VTRS Viatris Inc.

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Viatris Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Conference Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to the Vietris Q3 2026 earnings call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star and then one on your touch-tone phones. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. Please also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Bill Szablewski, Head of Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Bill Szablewski
Head of Capital Markets
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Q3 2026 earnings call. With us today is our CEO, Scott Smith, Interim CFO, Paul Campbell, Chief R&D Officer, Philippe Martin, and Chief Commercial Officer, Corinne Le Goff. During today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements on a number of matters, including our financial guidance for 2026 and various strategic initiatives. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainties. We will also be referring to certain actual and projected non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to today's slide presentation and our SEC filings for more information. including reconciliations of those non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. When discussing 2026 actual or reported results, we will be making certain comparisons to 2025 actual or reported results on an operational basis, which excludes the impact of foreign currency rates. When comparing our 2026 actual reported results to our expectations, We are making comparisons to our 2026 financial guidance. With that, I'll hand the call over to our CEO, Scott Smith.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, everyone. We're pleased with our strong third quarter performance, which reflects continued momentum across our businesses. As we've been saying, we believe we've entered a new phase of sustained growth for Beatrice. The disciplined execution of the strategy we outlined earlier this year is translating into results. During the third quarter, we delivered total revenues of $3.75 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, and adjusted EPS of 71 cents per share. Through the first nine months of the year, total revenues grew 2%, adjusted EBITDA grew 6%, and adjusted EPS grew 8% operationally compared to the prior year, demonstrating continued progress towards our long-term financial targets. Given our performance and expectations for continued momentum in the fourth quarter, we are narrowing our financial guidance ranges and once again raising the midpoint for all key financial metrics. Paul will provide more details shortly. Now let me walk through a few highlights for the quarter. Our base business continues to deliver solid results reflecting the strength and durability of our portfolio. We're pleased with our performance in North America and greater China, where we continue to see meaningful growth. In North America, growth is accelerating as our portfolio mix shifts towards more durable, higher-margin products and complex generics, supported by strong demand for our estradiol patches and new product revenue from our recent injectable launches. We are pleased to have launched Winlow, our low-dose contraceptive patch, in the US in October. In Greater China, growth continues to be driven by strong demand for our cardiovascular portfolio and the strength of our established brands. Regarding our pipeline, we continue to make meaningful progress in advancing our innovative medicines portfolio and positioning the business for long-term growth. In Japan, we received regulatory approval for Wakex, which we expect to be an important product launch and a key contributor to the country's strategy to return to growth. In the U.S., we received approval for ResumeV for the treatment of presbyopia. and we continue to advance our preparations for the potential approval and launch of Fast-Acting Meloxicam. As a reminder, the PDUFA date for Fast-Acting Meloxicam is December 27th and if approved, we expect to launch early in 2027. In addition, we are approaching the phase three readouts for Slatagrel and Sneramod representing significant milestones for Innovative Medicine's portfolio. Both products have blockbuster potential and could become important growth drivers for us in the next decade. Philippe will provide additional details on these programs and the pipeline shortly. Finally, I'd like to take a moment to discuss our recently announced agreement to acquire Pacera Biosciences and the strategic opportunities we believe this transaction will create for Beatrice. I'm excited about the potential of the Pacera business. I believe this acquisition represents a significant step forward for Beatrice and is a strong example of the business development strategy we are executing to support our long-term growth. More specifically, the transaction would add two established patent-protected medicines in the U.S., Expirel and Zolretta, further strengthening our U.S. promoter brands business with durable revenue and margins well above our company average. With the addition of Paceris products, we expect our U.S. innovative medicines business to generate more than a billion dollars in total revenue in 2027. We're also exploring potential opportunities to leverage our global infrastructure to develop and commercialize Pacera's products in selected markets outside of the U.S. Additionally, Pacera would bring an experienced U.S. team and established capabilities across sales, marketing, market access, medical affairs, and global R&D that complement our existing infrastructure. We believe these capabilities could help us maximize The potential of Fast Acting Block Scam and position Beatrice to become a leader in non-opioid pain management. Before I turn it over to Philippe, I want to recognize a recent leadership transition. After more than 30 years with Beatrice and our legacy companies, Peter McCormick retired as our Chief Supply Officer on November 1st. I want to personally thank Peter for his tremendous contribution and years of dedicated leadership. With Peter's transition, I'm very pleased to welcome Paul Duffy as our new Chief Supply Officer. Paul brings 35 years of industry experience across global supply chain management, manufacturing, strategy, and business transformation. I'm looking forward to working very closely with him. With that, I'll turn it over to Philippe. Philippe?
Philippe Martin
Chief Research & Development Officer
Thank you, Scott. We continue to execute with discipline across our pipeline and remain on track to deliver against our R&D priorities. Starting with our value-added medicines, the FDA review of our fast-acting meloxicam NDA is substantially complete, with FDA being very engaged with us throughout the review process. We are on track to start labeling negotiations this month ahead of an anticipated regulatory decision by our PLUFA goal date of December 27. We continue to view fast-acting meloxicam as a potentially meaningful addition to the acute pain treatment landscape given its rapid absorption profile, clinically meaningful pain relief, and demonstrated reduction in opioid use. Over the past two years, we've been working on bringing additional benefits to patients through lifecycle management opportunities, including label expansions or additional indications. To this end, we recently secured on-time approval for the presbyopia indication for ResumV in the U.S. We also submitted a type 2 variation application in Europe for Creon to expand its approved dosing range for non-cystic fibrosis indications, which represents a significant opportunity to expand the value of these important products for patients. We anticipate a regulatory decision in the first half of 2027. Regarding our women's health portfolio, we continue to leverage our transdermal capabilities to address important unmet needs. We have received approval and launched GreenLow in the U.S. We continue to advance our next patch candidate, an oral gestramine-only weekly patch, for which we have completed Phase III enrollment and anticipate the data readout in the first half of 2027. In Japan, our NIFICON program for patients with IgA nephropathy continues to advance as planned, following the positive Phase III results announced earlier this year. We remain on track to submit our JNDA by the end of this year with a regulatory decision anticipated in the second half of 2027. Turning to our innovative pipeline, ScenariMark continues to progress well with both Phase III SLE studies, Opus 1 and Opus 2, advancing as planned. We remain on track to report results in the first half of 2027. In addition, the Phase III LUMEO study in lupus nephritis is actively enrolling patients. For Ciladogrel, enrollment in our SOSMI Phase III studies continues to track well. We continue to expect a data readout around the first half of 2027, keeping in mind the event-driven design of the study. Turning to our generic pipeline, where our execution remains strong. We are on track to secure over 100 new product approvals this year, reflecting the strength and breadth of our development and regulatory capabilities. Importantly, we are preparing to launch our once-monthly aripiprazole injection in the U.S., for which we were the first to secure final FDA approval. In addition, we have secured first-to-file status for Wegovy or semaglutide 25mg tablets, further strengthening our pipeline of generic GLP-1s. Lastly, with the announced acquisition of Pacera, we see an opportunity to bolster our global R&D platform with new talent, capabilities, and programs. There are several pipelines programs of interest for which there are upcoming readouts, including the Phase II Part A readout for the osteoarthritis gene therapy asset PCRx201. We will make sure to keep you updated on the status of this program following deal close. Overall, we expect a strong finish to the year and believe we are well positioned heading into 2027 with several important regulatory and clinical milestones across our innovative, value-added, and generic pipeline. With that, I'll turn the call over to Paul.
Paul Campbell
Interim Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Philippe, and good morning, everyone. As a quick summary, we deliver another strong quarter of performance, driven primarily by continued growth in our higher margin, greater China and North American businesses, which offset ongoing supply constraints affecting lower margin generics performance in Europe and emerging markets. While the overall impact on total revenues was neutral, adjusted EBITDA benefited from the higher net margins. Today, I will review the key drivers of our third quarter performance, discuss our updated financial outlook for the remainder of the year, and highlight some expected benefits associated with our proposed acquisition of CIRA Biosciences. Beginning with our third quarter results, total revenues were $3.75 billion in line with expectations. This performance reflects the continued strength of our global-based business, the breadth of our diversified portfolio, and disciplined execution. More specifically, Greater China continues to benefit from favorable macroeconomic and demographic trends, strong demand from our leading portfolio of established brands, and continued execution from our commercial organizations. During the quarter, greater China net sales grew approximately 10% versus the prior year, driven by growth across all channels, including continued uptake in the e-commerce channel. Also, as anticipated, the policy changes we discussed last quarter began to moderate our growth, particularly in the hospital channel. As such, net sales were in line with our expectations for the quarter. In North America, we are really encouraged by the growth of our U.S. business. Growing our business in the U.S. remains a strategic priority and is expected to be an important driver of our future growth and success. Throughout the year, we have continued to capitalize on favorable market dynamics across certain key products. In the third quarter, North American net sales exceeded our expectations and grew approximately 7% versus the prior year. driven primarily by growth of higher margin complex generics, including estradiol patch products. In fact, these drivers represented over 65% of our North American generics net sales for the quarter, reflecting our continued shift away from commodity generics. Specifically related to our estradiol patch products, net sales in the quarter for North America exceeded our expectations with volumes approximately double compared to the prior year period. We have actively expanded capacity through operational enhancements and expect to continue to make additional capital investments across our manufacturing and packaging operations for future expansion. These actions will position us to better serve increasing patient demand. Within Europe and emerging markets, performance was impacted by continued supply constraints. primarily related to remediation activities at our NOSHIC facility. The total revenue impact of those supply constraints was approximately $100 million in the third quarter. Specific to an update on NOSHIC, in September, the company received notice from the FDA that the plant was being classified as official action indicated or OAI following the issuance of 483 observations in May. In October, out of an abundance of caution, We suspended manufacturing at the facility where remediation activities are ongoing. It is important to note that underlying demand trends across both regions generally remain healthy. This is demonstrated by growth in key European markets such as Italy and Spain, as well as continued strength in our established brands portfolio in emerging markets. Within JANs, net sales exceeded our expectations but declined versus the prior year. reflecting the impact from government price regulations, which more than offset the positive contribution from the launch of Effexor for generalized anxiety disorder. We are encouraged by the early uptake of Effexor and continue to believe this launch, combined with the continued uptake of Spidea and the expected launch of Wakex, positions Japan for a return to growth in the future. Turning to the remainder of the P&L, adjusted gross margins came in above our expectations at 58%, driven by the growth in Greater China and North America. Operating expenses were in line with expectations and declined slightly as a percentage of total revenues compared with the prior year, reflecting continued spending discipline and the benefits from our enterprise-wide strategic review. We remain on track to achieve $120 million of net savings from the strategic review this year. Collectively, these factors contributed to improved operating leverage across our businesses. Now turning to cash flow. Free cash flow was $814 million during the quarter, inclusive of transaction and restructuring related costs and taxes exceeding our expectations. Excluding these items, free cash flow would have been $895 million. Through the first three quarters, we returned approximately $717 million of capital to shareholders through $300 million of share purchases and the remainder coming from the quarterly dividends. And lastly, we exited the quarter in a strong gross leverage position at approximately 2.9 times which is below the midpoint of our long-term target of 2.8 to 3.2 times. Now, let me provide a full-year financial guidance update. Based on strong performance year-to-date and our confidence in the continued momentum of the business, we are raising our 2026 financial guidance across all key metrics. It is important to note that this updated guidance excludes any contributions from the proposed acquisition of Becerra. At the midpoint of our revised guidance ranges, we now expect operational growth of approximately 2% for total revenues, 6% for adjusted EBITDA, and 8% for adjusted EPS versus the prior year. Our outlook reflects a balanced view of fourth quarter dynamics as we currently see them, including continuing strength in the U.S., including new product revenue led by octreotide, and increasing supply for our estradiol patch products, Partially offset by additional competition on certain key products. Continuing growth in Greater China, but moderated by the implementation of the hospital-focused procurement policy. Continuing supply disruptions expected to impact Europe and emerging markets. Total revenues by approximately $100 million in the fourth quarter. And increasing investments to support future growth. As we approach year end, we remain confident in our expectation to continue growing are globally diversified business into 2027. Lastly, I want to spend a few minutes discussing Pacira. The tender offer was launched on October 30th, and we expect the transaction to close before the end of November. We expect the impact of the transaction to be immediately creative to all financial guidance metrics in 2027 versus our expected 2026 results. Also, the transaction is expected to be funded from excess cash and short-term borrowings from existing credit facilities. As such, we expect the transaction to have a minimal impact on our gross leverage ratio. In addition, we are enthusiastic about the CIRA's ability to accelerate our innovative medicine strategy, and we see the following additional potential benefits of the transaction. Expected growth across total revenues and adjusted EBITDA meaningfully contributes towards achievement of our stated long-term growth targets. By combining both businesses, we currently expect to realize more than $50 million in annual cost synergies by the end of 2028, with the potential for additional savings as we fully integrate the business. Ability to leverage Becerra's commercial capabilities, expertise, and acute non-opioid pain management to maximize the potential of fast-acting meloxicam. Ability to leverage our proven expertise across intellectual property and extend product life cycles to maximize the long-term value of the Becerra portfolio and strengthening our cash flow generation credit profile and preserving financial flexibility. In closing, we remain focused on executing on our strategy to accelerate growth, generate strong cash flow, maintain a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation, and deliver long-term value for patients, customers, and shareholders. With that, I'll hand it back to the operator to begin Q&A.
Conference Operator
Operator
At this time, we'll begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star and then one on your touch-tone phones. If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please pick up the handset before pressing the keys to ensure the best sound quality. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. Again, that is star and then one. To join the question queue, we'll pause momentarily to assemble the roster. Our first question today comes from Les Szlewski from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead with your question.
Les Szlewski
Analyst, Oppenheimer
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions, and congrats on the progress. So first, you previously noted hospital procurement changes would moderate China growth, but with 10% in 3Q, is the policy impact smaller or is it being offset by stronger demand? And as a follow-up, how much of the updated guidance comes from puts and takes around the performance specifically in China versus the rest of the portfolio, and how's your outlook for ex-China changed?
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, so first of all, good morning, Les. Thank you for the questions. China specific, we're very, very pleased with the progress that we're making in China with the investments that we've made. You know, we see some policy implementation in China, but we still see very, very good momentum as we go through the year. We expect that to continue as we get into 27 and beyond. I think we're kind of uniquely well-positioned given the brands that we have, the investments that we've made in certain channels in China, and the overall dynamics and the quality of the affiliate that we have in China. I think we're very well-positioned to finish the year strong and move into 27 with some good momentum. I'll turn it over to Paul to get more specific on some of the questions he answered.
Paul Campbell
Interim Chief Financial Officer
Okay, thanks, Scott. Hey, Les. So just to add to what Scott said, The impact for the quarter was in line with our expectations. I think back in the second quarter, we had talked about the moderating growth. First half of the year, our growth was 16%, 17%. In the third quarter, it was 10% year over year. So it did moderate to a level that we expected. We currently are seeing some variability in the level of readiness and enforcement of the policy across provinces. which is really preventing us from being precise on what we think the impact is. But as we look into Q4, consistent with what we said last quarter, we expect Q4 to be a higher impact than Q3 as other provinces come online. So the way I'm thinking about it is the growth will continue to come down, I believe, below the 10% that we had in Q3, but still very, very healthy in Q4. More importantly, as we exit the year and go into 27, we still see growth coming from China next year, albeit closer to the historical averages we've had, more in the low to mid single digit range, but very excited about that business.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
Did I miss anything? No, I think unless you asked a little bit about ex-China, and just one thing I'd like to point out is the mixed evolution that we're seeing in the United States. Moving towards more complex, higher margin products. By the time we get to the end of the year, we will have eight complex injectables approved, two respiratory medicines, three HRT transdermals. And so we're really working hard to evolve the portfolio in the U.S. towards higher margin, higher growth, stickier revenue, complex generics. So we're also very pleased with how we're tracking there.
Conference Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Glenn Santangelo from Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.
Glenn Santangelo
Analyst, Barclays
Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Hey, Scott, maybe I can just follow up on Les' question a little bit. I wanted to zoom out and just sort of look at the growth so far year to date. I think now you're, you know, with the guidance raise, you're sort of calling for, you know, 2% revenue growth. And if you go back to your analyst day back in March, I think you were sort of comfortable at the time with that 2% to 3%. you know sort of base business growth and you know when you look at the year certainly some things played out you know maybe better than you would have expected like China maybe some of the value-added launches you know clearly on the women's health side you know but you also had the facility fire maybe on on the negative side could you just maybe just give us a little bit of a post-mortem you know on this year and and some of those bigger highlights and and what went better and maybe more importantly what didn't play out like you thought as we as we think about the exit rate here in 26 heading into 2027. I know you don't want to give guidance, but I'm just kind of curious if you feel better about your base business today, you know, heading into the new year. And then my second question was, Philippe, and I apologize if I missed this in your prepared remarks, but I just wanted to make sure I'm clear on the timing of the readouts for Saladagrill and Saneramod in 27 and any high-level expectations you might have there. Thanks, and I'll stop there.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Glenn. I'll say a couple comments, kick it over to Paul and then to Philippe to answer your questions. You know, we're very, very pleased with the momentum that we have so far this year. You take a look at the first nine months of the year, 2% revenue growth, just a little bit above that as we talked about, 6% EBITDA growth, 8% EPS growth relative to prior year. So we're very, very pleased with the progress that we're making towards the goals that we put out earlier this year. Also, when you add Pesera, and hopefully we'll get that acquisition closed, and you take a look at 27th, Our U.S. innovative medicines business will be over a billion dollars in 27 likely. And so we're very, very pleased with the progress we're making on the base business overall, adding some interesting innovative components in the U.S., seeing good progress in China, a lot of launches in Japan. I think overall we're very pleased with the momentum we've got in 26 and where we're heading company-wide and with the portfolio in particular as we move in 27. Paul? Yeah, thanks, Scott.
Paul Campbell
Interim Chief Financial Officer
And thanks for the question, Glenn. If I go back to the beginning of the year, you know, when you look at our original guidance, we had guided to about a 3% increase on an operational basis. And the first half of the year, we outperformed that, right? But we had guided in the second quarter that we were going to have the headwinds specifically related to the supply issues we were having primarily in Nashek. If I think about where we were just from a regional or a country-specific place at the beginning of the year, we thought North America would be flat, Europe would be up 4%, emerging markets up 6%, and Jans down 7%, and Greater China up 3%. That was the guidance we provided. With the midpoints of our updated guidance, we're now seeing, because of some of the strengths that Scott's really focused on, North America we expect to be More in the high single-digit range. We see Europe coming in flattish, primarily related to the supply, but there are some other dynamics in the business competition we had talked about on some of our products that are also putting pressure there. Merging markets and Jans are going to be low single-digit declines now. Again, merging markets would be supply-related. In Greater China, we're looking at coming in closer to you know kind of the low double digit range as the moderation hits Q4 but with the strength of you know the first half we see so as we look forward to 27 and I want to really emphasize what Scott's been saying you know we are very encouraged and very confident in the business as we look into 27 you know we're hoping to continue the growth in North America You know, we haven't talked a lot about the estradiol patch products, but we do see continuing demand there where, you know, as that grows into 27, there's a mix, a positive mix impact to adjusted EBITDA. China, as I mentioned before, we expect some growth to continue there, although back to historical levels. And, you know, and then obviously the Pacira business will come online. We also have, you know, exciting product launches for next year. You know, Gwent Low we've launched and it just launched in October, just started. And we're hoping to get, you know, our approval for fast-acting meloxicam and have that on the market next year. So a lot of great momentum as we go into 27. The one item I would just point out to keep in mind that we're keeping an eye on is we do have some loss of exclusivities next year. Particularly Ameteza, we expect or there's a potential to lose that mid-year in Japan. And then Isosulfan Blue is another good product in the U.S. that lost LOE this year. We're going to have a full year impact next year. So there are a few, you know, kind of headwinds there. But, you know, I think that, I mean, the tailwinds certainly are in our favor overall. Thank you. And Philippe, the Saladagrown Scenarimon?
Philippe Martin
Chief Research & Development Officer
Yeah, so Celadogrel and Scenarimod are continuing to perform the studies performance plan as expected. We're going to get the results for Scenarimod first. It will be in the first half of 27 followed by Celadogrel, also expected in the first half of 2027. It's an event-driven study, so the precision there is less than for Scenarimod, but based on what we're seeing today, That's our expectation to get that data around the first half of 2027. So studies are performing as expected. Nothing to point out that is not going in the right direction at this point. And so we look forward to seeing those results early next year.
Conference Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Ash Verma from UBS. Please go ahead with your question.
Ash Verma
Analyst, UBS
Oh, hey, great. Thanks for taking our question and congrats on the procedure deal that you're going to close soon. Maybe just on the expat genetic entry in 2030. So I wanted to get your thoughts on the potential entry of Fresenius genetic. There was a settlement for this for limited volume in 2025. Since then, the patent estate has expanded, plus Prasita talked about this Markman hearing and trial coming up. So just help us understand if this product can have a durable growth beyond 2030. And then secondly, I wanted to ask about women's patches. It seems like pretty significant growth year over year, and we're seeing roughly 700 to 800 million in gross sales annualized run rate in IQVIA. How much of net sales are you generating? And it seems like a pretty big category, and you are the leader in this space. Just how big can it get from here for you? Thank you.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, so thank you very much. I'll kick it over to Paul to talk a little bit about the cadence of genericization and exclusivity that we're thinking around XBRL. And I can come back to you and talk a little bit about the transdermal market and the evolution that we've seen there.
Paul Campbell
Interim Chief Financial Officer
Sure, thanks. So as far as Paceira goes, you know, we obviously did our diligence with the company. And I would say, number one, you know, from now till 2030, we do expect continued growth in XBRL until the volume limited generic entry in 30. You know, we also believe that, you know, one of the benefits of the transaction was bringing our proven ability to extend product life cycles and sustain meaningful sales You know, after generic entry. So we're hoping to maximize the long term value of XBRL post 2030. And I also think it's important, you know, I think that the series talked about this since the original settlement that they entered into, there has been a lot of work done around the IP for that product and additional patents that are out there, etc. And so we're very encouraged by that. And, you know, we'll obviously work once we take over the company to defend that position vigorously.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, and relative to the HRT market, the transdermal market, we've seen sort of over the last 12 to 18 months an unexpected increase in demand for those products based on a removal of black box warning on HRT. Also, the utilization of GLP-1 products increasing overall. The delayed gastric emptying making transdermal products much more favorable. in the marketplace. And I think one of the things we've done is work really hard to try and meet that demand. I've been to the plant personally. Everybody here in this room has been to the plant some multiple times. We're trying to look for solutions. We've moved from 24-5 to 24-7 utilization of that plant. We're adding a packaging line. We're looking for geographic expansion outside of Vermont to other sites to be able to meet the demand. So we see an incredible demand. We've got market-leading products in this area. and we're doing everything we can to increase our supply to help meet that demand overall. I don't know, Corinne, did you want to make a comment?
Corinne Le Goff
Chief Commercial Officer
I was also at the plant last week and it's extraordinary to see the technicity of this plant and we've been producing patches for decades and we are really one of the leaders in this area. But first I want to add on the market itself, We see that the demand for estradiol patches will continue to increase into the foreseeable future. Just to give you an idea of how this market is developing, we have in the U.S. an estimated number of 45 million women that are asymptomatic with menopausal symptoms, but only, I would say, less than 30% of them are actually treated with HRT therapy. So there is a very large untapped market and as part of our market research that we conducted with clinicians, we are seeing a very strong willingness to continue to treat these stations as the FDA, as Scott mentioned, has eliminated the black box warning for these products. So we are very optimistic on the outlook.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
And we'll continue to invest. We see this as being an important growth driver for the company between now and 2030 at least. And so we're going to take advantage of this increasing demand, make the right investments and continue to be a leader in the space.
Conference Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Umar Rufoft from Evercore. Please go ahead with your question.
Umer Raffat
Analyst, Evercore
Hi, guys. Thank you. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to touch up on two topics, if I may. First, there's obviously a lot of momentum in the base business off of several markets that are accelerating in U.S. as well as the broader business. When I add that ongoing momentum into 2027 and layer onto it some of the EBITDA synergies off of this era as well, is there a possibility that a 5 billion EBITDA is within reach for as early as 2027, not 2030, which is sort of where estimates currently stand? As I think about the upcoming readout for CNERMOD in lupus setting, I just wanted to check two things. One, the potential for pooled analysis in interferon-high signature group, is that pre-specified or is that something you're going to have to discuss with FDA? I only ask because once it's been unblinded, it may not be as easy to do. And also, what constitutes interferon-high signature? because I remember the phase two post-hoc used, I think, four or five genes in the signature, whereas a lot of the other companies have used a three signature panel. So have you specified what that interferon hygiene signature definition comprises? Thank you.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
So thank you very much for the questions. Good morning. First of all, from an EBITDA perspective, you know, if you take a look at the momentum in the business and Pacera and other things, we're not going to guide 27 here. at all. But what you're talking about, the numbers you're talking about are certainly in the ballpark of where we may be going. I think we're making tremendous progress relative to those 2030 targets, and hopefully we'll be able to hit them well ahead of time. So again, your thinking is in the ballpark, I think, here. We don't want to guide 27 until we get through the year, obviously, and look at all the puts and takes and what's going on in the year. But You know, given the momentum and given CACERA and given some of those things going on, I think you're in the relative neighborhood. Philippe?
Philippe Martin
Chief Research & Development Officer
Yeah, so two questions on scenario mode. So yes, the pooled analysis is pre-specified as part of the SAP. Again, there's a number of endpoints that are of particular relevance for this pooling strategy, in particular around opioid steroid sparing. where pulling the two studies together may give us enough of a sample size to be fully powered for the analysis. But all endpoints will be looked at as each individual study but also as pool study. As you pointed out, these two studies are identical and can be pulled together. In terms of the interferon 1 high, I think there are different techniques to look at and classify interferon 1. They all lead to the same results, however. And so whether you pull two, three, four different type of genes together, when we look at retrospectively, when we look at the data, it leads to the same results of who's interferon 1 high versus who's not. So those techniques do not make a difference. At the end of the day, we used the phase 2 B care data to determine the cutoff. Clearly, there's a separation between interferon 1 high and interferon 1 low patient based on that cutoff. So we do not anticipate to miss and many patients that would be interferon 1 low but potentially responders. So the short answer is that no matter how you look, no matter which technique you use to determine interferon 1 high, it leads to similar results.
Conference Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Matt Delator from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.
Tommy
Analyst, Goldman Sachs (on behalf of Matt Delatorre)
Thanks for taking our question. This is Tommy on for Matt. Just a couple on the upcoming pain launch. Maybe could you speak to how hospital purchasing dynamics and ambulatory surgical centers are evolving under the No Pain Act? Are there any clear volume shifts towards non-opioid protocols and how would this impact your pricing and launch strategy? Thank you.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
Good. So thank you for the question. I'll turn it over to Corinne for more detailed response.
Corinne Le Goff
Chief Commercial Officer
Right. So thank you very much for your question. For fat-sucking meloxicam, of course, we fight for no pain. I think what's important to note here is that no pain has an impact and is very beneficial for inpatient hospital patients. But our strategy with fat-sucking meloxicam is to really focus on the outpatient setting, more of the retail settings. Of course, we're going to focus on Post-operative pain, but mostly in the outpatient setting, as well as non-operative pain. Now, no pain is important, and we are focused on this as well.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
And relative to your question on pricing, we're obviously exploring a bunch of different pricing models, looking at a number of different pricing points, matching them up with strategy to get early penetration to the marketplace. We don't make any final pricing decisions until we understand the fullness of the label and all the specifics around the label. We're working on that. We're not in a position to get too specific until we see final label and make some final decisions on that case.
Conference Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Jason Gerberry from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.
Jason Gerberry
Analyst, Bank of America
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Follow up on Ash's question, slightly different variant of it. Pacira in the past had talked about the manufacturing barriers to XBRL. I'm wondering if that's part of the thought process here, that there could be an upside that the generic suppliers may struggle to be able to make this. I assume that this is something that you guys looked at on the ANDA side of your business for a while. So just curious if you could comment on that. And then my second question on Saladagrel is a commercial one, which is, As we think about how you model the EpiPen business and how patients stockpile a rescue option there, how are you modeling the rescue carry rates for something like AMI? I know in the past you've talked about I think 20% of heart attack survivors have another event, but that could vary a year to five years later. I'm just wondering how you model that and thinking about the importance of high-risk subgroups when we ultimately get detailed data, how that could play into the commercial use case. Thanks.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
Paul, do you want to comment on the viscera to manufacture and the barriers that presents?
Paul Campbell
Interim Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, thanks, Jason. Yes, absolutely. That product is very difficult to manufacture, and we did did look at it as we were working through diligence. I will say, as of now, we're not counting on any issues that generics may have. However, we are very aware that the product is tough to make and is something that could potentially be upside in the future, but certainly we're not going to rely on that. We're going to assume if somebody has Approval that they'll be able to manufacture and deliver the volumes that are expected.
Philippe Martin
Chief Research & Development Officer
I think these are difficult to make and difficult to get approval as well because showing sameness is difficult for these products. So not every generic companies will be able to get it approved and make a product like this. On the silatograph question, I think the way we're looking at the pen is that will get a shelf life that will be anywhere around between close to two years, but that will require basically a new pen close to once a year for patients. So patients will have to renew their pen or pens every year. I think if you look at the dynamics we see for other emergency treatments, patients typically need more than one pen. They need two to three pens at one time, so I think that's part of the expectation we're going to need for Celadogrel. Anything else on that topic you want to bring up, Corinne?
Corinne Le Goff
Chief Commercial Officer
I'm going to add a point on the value of Celadogrel. Your version of the epi-frame might not apply here because the table context and the value drivers are vastly different for the cardiovascular outcome benefit that we expect and that we would consider as part of the value proposition of the product. So we will establish an episode-based value framework that will be linked to the reduction of the severity of the outcome and We will be able to measure as part of our value dossier the measurable health care system efficiencies that will be driven by the early administration of the legislature.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
You know, you make an interesting point on the number of devices that an individual will accumulate over a lifetime. And I had just a personal story. I had a near-fatal anaphylactic condition. Reaction in my mid-30s, and I probably own 50 EpiPens to this point. So modeling that gets very difficult, and the average patient certainly won't own 50. But just, you know, particularly with something as serious as anaphylaxis, or in this case acute MI, patients, and there's some quality of life data that we're going to be talking about coming out, patients feel much better to be able to have a device that they can take positive action if they have another event. You know, when we're working on all these models, a lot of patients will have more than one device, one in the car, other things, and then you need to renew the device over time. And again, I've never even had a second anaphylactic reaction myself, but I still have owned, you know, 40 to 50 EpiPens during the course of the last 30 years.
Philippe Martin
Chief Research & Development Officer
I think the other point to highlight is the fact that the risk of recurring MI is much higher within the first six months of the first MI. but it doesn't go away, right? So it stays then over time. So the need to carry the pen doesn't go away five, six, 10 years post the first MI, right? So that's also data that we'll be emphasizing as we get closer to launch.
Conference Operator
Operator
Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. Our next question comes from David Amsalem from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead with your question.
David Amsellem
Analyst, Piper Sandler
Hey, thanks. So got a couple of Expirel-related questions and just procedure questions in general. So on Expirel, I mean, it's had a more mature growth trajectory in recent years, and obviously the hospital environment can be challenging. So I guess what gives you confidence that you can grow the product significantly in the next few years before you start to see the volume limited generic competition? So that's number one. And then secondly, on the pipeline from Pacira, PCRX2002, the ropivacaine product, I know that's phase two ready. I'm just wondering how you're thinking about that asset as a potential next generation post-surgical pain product that potentially could be a replacement for Expirel or even a better version that has longer lasting effects. And what's the extent to which you're ascribing value to that asset and your level of excitement over it? Thanks.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
So, David, thank you very much for the questions. We don't own Pacera at this point in time, nor do we own Xbrow, so I'm not going to get into specific strategies in which we want to employ to change the trajectory of that growth line. I don't think that would be appropriate at this point in time. However, we have looked very, very deeply at the product. We think there are things that we can do to, you know, continue the growth rate, see a less, not as much of a mature growth rate, but continue to expand that growth rate and do some things to really sort of accelerate the XBRL growth over the next few years. We feel very confident. I don't want to get into specifics at all. I think one of the other things which is underestimated is the positive synergy of this transaction on fast-acting, on MloxCamp, non-opioid pain group, very experienced group, doing very well with the products, with both products, Zolretta and XBRL, and I think they have some capabilities. For me, the acquisition was not just about Two important assets in Expirella and Zellreda that are in the market, accretive, growing, high margin, but also the capabilities that we're acquiring when we bring the group into our group. We're very, very excited about Pacera, the capabilities that they bring, and the ability of them to help us really launch TASVAC and Meloxicam in a better way.
Corinne Le Goff
Chief Commercial Officer
And really help us reach our potential with TASVAC and Meloxicam. I think we're very impressed with the infrastructure that they have in the United States their ability to reach hospitals, ASCs and ambulatory surgical centers, but also, you know, having softballs in retail as well. So it's a very strong addition for us and it will accelerate our capabilities as we prepare for the launch of that second unit of care.
Philippe Martin
Chief Research & Development Officer
And there was a pipeline question, Philippe? Yes, on 2002, your question, I think, again, we don't own these assets yet, but we certainly did due diligence around them. The pipeline was not the main driver for this acquisition. That being said, I think there's a number of assets within that pipeline that are very interesting and have significant potential. You asked specifically about 2002, I think we see it as interesting because of the hydrogel technology and the long release time. You know, much longer effect that potentially than existing drugs on the market. And also around the ease of administration, I think is particularly important for this product. Now it's early, phase two is just starting. So once we get the data, we'll revisit everything, right? But we'll make decision based on data going forward for this pipeline. And so once that data comes in, we'll get a better sense of the potential for this asset specifically.
Conference Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Chris Schott from JP Morgan. Please go ahead with your question.
Ethan
Analyst, J.P. Morgan (on behalf of Chris Schott)
Hi, this is Ethan on for Chris. Thanks for taking our questions. Following the recent Pacira deal, just curious on how you're thinking about capital deployment and VD priorities from here. And then the second question would be, I think you noted that you secured first the file status for WeGovian, Nicole. Just curious how you're thinking about maybe the magnitude of capacity that you can get there. Thank you.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks for the question. I think from a capital allocation perspective, we don't see any changes in our capital allocation priorities. We're going to continue to pay the dividend, buy back shares, and continue to do business development over the next three to five years. We bought back shares already this year. We may even do some more this year as we go forward. We'll be opportunistic in how we do that. But we don't see any changes in our capital allocation strategy at all. In terms of BD, we'll continue to do BD. We're continuing to look for things that are accretive in market. We can be good owners of that are going to add to our growth profile going forward. So we're going to do all those things, and we're going to have sufficient cash to be able to do that. over the next three, five years, between now and 2030, buyback shares, pay the dividend, and do VD that makes sense for us.
Philippe Martin
Chief Research & Development Officer
And then we go the tablet, 25 milligram. Yes, we said that we secured a first file. Again, that's for the tablet. But as you know, we've had a significant decline Offering for GLP-1s in the future where we basically developed every presentation for semaglutide but also for thiazepatide. Our focus, as we've said in the past, will be primarily in the US where we can significantly differentiate and use our technology to further differentiate versus competition. That said, We will also be selectively launching in other regions for the GLP-1. So we are very well placed. We have many first-to-files on all these presentations and are getting ready for the U.S. market.
Conference Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Daniel Clark from Lee Rink. Please go ahead with your question.
Daniel Clark
Analyst, Leerink
Great. Thanks so much. Just wanted to drill down on the HRT kind of market and how you're thinking about growth opportunities here. You know, appreciate the color that, you know, less than 30% of women with menopausal symptoms are being treated with HRT. Where do you think that can kind of go, given this is an unprecedented situation? I think we're still trying to figure out where, you know, real demand is here at this point.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks for the question, Dan. I'll kick it over to Corinne for her response.
Corinne Le Goff
Chief Commercial Officer
Thank you for your question. As I said, it's a very large market. There is now much more ease in prescribing hormonal replacement therapies coming from clinicians. And women are being made aware that they can now have access to patches and also other formulations of Estradiol and Progesterone for relieving their menopausal symptoms. So potentially this market is large. Can we say exactly where it's going to go? I can only say that foreseeable future is going to grow. Just to give you some data on our products, our patches, we expect that they are going to reach 1.5 million women this year in 26, and we're going to add in 27 another million of women using our patches. We are very encouraged by this. I think it's wonderful to see that this market is opening up again, right? Because it's been now 10 years without the possibility of treating women with menopausal symptoms. And we are going back to levels of restrictions that we experienced back in 2002, 20 years, yeah, 2002.
Conference Operator
Operator
And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we'll be concluding today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor over to Scott Smith, CEO, for closing remarks.
Scott Smith
Chief Executive Officer
As we approach the end of 2026, I'm very encouraged by the continued progress we're making in executing our strategy and advancing toward our long-term financial targets and the momentum we are building for the years ahead. With a strong and evolving base business, important innovative medicines opportunities ahead of us, and the planned acquisition I believe we're well positioned for long-term sustained growth. We've already accomplished a lot this year, and I'm excited about what's ahead in 27 and beyond for Beatrice. Thank you all for your attention this morning.
Conference Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. We do thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.