging and de-risking a little bit. Thank you for the question. Michael Goberman, Citizens, how did UWM generate more than $10 billion of refinance volume? Well, you know, we're the best and the contractors are the best for education in Michigan, Michigan, and America. We dominate on the purchase side, but also on the refinance side too. So a lot of people have this myth that you have to own all the servicing to do the refinances. Yeah, owning the servicing gives you a little better chance, but if you're the best at the country, what you do, brokers are going to be a quarter of the growers. We own 2% of the servicing, but we do 13% of the refinances, which means we're very efficient and we can handle things from a positive way. Thank you for watching. I'm actually the FHFA director and they just came out and are basically trying to mandate that people start using some of these title things that we've been doing for years. And so we've already had built-ups and it's a competitive advantage for our brokers. And so that does help us on the refinance market as well, whether it's the government or conventional loan. So we feel good about that. So refinance volume is very strong. I focus on the purchase business because refinance is going to go 4X with the opportunity that we'll continue to focus on purchases. Thank you for the question. Let's see. Jason Stewart, our technology and AI savings are sustainable. Yes, absolutely they're sustainable. The investments we make to help us save money, move things around in a positive way to help us cut costs, It's not only sustainable, but I think it's the beginning of where we're going. And when I say that, that is numbers and you've seen the results. There's going to be talking about it. You can see it. But let's put that aside. Also, growth, opportunity. How much is the AI going to help us do more loans? Help our brokers win more business? Help our brokers recruit more loan officers? How is AI going to transform the business? And those are some of the investors we've made. We've got the income calculator we built, and we've got some cool things. Chat at UWM has been really powerful. And so there's some really big AI initiatives that have really impacted the business, training and growth. And so AI can definitely help you cut costs and expenses, and you're seeing some of that benefit. But you have to make a massive investment in it to do that. And then you also got to see how you can get more loans, help you grow your business, drive the things we've done in the past and we're continuing to do right now. Thank you for the question on that as well. Let's see. Jeff Adelson, how are you responding to the defendant, one of your brokers, representing $12 billion from your potential value, from your perspective as holding market share pricing? So, first off... Thank you for watching. Thank you for watching. I guess you could say what they want to say. UWM's market share is fantastic. We're strong. We're dominant. And we're growing. And we're going to continue to grow. And it's so big. And it's going to continue to grow. But that's my focus. My focus is growing the brokerage channel, helping every loan officer do a little bit more loans, helping every real estate agent that works in the brokerage do more business, helping them all win. And that's how we're going to win. and on the last note on that is, I mean, I just get declined. I get declined. Like, all these people are moving over with UWM, so I think it's just kind of, it's silliness to see those questions, not in general, because they're just trying to be the broker channel, which is great, because the broker channel is growing, and it will continue to grow, and we're going to continue to focus on it. I'm going to do one more, and let's just open up an overall app. Let's do this one. This one's Jeff Adelson. A couple of people are saying, can you give an update? So let me answer that question for you. You know, we brought in 700,000 loans. and many more. Thank you for watching. Thank you for watching. And that's a win-win-win. With that being said, let's see, do we have some questions? We have no questions right now. I'm happy to take any live questions. If not, I can try to see if there's anything else in any of my papers to reach me in. Raise your hand once again if you have a question. We'll try to call on you and then we'll open it up for you. So if you want to go ahead and open it up. Wait, I had a question on MSR aging, so you guys... I do not hear you. Can you hear me? Can you unmute both? Okay.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Well, I can't hear your question, folks. I'm sorry.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Well, yeah, if we can't get a question. Can you hear me? I want you to give us an update on the timing of the fourth quarter MSR sales. How much of those are completed? Great.
Terry Ma
Equity Research Analyst
Just update on the timing of when those sales are completed and how those sales compared to your current marks.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, so MSR sales and how we look at that is, you know, in the current marks, we look at a lot of different things from a perspective of when we sell MSRs or whether we're not going to sell MSRs.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
The current marks in our MSR book, we feel are pretty good and strong. That doesn't mean that sometimes we'll make a little money, sometimes we'll lose a little bit of money on some of these deals. So we don't really focus on it too much. Jeff Ellison Hey guys, Terry, what's up?
Terry Ma
Equity Research Analyst
Thanks for taking my question. Just maybe wanted to ask about the planning that into the $400 billion range as you complete the in-house transition and hold more servicing. Just with the near-term sale, I know you talked about the timeline to get $400 billion from here and the strategic vision around the service. Thanks. Thank you for joining us.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
We don't really look at it like the strategy has not shifted at all, if that's the question. The strategy has not shifted, and I feel really good about where we're at from capability. And now we're not having external sources, Mr. Cooper being involved with it at all. We have a lot more control over the process. And so we will continue to grow services because we do a lot of changes. and bringing in a lot of cash. I think that's a positive, which then puts our debt holders, our equity holders, everyone in a better position across the board. And so we will look at both those things. It's not a shift in my strategy, as we've always been. Boze. You guys had the NMSR, I guess, the hedge on this quarter. I'm just curious, going forward, do you plan to have a hedge on the servicing, or are you going to go back to what you used to do to just leave the asset on the hedge? Sure. Yeah, so, good question. So, in general, I think you saw how we hired Chief Ambassador Andy Farge, who's done a great job. He's years of experience, 20-plus. I mean, he's excellent, highest level now, in conjunction with our CFO, Rami Hasani, and we're figuring all that stuff out. The way we look at it is... Thank you for joining us. Before we had the issue, we were over-hedged. We're partnering with our Oak Tree partners on that as well. So we feel really good about the process and how we're hedging and how much to hedge versus how much not to hedge. And we'll continue to make that evaluation on a quarterly basis. We met with the board yesterday about it. And so if you have any last MSRs, For the last sale, there's obviously less of a hedge that's needed. And obviously, you'll have the MSR right now, if that's the right way, but you'll do, you know, make $500 million in the core run of the business. So it will all bounce out. But I think the hedge, the natural hedge is the best way to do it. And we're not back to how we're handling it right now. And I feel great about the people Thank you for watching. All right, McHale Goldman.
Ryan Nash
Equity Research Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Yeah, thanks, guys. Just a question on expectations for what you guys are seeing in terms of volumes and margins in the fourth quarter this far and expectations going into 2027. Thanks. Fourth quarter?
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, so I think the mortgage market's got a lot of headwinds right now. So I think that people have to realize that. But I also think, based on where we're at, we're in the best position to take advantage of it, take advantage of the opportunity from a rate perspective, take advantage of the opportunity, like we talked about MSRs a bunch on this call, and also from the AI and expense perspective. And so the volume numbers are definitely not going to be higher than they've been, right? If you think about the mortgage market, I think I looked at something that showed that the 10-year... Adam Wolfe, Jeff Midbo, But, you know, it's not going to be, I don't, I wouldn't project, you know, us doing 40, 50, 60 billion this quarter. Like, I think it's definitely going to be different in the fourth quarter. And the mortgage market's always traditionally fourth quarter, first quarter, always the tougher time. But, once again, last comment is expenses are down, AI is winning, brokers are growing.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
We feel like we're in the best position of anybody to capitalize on an opportunity. Is there any other questions? Right now.
Daniel Alvarez
Equity Research Analyst
Hey Matt, so just picking up on the back of what you just said, you know, obviously it's not a great environment for the mortgage market. Assuming things don't change from a rate perspective, can you just lay out a more cohesive plan on MSR production and how would you define success in your plan on managing it? Thank you.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you for the question. And so I would say in general on the Oak Tree Partnership is, you know, we understand the mortgage market's headwinds, as I've told you already, are out there.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
And I think, as I mentioned at the very beginning, I think every mortgage lender out there, and so... Our whole, we've been able to solve for with the capital vote, me and myself, and obviously we're putting more here now with the rights to offering or myself again. So I feel like capital-wise, how and when do we pay it off? Obviously, the plan is expensive money, so how do we pay it off more efficiently? Thank you for joining us. and many more. Thank you for watching. I think we've got one more. Jeff Adelson is asking a question.
Terry Ma
Equity Research Analyst
Hey, just to maybe follow up on that question on the near term for volume. Just curious what your higher end of that 115 to 130 range you talked about. Is there an opportunity to stay at the higher end or even grow that?
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, good question. Again, on sale. Yeah. I think, you know, we're consistent. You know, people don't want to use the lowest rates.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
The only way other competitors, if you see our competitors, wholesale margins, the only way they can compete is by having the lowest rate. That's the only way they have a chance. They still can't get the business because they're not a great partner. They don't do all the things. And so for us, gain on sale, I think, I expect to be steady in the fourth quarter in the ranges that you described. And with that being said, I think other people will continue to try to buy the business, lower the rates as much as possible to try to get their nose in there, try to be competitive. But the reality is if lowest rate was the only thing that won business in the wholesale channel, There'd be one winner, which is, I think, Provident Funding, who I don't think anyone really knows who they are, but they have the lowest rates. That's not how it works, right? And so you have to have a better understanding of the overall business, not you, I'm saying, our competitors. And so you have to understand that. So I feel like we're in a great, great position from a gain-on-sale perspective, a volume perspective, and whether the rates are getting sales slightly higher or slightly lower than your range, but I definitely see it in that range. It's not going back to, you know, 60% or 70%. Like some of our competitors are at trying to win loans and stay afloat. Okay, sorry, there's two questions left.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Laura? Laura? Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for taking the call. I'm wondering if you could speak a little bit about the planned levering with the proceeds from the MSR sale in Fort Kew and help us think about kind of what specific instruments United is thinking about the cost capital of all that. Thank you for watching.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Rami Hasani, Laura Lawson, Melinda Wilner, You know, you know, to save money on the interest expense, whether you can't buy the oak tree stuff back. So that's already locked in for two years. So what's the next best use of capital? And that's how we're allocating it. But with one comment I'll say is cash is king. And so I will pay down stuff and we will do things. But having access to liquidity and the massive, massive amount of cash that we have right now at UWM. is a huge competitive advantage, especially in this market. So we're very conscientious, but we will use it to save some money on the interest expense and use it strategically.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Daniel Alvarez, last question. Thank you.
Daniel Alvarez
Equity Research Analyst
Yes, thank you for taking my call. I understand the warrant situation, but I'm wondering if you guys would consider buying back some common shares in the future to reduce the increased dilution. That's a good question.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
So it's definitely back to the last question. It's definitely common shares.
Mat Ishbia
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
The common shares, is that an opportunity? So we've discussed that at the board level, and we always balance, and I know you guys know this because we've been doing this for years together, balancing the float versus the actual buying back shares and how we do that. Everyone wants to get more float out, and then we potentially buy back at such low prices, and there's always those opportunities. And so we're looking at all things, I'll say that. The right way of thinking of it is we're looking at all ways to utilize the The access cash that we have coming in from the rights offering slash preferred slash junior preferred from the MSR sales. How do we use that capital and liquidity the best way to optimize our business? Some of those things are investments in AI. Some of those things are paying down debt. Some of those things. So we're looking at all those things across the board. And definitely the one you brought up is definitely on the table as a discussion point. so with that hopefully the format was good give us feedback on how to make it better which we're going to make some changes next quarter but the most important thing is I thank you for taking the time and your interest in UWM hopefully you get some value and understand how our business is going we feel great about where we're at and where we're going. And like I said before, I think our business is the best position possible in this market from a liquidity, capital perspective and a growth perspective with AI and the investments we've made. So thank you for your time. Look forward to talking to you guys all again next quarter. Have a great day.