WFRD Weatherford International plc

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Weatherford International plc Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator
Conference Operator
Good day and welcome to the Weatherford Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad, and to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Luke Lemoine, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Luke Lemoine
Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations
Welcome everyone to the Weatherford International third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I'm joined today by Girish Saligram, President and CEO, and Anuj Dhruv, CFO. We'll start today with our prepared remarks and then open it up for questions. You may download a copy of the presentation slides corresponding to today's call from our website's investor relations section. I want to remind everyone that some of the comments today include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from any expectation expressed herein. Please refer to our latest Securities and Exchange Commission filings for risk factors and cautions regarding forward-looking statements. Our comments today also include non-GAAP financial measures, the underlying details, and a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures. are included in our earnings press release or accompanying slide deck, which can be found on our website. As a reminder, today's call is being webcast, and a recorded version will be available on our website's investor relations section following the conclusion of this call. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Girish.
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Luke, and thank you all for joining our call. I'll start with an overview of our third quarter performance and near-term outlook, followed by a couple of key enterprise updates. Anuj will then cover specifics on financial performance, balance sheet and detailed guidance and I will conclude with some thoughts on the current operating environment, our initial thoughts on 2027 and our priorities as we move forward before opening the call for Q&A. To summarize our Q3 2026 performance, we delivered revenue of 1.143 billion dollars, adjusted EBITDA of 254 million dollars at a 22.2 percent margin and adjusted free cash flow of 155 million dollars representing a 61 percent conversion on adjusted EBITDA. Simply put this was an excellent quarter and I am very grateful to the One Weatherford team for continuing our track record of execution and performance. A special note of pride in our Middle East team who continue to demonstrate resilience and customer focus in very challenging circumstances. Total revenues grew 3% sequentially while absorbing the first full quarter without the Saudi LSDK contract, the wind down of our original Marmool contract in Oman, and a Middle East activity profile that has not returned to pre-conflict levels points to the stability and growth of the contract portfolio across our segments and geographies. Adjusted EBITDA margins about 22% is a tangible proof point that our thesis of being able to expand margins in a flat environment works and that expansion gets amplified with even a slight increase in revenue. Our adjusted EBITDA margins expanded 204 basis points sequentially and more significantly 39 basis points year-over-year on a 7% decline on year-on-year revenue. Finally, adjusted free cash flow increased 57% year-over-year, demonstrating our ability to generate cash at any cycle at a high conversion level. Next, I will run through some of the dynamics across our segments and regions while highlighting near-term outlook. Revenue in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia region was flat sequentially. That flat number absorbed two significant step-downs that we told you about in July. The conclusion of the Saudi LSDK contract and the transition in Oman from the original Marmool scope to the new contract, which means the rest of the business in the region grew sequentially, led by MPD, liner hangers, completions and wireline, and regional profitability improved across all three segments on strong fall-throughs. To put this in perspective, revenue in the Arabian Gulf countries grew 1% sequentially with these headwinds. At the same time, I want to be clear that the environment has not normalized. While the headlines might suggest normalization of oil exports from the region, upstream activity has not recovered fully. Rig counts in key countries are trending lower, tender cycles have slipped, and the recent escalation is a reminder that this remains an unsettled operating environment with daily operational disruptions our priority continues to be the safety of our people and business continuity for our customers and our teams have done an exceptional job with both we have deliberately not built a regional recovery into our near-term outlook we are planning the business on the basis that the region stays roughly where it is today The Middle East, North Africa and Asia region represented 39% of our business in Q3. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which was 10% of enterprise revenue and 24% of the broader geo market revenue in 2025, stood at 20% of the region in Q3, reflecting the LSDK contract step down and activity reduction. At the same time, it is worth noting that the UAE, Oman, and Kuwait collectively represented approximately 41% of this region in Q3, demonstrating the diversification of revenue within the broader region. Notably, activity levels have stayed very resilient in some countries like Oman throughout the course of the year. Latin America grew 14% sequentially, driven by Mexico and the Caribbean. In Mexico activity with the largest customer improved and just as importantly collections were strong and consistent throughout the quarter. We are very encouraged now that we have had several consecutive quarters of regular payments which is a meaningful change from where we were 18 months ago. Another highlight in the region is Venezuela as we saw our first revenue in Q3. We will see tangible revenue contribution from Venezuela in the fourth quarter but there will also be a significant startup cost element. Importantly, we see potential for Venezuela to ramp up in 2027 to triple digit revenues with further increases in 2028 and with the environment remaining stable, perhaps coming close to our prior peak in the next few years. Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and Russia declined 9% sequentially on lower activity across the segments with the Norway labor strike weighing heavily on the early part of the quarter. Norway recovered as the quarter progressed, and I am especially pleased with the Equinor Award, which I will come back to in a moment. This region will remain roughly flourished in the fourth quarter, but I am very encouraged for 2027 and beyond, with a step up in the Norwegian profile, Caspian, and Sub-Saharan Africa potential. North America saw an increase in Q3, partially driven by a single month contribution from our NCS acquisition. While the rig count has gone up, we are not expecting a noteworthy increase in overall activity levels over the next few months, but we'll see a step up in our reported revenue with the full period contributions from NCS. Slides seven through nine lay out key highlights across our segments. BRE revenue grew 14% sequentially, and segment margins expanded by over 700 basis points. Our MPD capital sales were a key driver of the margin expansion, and while we recognize this will cost some lumpiness the long-term aftermarket opportunity is something we are further developing to provide predictable high returns. WCC revenue grew four percent sequentially and this segment will see all of the impact from the NCS acquisition in the coming periods. PRI revenue is essentially flat sequentially and we remain encouraged on a positive inflection here when the Middle East returns to normal and there is an emphasis on interventions to restore production. Offshore continues to be the most durable team over the next few years. Our core offshore offerings of managed pressure drilling, tubular running services and interventions had another strong quarter of awards that are highlighted in our press release and investor presentation on slide seven through nine. The deepwater MPD systems we were awarded earlier this year are continuing to be delivered across the second half of this year. And every system we put on a deepwater rig grows an installed base that generates multi-year aftermarket spots and services revenue. What we hear from customers is consistent. Deepwater sanctioning is increasing, led by Brazil, West Africa, the Mediterranean, and Asia. And this work is longer cycle, technology intensive, and far less exposed to the short cycle volatility we see on land. While we estimate that around 70% of drill ships either currently have or are in the process of installing an MPD system, there is a natural question of market saturation. However, we are confident that this number will continue to climb to around 85 or 90%, giving us an opportunity for several more systems over the next few years. Additionally, there is a very significant opportunity around other offshore rigs, and the aftermarket opportunity creates a more stable revenue base. Our MPD business is projected to grow above double digits this year, with further growth in 2027. That includes an aftermarket component that will more than double this year and could further double here on in the next couple of years. Beyond these core offerings, I am very excited about a growth opportunity in offshore completions. Completions is now our largest product line and offshore represents significant potential for the future. We announced a significant award with Total Energies in Denmark a couple of quarters ago, a win with Exxon in Nigeria last quarter, and in Q3, Equinor awarded us a two-year extension and a new offshore completions award to provide our integrated completions portfolio for the Norwegian continental shelf. Additionally, Seplat Energy awarded us a five-year contract for completions, products and services including gas lip solutions for its shallow offshore operations in Nigeria. In the legacy NCS business, During the quarter, we secured an award in the Deepwater Gulf of America for its FRAC sleeves and service tools following four years of collaborative development with a major international operator. The work is expected to commence in the first quarter of 2027, an important step into the offshore market for that technology. With the NCS acquisition and our organic efforts, we now have a value proposition across the conventional, unconventional and offshore domains in completions. With that backdrop, I will frame our outlook for Q4 and Anuj will provide more specifics. We are raising our full year adjusted free cash flow conversion outlook again for the third time this year and are narrowing our adjusted EBITDA range around a midpoint that is just slightly down from July. This despite the Middle East region that has weakened relative to expectations in July and the divestiture of a few small non-core product lines. Fourth quarter revenue steps up meaningfully with the full quarter of NCS, the delivery of the Brazil MPD system, the startup in Venezuela, and seasonally higher activity in North America. And fourth quarter margins reflect the mix of that revenue and startup costs in Venezuela. I am particularly encouraged that we have line of sight to a mid to high single digit increase sequentially in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia region, primarily driven by countries in the Arabian Gulf. We have been consistent that we will not chase revenue at the expense of returns and the margin and cash performance in Q3 is the clearest evidence of that discipline. Let me now turn to a couple of enterprise updates starting with the portfolio. As shown on slides 13 through 15, we completed the acquisition of NCS multistage during the quarter and I am very pleased with how the integration is going. The integration management office was in place before close. Day one went smoothly and the key talent we wanted to retain is on board and the cost synergy work streams are tracking to the at least $15 million we committed to within 18 months of closing. More important than the cost synergies is the price we identified when we announced the deal. Taking differentiated technology that was built in a concentrated footprint and putting it through a sales channel that covers six continents. That thesis is fully intact and it is already showing up. With that acquisition of NCS, we now bring into our portfolio a differentiated completions technology platform that surpassed 500,000 frac stages completed since 2009. In North America, customers have responded to the combination by asking for more joint projects and quotations, and our international teams are qualifying early cross-sell opportunities in Argentina, the Middle East, and the North Sea. NCS is a prime example of what we mean by portfolio enhancement differentiated technology plus global distribution over the past few months we signed agreements to divest a few small non-core product lines individually none of these is material and together they will create some dislocation and reported revenue over the next couple of quarters but they are deliberate They free up management attention and capital, they simplify the organization, and they sharpen the portfolio around the technology differentiated product lines that we are building the company around. That is the same lens we apply to M&A, adding where it strengthens the portfolio, as with NCS, and exiting where it does not. We are setting up the portfolio for the next phase of Weatherford. Our infrastructure modernization program witnessed the first major milestone on our ERP journey with the successful launch of our enterprise performance management applications. Essentially, this means that the financial consolidation of our quarter close was done in a new system, was perfectly routine, and the on-time external delivery of Q3 earnings and documentation showcases the outstanding planning and execution by the team driving it. At our special shareholder meeting in September, shareholders approved all the proposals required to re-domesticate from Ireland to Delaware. The re-domestication remains subject to customary closing conditions, including final approval by the Irish High Court, and we expect it to become effective during the fourth quarter. We continue to expect approximately $20 to $30 million of annual cash savings beginning in 2027, while having no impact on our global footprint, Our customer commitments or our ongoing operations. I want to thank our shareholders for their engagement and support through this process. So to recap, a weaker than expected macro environment, especially in the Middle East. Nonetheless, a terrific quarter on financial performance. Strong contract wins showcasing portfolio value. M&A is a strategic lever that is paying off and enterprise initiatives yielding tangible improvements. That's the story of the past 90 days. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Anuj.
Anuj Dhruv
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Girish, and good morning, everyone. Girish has covered the operating performance, and the details are in our press release and slide deck. So I will focus on cash flow, the balance sheet, and guidance. Turning to slide 24, adjusted free cash flow was $155 million in the third quarter, a 61% conversion on adjusted EBITDA, compared to 36.8% in the third quarter of 2025, driven by higher adjusted EBITDA, continued collections, including from our largest customer in Mexico, and disciplined capital expenditures. Year to date, we have generated $379 million of adjusted free cash flow, up 55% year over year, at a 53% conversion. This is the second consecutive quarter above 60% and the drivers are structural. Working capital discipline, capital intensity, and asset utilization. While there will always be quarterly variances, it is very encouraging to have two consecutive quarters above 60% and provide clear proof points of a ramp to our target of sustainably achieving a 50% conversion level. Adjusted Networking Capital was 29.2% of trailing 12-month revenue, up sequentially with roughly 150 basis points from the consolidation of NCS and the balance from receivables and inventory timing ahead of fourth quarter deliveries. Despite that, the ratio improved year over year and we remain committed to our goal of 25% or better. Capital expenditures were 45 million or 3.9 percent of revenues within the three to five percent range we have laid out. For the fourth quarter, capital expenditure dollars will increase as we're accelerating some spend based on the demand we see for 2027. While total year CapEx will remain within the three to five percent of revenue range, the Q4 spend will likely be in the 70 to $80 million range with our ERP spend captured within that. During the quarter, we returned $47 million to shareholders, $19 million in dividends, and $28 million in share repurchases, bringing total returns since the inception of the program to more than $420 million. Our focus on maintaining a Fortress balance sheet remains clearly visible. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.2 billion of cash, total liquidity of approximately $1.8 billion, which includes total cash and credit facility, and net leverage of 0.28 times. S&P and Fitch upgraded their outlooks on our reaffirmed BB ratings to positive during the quarter, joining Moody's in recognizing the progress we have made in strengthening the company's credit profile. On October 20th, we issued a notice to redeem all $236 million of our 8.625% senior notes due 2030 using cash on hand in line with our prior commentary of reducing gross leverage at the appropriate pricing level. This redemption is at par and will leave us with no debt maturities for the next seven years and annualized cash interest expense reduction of approximately $20 million. Coupled with the expected cash savings from re-domestication, this would represent over 400 basis points of improvement in adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow conversion at these levels. This sets us up well to achieve our 50% target in 2027. These actions represent the next step in simplifying our capital structure, lowering our cost of capital, and positioning Weatherford with investment grade equivalent credit metrics. Importantly, they provide greater financial flexibility to invest in organic growth, selective M&A, and shareholder returns through the cycle. Turning to guidance on slide 25. For the fourth quarter, We expect revenues of $1.28 billion to $1.33 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $270 million to $290 million, which is a margin that is modestly down from third quarter levels. The sequential revenue increase reflects a full quarter of NCS, Middle East product deliveries, the delivery of deepwater MPD systems, Seasonally higher activity in North America and increased volumes in Latin America including the startup in Venezuela. Fourth quarter margins reflects the mix of equivalent deliveries along with startup costs in Venezuela. At the midpoint of Q4 guidance, this will put second half adjusted EBITDA margins over 150 basis points above the first half, validating the ramp we have discussed. despite an obvious weakening in the Middle East activity. Our productivity initiatives, technology-driven mix changes, and higher activity we expect should result in year-on-year margin improvements in 2027, and we will provide more specific quantification of that on our next call. We expect adjusted free cash flow of more than 100 million. While our AR balance for our largest customer in Mexico As a percentage of total enterprise revenues is at the lowest level it's been in the past six years, the magnitude of remaining payments is still the largest variable on quarterly free cash flow. We have raised our adjusted free cash flow conversion outlook every quarter this year and we're again raising it for the full year to the high 40% range from mid to high 40% in July. which puts us within closing distance of our 50% target on the strength of structural improvements rather than one-time items. In connection with the effectiveness of the re-domestication, we also plan to take a certain restructuring actions at a subsidiary level. While the accounting and tax implications of those actions are still being evaluated, we expect they would have a material positive non-cash impact to the income tax provision in the fourth quarter. Thank you and I will now pass the call back to Girish.
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks Anuj. I want to step back and share how we are thinking about 2027 and what we are doing to position Weatherford for the next several years. Let me start with the backdrop. The Middle East has not normalized and our base case is status quo on the current situation. Unfortunately, that status quo implies volatility and uncertainty versus a steady run rate, but we are planning with the run rate to be in line with the last few months of this year. Outside the Middle East, however, the picture is constructive and getting more so. Deepwater sanctioning is increasing, led by Brazil, West Africa, the Mediterranean and Asia, and our offshore MPD, TRS interventions and completions businesses will be the drivers of impact from that team. Latin America is growing, with Venezuela reopening to international operators and Mexico stabilizing. The international markets where NCS strengthens our position, Argentina, the Middle East, and the North Sea continue to develop. And U.S. land remains short cycle and we plan it accordingly. So here's how we think about 2027. Excluding the Middle East, international market activity levels should rise mid to high single digits driven by Latin America and Asia. North America will likely be up low single digits. Assuming the Middle East remains at current levels, that ought to provide a global market activity increase in the mid single digits with a more noticeable increase starting in the second quarter. For Weatherford specifically, we expect to be higher than that based on the contribution of the NCS business, share gain in some key areas, and Venezuela reopening. while simultaneously offsetting the first half 2026 headwinds of the ISP contracts and Middle East activity levels. The mantra of margin expansion is central to our operating ethos and should manifest itself driven by a structurally lower cost base, mix effects, synergies and higher activity driven fall through. We are within touching distance of 50% full-year adjusted free cash flow conversion and expect to achieve that in 2027 based on the factors Anuj outlined. All in all, despite the headwinds from the Middle East, we see a constructive outlook shaping up for 2027 and the years following that. We will provide specific guidance on our next call but wanted to paint a picture of the emerging landscape. As we think about the next phase of the company, I'd like to reiterate what we've consistently said for the past six years. Please do not judge us by words or rhetoric, rather let our numbers speak for us. We have consistently delivered over 20% adjusted EBITDA margins over the past few years, when rigs got cut in Saudi, when Mexico activity collapsed, with the current conflict, and so on. At the same time, we have continued to march on our path to higher free cash flow conversion and margins, focusing on our controllable elements. Performance remains our calling card and our north star of free cash flow remains unchanged. We are focused on driving a higher degree of absolute dollars as well as margins. We believe that achieving mid-20s adjusted EBITDA margins with 50% conversion of free cash flow is not just achievable, it is a very clear path in the next few years and likely sooner with activity increases. To enable that performance, we now have more capability in our portfolio and are investing in further enhancing that value proposition. We are well positioned as a technology differentiator in key segments and product lines. Our MPD, TRS, interventions, Artificial lift and cementing products businesses have leadership positions in several areas. We are further augmenting that with a continued pruning of low return businesses and capability addition in completions, drilling services, wireline and digital. The liquidity on the balance sheet and low leverage affords the capacity to accelerate that with inorganic growth in a thoughtful and prudent fashion. While we believe we can meaningfully expand margins through technology mix and operating efficiencies in a flat environment, the combination of unconventional growth, mature field rejuvenation, offshore resilience, and Venezuela give me a lot of confidence in revenue growth over the next few years. The most important element of the confidence in our portfolio delivering performance is the third P, our people. This is a team that has consistently adapted and delivered and I am grateful for the experience, expertise and energy of the leadership team that permeates all the way to the frontline of the company. Thank you for your time this morning and with that operator, please open the floor for questions.
Operator
Conference Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using the speakerphone, we ask that you please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you'd like to withdraw your question, please press star then 2. At this time, we'll pause for just a moment to assemble our roster. And today's first question comes from David Anderson at Barclays. Please go ahead.
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks. Good morning, Girish. How are you? Hey, Dave. How are you doing? Good morning.
David Anderson
Analyst, Barclays
Good morning. So on your 27, you're kind of framing the picture for us here. I just wanted this kind of quite a bit to unpack in there. So you're talking about mid-single-digit growth activity. Weatherford's going to outperform that. So if we take sort of the second half of 26 run rate, can you help us bridge the gap of kind of the things that are kind of Weatherford-specific in here that are going to see growth outside of that? And you're not assuming any Middle East recovery in there. So should we imply that Weatherford could be up double digits if Middle East does come back? I mean, is that kind of what we're thinking about here just based upon how the rest of the portfolio is setting up?
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Dave, you're right. Look, it is a little bit complex, a lot of different moving pieces. I'm not going to comment on what you could imply. I'll leave that to your more than capable mind and abilities to figure that out. But look, we've had, you know, we'll have this year four months of impact from NCS. So obviously, that'll have a much bigger impact in the first eight months of next year. So I think that'll be a bit of a positive. On the other hand, what we do have is through the first half of 2026, we have the ISP contracts in the Middle East, plus a much higher activity profile in the first quarter of 2026. So those will need to get offset. So I think it's really better to look at this on a bit of a longer term basis and take a look at it as a total sort of 12 month view and frame it as that with some degree of of movement across across the quarter i think more importantly is what Anuj alluded to in his prepared remarks on that margin expansion on a year-on-year basis that's something we feel really good about just given the fact that we have made some structural improvements this year we will not have uh you know some of the natural effects of a spike in cost that we had earlier this year as well as the synergies that we're going to get plus fall tools from increased revenue so NetNet, I think it's shaping up to be very positive. It will be a bit more of a ramp in the second half, but this is now the second year in 26 that we have had that ramp. We have delivered it. So hopefully that gives everyone a lot more confidence as we talk about it in 2027.
David Anderson
Analyst, Barclays
Thanks, Christian. Just to clarify just on that margin improvement in 27, is that off the full year 26 or is that off the second half exit rate in 26?
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
At this point, best to take it as a full year, Dave. Great. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Operator
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Scott Gruber at Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Scott Gruber
Analyst, Citigroup
Yes, good morning Girish and Anuj. Girish, you mentioned that you're not building a Middle East recovery into the outlook. You're planning for status quo. And yet you do see mid to high single-digit sequential growth in the N4Q led by the Gulf countries. Can you reconcile those two? There's four key mostly year-end product sales versus underlying activity. And with Saudi, you know, now about 20% of the region, and I think I heard you say UAE, Oman, and Kuwait are like double that at 40%. Can you kind of walk around the region and identify areas of relative strength or normalcy versus areas of continued weakness?
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, morning, Scott. Look, great question. No, you're right. They do at the face value sound a little bit divergent statements. But essentially, when we talk about that activity level, we're really referring primarily to service activity on the ground. And that is in Q4, we typically have a much higher product delivery quarter. That is very true in North America, but it's also very true in the Middle East with typically year-end deliveries of completions, liner hangers, and cementing products. So we've got the pipeline on that. We've got the purchase orders. Our manufacturing teams are working flat out to make sure those deliveries happen, and that's what gives us that confidence. but the base activity level we are assuming does not actually change and this will you know feed the inventory profile for our customers as they go into into 2027. So I think that's really what drives that. Look on your second question part of the reason we provided a little bit of that context was to give a bit of a sense of look you know there is a lot of concern understandably naturally and appropriately so around the Middle East right now but we've got you know a revenue profile that is fairly well diversified across the various countries you know there tends to be a little bit of concern especially just given the recent escalation in the kingdom of things that have happened and you know we've got a very strong revenue profile in places like the UAE and especially in Oman which have remained pretty intact so as we look at activity levels I think UAE and Oman remain pretty strong and kind of normalized at this point Kuwait and Saudi a little bit down, Iraq substantially. So that's sort of the mix that we see. But I think all in all, we feel pretty good about the position that we have and the ability to generate the margins and cash.
Scott Gruber
Analyst, Citigroup
I appreciate the call. I'll leave it there and turn it back. Thank you. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Operator
Thank you. And our next question today comes from James West at Milius Research. Please go ahead.
James West
Analyst, Melius Research
Hey, good morning, Girish. I wanted to ask a bit about the NCIS acquisition. You're tracking to about 50 million of cost synergies, but you've consistently said, and I agree with this, that the revenue synergy is the real prize. Would you mind giving us some more detail on the cross-sell pipeline in Argentina, the Middle East, the North Sea? Timing to kind of first meaningful international revenue and what a reasonable revenue synergy number could be and then if I can kind of throw a second one in there. Has anything surprised you positively or negatively in the first 90 days since the closing?
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, James, let me start with maybe the latter part of the question. You know, acquisitions are always a little tricky regardless of the size and sometimes that you're buying a company with 50 people, 500 people or 5000 people. Thank you for joining us. They see the opportunities and I think they're starting to now really come out in spades. So I think the biggest positive for me has just been really a crystallization of this potential revenue synergy profile, which is the first part of your question. So look, I look at it really sort of in three parts. I think the first is from an offshore standpoint, really on the deepwater side. One of the things that we get with NCS is a platform that unlocks tight plays. And these were tight plays that were previously potentially non-commercial due to lower permeability in the reservoir. We've had some very interesting trials. We are now taking it into the Gulf of America. And when you combine that with the rest of the capability that we have across the portfolio, it becomes a much bigger integrated completion play in offshore and and so that's something that's brand new and I think we'll add over the coming years you know I've talked in the past about the tracers capability that NCS brings that is really an extension of our overall completions portfolio and it really allows customers to get a much deeper sense of what is happening downhole once we've actually deployed the jewelry into the well so that really becomes now a how do you get use your completions to gain a A view into reservoir performance. And then you know the other thing that is really exciting is on the geothermal space. I think we've got some very interesting capability there on engineered geothermal systems. Again you combine that with what we have with our natural high temperature capabilities, our DFOS capability, It becomes, again, a bigger offering. So, look, I have not put a specific number around it, and we won't at this point in time. We are focused on the quantification being around the cost synergies that we feel very good about getting to at least $15 million. And my hope is over the coming years, we will grow this business at a run rate that is at least mid to high single digits above its natural run rate.
James West
Analyst, Melius Research
Got it. Thanks, Girish.
Operator
Conference Operator
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Saurabh Pant with BOA. Please go ahead.
Saurabh Pant
Analyst, Bank of America
Hi, good morning, Girish and Anuj.
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Saurabh. Morning.
Saurabh Pant
Analyst, Bank of America
Morning, Girish. So I want to touch on Venezuela a little bit, Girish. Last quarter you were getting more encouraged, and now you're talking about first revenue in the third quarter, and I think a ramp to more than $100 million revenue in 27, further upside in 28. So that's very positive. Maybe just walk us through on what's underpinning that confidence. Is this contracted work with specific operators or activity assumption on specific product lines? How are we thinking about this? And then how should we think about the 4Q startup calls that I think Anuj was talking about in his prepared remarks?
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Sure. Yeah, Saurabh, look, I think if you look back at the last few calls, our tone, my excitement around Venezuela has grown very steadily on each one. And that has really been driven by the conversations that we've been having with customers, the magnitude of the conversations, the number of different customers that we've been talking to has increased significantly. Conversations have gone from sort of what if to now how soon how fast and are you know on the basis of actual orders that we're getting versus sort of pie in the sky kind of concept so really that confidence is underpinned by us having very clear line of sight to contracting work some of which is very much in progress We are furiously hiring people in Venezuela. Our headcount has increased substantially in the past several weeks and we continue to add to the capability of our team. So look I would expect that in the next few months there will probably be more visibility and more specifics around which customers but I think suffice to say we are talking to several different operators We're focused on international operators who have signed a lot of these agreements that have been in the news and are well publicized. We have gotten purchase orders in. We are starting work and that's really what's driving it. Now the startup cost look we're not going to get into very specific quantification because we don't do that on a country and project basis. It is a little bit of a drag but very naturally so. We've got some refurbishment of our facilities. We've got hiring costs bringing people on board. You know we've got to make sure we get some inventory which is a bit more of a cash impact more than anything else. but just making sure we're getting ready for what we see as a fairly big wave of activity uh that is coming upon us and and that's what look we would not use words like a potential ramped triple digit revenue if we weren't uh you know seeing a pretty clear line of sight to it okay okay got it Girish that's very encouraging thank you i'll turn it back thank you thank you and our next question today comes from Derek Podhazer at Piper Sailor & Company please go ahead
Derek Podhazer
Analyst, Piper Sandler & Company
Hey, good morning Girish. So you iterated the mid 20% EBITDA margin, 50% free cash flow conversions, clear path over the next two years. The second half margins are already at 150 points above first half. Maybe could you help us bridge today from the 22% to your mid 20% target, breaking it down, how much is structural, how much is technology like the MPD aftermarket and completions that you mentioned? And importantly, how much activity is needed? I know the underlying guidance is based on a flat Middle East, but does the path in the mid 20% require a Middle East recovery or can you get there if the region does stay flat?
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Derek, look, you know, I'll reiterate what we've said multiple times. We really try to run the business with a focus on we're going to get to that target at flat revenues. You know, it's going to take a lot longer, obviously, but our role really is to drive 25 to 75 bps of margin expansion on flat revenue. That's kind of the way we think about it. And, you know, we don't really look at, you know, how much exactly is going to come from each element because it's going to vary on a quarter by quarter, year by year basis. but we do expect that there will be a contribution from structural cost the modernization of our infrastructure we think is a very significant play that will unlock a lot more cost efficiencies in the company and allow us to focus on on things that are higher value added we are continuing to develop and deploy technology and we are very encouraged by uh the initial signs of that you know everything that is coming out increases that value gap so that that helps um and then a mixed shift towards lower capital intensity, higher margin kinds of businesses. We talked about some of the small divestitures. In totality, it's not huge order of magnitude, less than 1% of the company, but it is lower margin. It allows us to, again, focus our time and efforts on things that actually drive higher value. So we feel very good that even in a flat environment, we should be able to get to that mid-20s. It'll probably take about three to four years if you just extrapolated out now on the flip side if you see activity increases and we are confident that we will see that come through and we will see revenue increases that increases the amplitude of that margin as well as accelerates the timing of it so i think you'll if we see that activity increase depending on what it is that three to four years could get accelerated a little bit great appreciate all the comments i'll turn it back
Operator
Conference Operator
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Jim Rolison at Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Jim Rolison
Analyst, Raymond James
Hey, good morning, gents, and thanks for all the comments so far. Girish, if we kind of circle back to 4Q guide, so you've got margins coming down, you know, just kind of modestly from the 22.2% in 3Q on a pretty big step up in revenues. You kind of walk through some of this, but I'd love to, you know, for you to decompose kind of how much of that margin delta is is tied to NCF solution, how much is kind of that MPD, Middle East equipment delivery mix, and then Venezuela's startup cost is trying to kind of understand how that flows. Yeah, so short answer, Jim, is yes.
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
So again, look, I think it's a variety of factors. Let me start, though, with the third quarter. You know, we did deliver significantly better margins than what we had expected, but you know some of that is just also your shift between the third quarter and fourth quarter just in terms of the projects that we had the Venezuela startup cost is something that has ramped up and is a little bit newer in development and you know we're sort of building that out on a day-to-day basis so that I would say is a bit more of a reality than it was when we gave our prior guidance in July and then look the rest of it is natural I would say seasonality you know It's not just the Middle East deliveries. What's actually a bigger factor is North America. What we typically see in the fourth quarter is typical year-end bailment sales, typically lower margin, eventually leads to higher pull-throughs on an aftermarket basis later in the life cycle. So, you know, altogether, if you put it, you know, it's not a huge drag and it's still significantly ahead of the first half, and that's really what we try to to manage it around. And that's the bigger focus rather than trying to time it within a 90-day window. It's structurally getting better, and all of this will eventually lead to higher margins, especially the Venezuela startup costs.
Jim Rolison
Analyst, Raymond James
Got it. And just that follow-up on that MPD capital sales margin benefit you referenced earlier, is that something that is a recurring thing, or do we think of ERE margins, at least in the short run, as kind of 3Q being a high-water market?
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
yeah great great question uh look i think you know let me start with the latter part i would certainly not call it the high water mark uh we have done better on dre margins in in the past um but it clearly in the short term does create a little bit of a unnatural spike if you will and typically when we have you know older equipment used asset sales that is a significantly higher contribution to those margin levels as we have discussed in prior earnings calls but you know as we pointed out in our prepared remarks we still see the opportunity over the next few years of a lot more MPD sales so I do think there will be some degree of lumpiness but I think as activity levels improved my hope is that there is still more headroom in DRE margins. Appreciate your thoughts. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Operator
And our next question today comes from Doug Becker at Capital One. Please go ahead.
Scott Gruber
Analyst, Citigroup
Thanks. Girish wanted to follow up on some of those MPD comments. Offshore is clearly a durable theme over the next couple of years. 70% MPD penetration among drill ships. Potentially go to 90%, you mentioned. Aftermarket's doubling this year. It'll double again over the next couple years. So I was hoping you would size the MPD business, the aftermarket component. What do deepwater deliveries look like the rest of this year and into next year? And then finally, just what's the opportunity for other offshore rig types if we go to semis and jackups?
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, hey, Doug, good morning. Look, we don't break out, as you know, specific product line, sizing, etc. I think suffice to say, MPD continues to be an important part of the company. It's obviously one of our leading businesses, but it's sort of in the same ballpark as a lot of our other product lines. What I am very encouraged by is the growth rates that we've seen in MPD this year, and that has been dramatically exaggerated on the offshore side. So offshore has clearly grown significantly. and a much stronger profile this year than the onshore business. Some of it is just the natural weakness of the Middle East, but I think it's more a testament to the strength of the offshore cycle. So, Doug, what we see is you look at, depending on how you count it, order of magnitude between 80 and 90 deepwater rigs out there. If we've got another 10 to 15 percent opportunity, let's call it, that's still a sizable number of systems. You know, the exact timing of that is always going to be a little bit unpredictable, but I think suffice to say we've got very clear line of sight to a lot more in the pipeline. The conversations that we are having with the drill ship operators, the contractors are very positive as they understand that MPD is now becoming just an integral part of their overall offering it's something that customers expect not just MPD enablement but have the capability on the rig and then it's not just about having the hardware it's about how do you actually make it function so that services element over the long term becomes important and then look you know there is a much large price up there as you look at the jack-up market the semi-sub market that is significantly under penetrated and I think as we We tend to look at more mature field rejuvenation. We look at your reservoirs that are harder to drill. the whole notion of MPD making wells accessible that previously weren't really starts to become a theme as well as the extension from MPD into this concept of MPW or managed pressure wells across various life cycles so you know I'm very very encouraged by this MPD business really excited about the aftermarket muscle that we have built on it and I think the next few years should be very positive for this product line.
Scott Gruber
Analyst, Citigroup
Thank you.
Operator
Conference Operator
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Keith Mackey at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Keith Mackey
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Hey, good morning team and thanks very much. Anuj, so the Q4 free cash flow guidance of 100 million plus looks conservative relative to Q3 55 million with a higher EBITDA number. Can you just bridge the pieces? there including the increased capex and working capital build and just on Mexico you said your largest customers AR is a percentage of revenues at a six-year low but remaining payments are still the largest variable can you just size what's outstanding and what's assumed in the q4 guide please hey Keith good morning happy to so you're right we the 100 million proved to be a bit conservative
Anuj Dhruv
Chief Financial Officer
though that has been our approach given the overall macro environment so we are guiding at 100 versus 155 and so just to take a step back and reiterate what we said in the prepared remarks one our year-to-date free cash flow generation has been 379 million dollars and we've converted about 53 percent of that to free cash and we do have quarters that are that are lumpy lumpier than others we've had two quarters about 60 percent we've had one quarter in the mid 30 percent and so you do have items such as timing of collections our cash interest payment our cash bonus payments large product sales that can swing any given quarter and free cash correspondingly However, the key for us is to ensure we drive to the full year target, which we've put out there, which is at the high 40%. As it relates to Q4 specifically, we do have a cash interest payment that we'll make, which we did not have in Q3. For good measure, I'll point out we did redeem and we are in the process of redeeming our 2030 note, which will, going forward, reduce our interest expense by 20 million on an annual basis. The second piece in Q4 that Girish alluded to a bit and so did I in the prepared remarks is we are ramping our capex in Q4 to the 70 to 80 million dollar range which sequentially is an increase of 25 to 35 million and the reason we're doing that is to meet the demand we're seeing for 2027. So when you couple the interest payment and the increase in capex that accounts for most of the delta between the 155 that we guided or that we hit here in q3 from a working capital standpoint we did build inventory in q3 and the reason for that is we do have product deliveries generally that are a bit lumpier in q4 and so we should see some relief in q4 as it comes to inventory as we deliver these overall products from a pemex standpoint yes very very positive that pemex is a percent of our total Thank you for joining us. and since then the collections have been really coming in like clockwork and so we do have collections baked into our Q4 number and we do expect to receive this from our largest customer in Mexico but but just to summarize all this you know we've said this many times and I hope all 16,500 of our Weatherford employees are on the call nodding their head to this our singular If you had to have one singular goal, our North Star is to drive free cash flow based decisions. And so our key is to continue to march towards the overall 50% target. And we're very confident in hitting the high 40% here for full year 2026.
Keith Mackey
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Okay, very helpful. Thanks very much.
Operator
Conference Operator
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Philip Youngworth at BMO. Please go ahead.
Philip Youngworth
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
Thanks. Good morning, guys. Girish, you mentioned completions is now your largest product line, and you've strung together a number of offshore completion awards here from Total, Exxon, Equinor, CEPLAT. Just curious what's driving this offshore win rate. Is it more technology-led or an integration story? And just how should we think about completions growth? N27 across conventional and offshore. And if I can just squeeze one more in, the NCS Deepwater Fract Sleeve Award that you called out, is that a one-off or could it be the start of a real offshore channel for that technology?
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
yeah look i'm incredibly proud of what the team has done here and it's been a very focused and disciplined effort over several years it started with the vision but really having the investment that went in to drive technology differentiation but you don't you know you just don't win on the merits of that there has to be integration we have to have a track record of execution so all of those elements come in and it's taken some time because this is not a place where customers naturally want to take a risk and you know they're hesitant to try new things but the team's done an outstanding job so I'm very confident and hopeful that we will see this trend continue and we will continue to win more so I would expect look it tends to be again a tad bit more lumpy given its product sales etc but over the next few years I would expect that as the offshore momentum continues to build out, this is a product line that will be in the very top tier of our CAGR across the business. On the NCS question, look, really, really focused on this as being a new pathway for us. you know every time you get the first one it is a bit of a one-off but really the intent on this is to create a completely new space for us where we have a differentiated offering so very excited about that but it's going to start as this one thing thank you thank you and our next question today comes from Josh Silverstein at UBS please go ahead
Josh Silverstein
Analyst, UBS
Thanks. Good morning, guys. Anuj, I'll go back to you on the free cash flow side. I'm going to target working capital here. It moved up to over 29% of revenue with 150 basis points from NCS and the rest from receivables and inventory timing. What's the path back towards 25%? Is that a 27 target? And how much of this is structural with NCS versus Mexico receivable? And what are the specific levers on the inventory side? given the 4Q delivery bill. Thanks.
Anuj Dhruv
Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Josh. Morning. Thanks for the question. So just to start off, yes, 29.2% for working capital as a percent of revenue. There's an asterisk next to that number there with regards to NCS. The way it's amalgamated, as you know, is we have a month of the underlying financial cash flow revenue results. but we have the entire balance sheet that we've consolidated and so it is not structural the 150 base points over time as the full order impact is reflected in our numbers that should normalize and so if you look at the overall progress we've made relative to the same time last year we've had a lower revenue base and as a percent of revenue we've decreased our working capital even greater and so there are significant actions underway in order for us to go and structurally be at that 25% but I do want to note that which is you know even in a tough environment where the denominator has has come down relative to the year before we've reduced our working capital even more so on a percentage basis and the reason I allude to this is as we look forward to 2027 You've heard the comments and the prepared remarks and the Q&A here from Girish around what we're expecting in 27. And so as you start ramping the denominator higher, it naturally will allow us to start marching even faster towards the 25% number. And so that will help. But at the same time, our ability to manage working capital will be essential. and I'm confident that as we start ramping into 2027 and through 2027 we can manage our working capital such that it does not increase at a higher percentage relative to what we've done in the past and so to summarize the 25 there are a lot of moving variables we talked a bit about our largest customer in Mexico you know that can be chunky here and there and and there is always some risk in the timing of those collections however they have been paying and we've been receiving money every quarter like clockwork and so if all these variables continue on there's some inventory optimization that we're working towards on doing part of your question you talked about inventory I believe and and what are the levers we need for inventory really for q4 for inventory it's just deliver our products that simple we have an inventory build in q3 to deliver products in Q4. So we deliver those products. The inventory ends up coming down and it's probably a net benefit for the quarter. And so just summarizing everything, I do think that in 2027, there's potential line of sight for us to hit and march towards that 25%. But again, it's not just hitting that 25% and then being comfortable with it. It's making sure that we have the structural structural cadence and processes in place inside so we can remain at that 25 percent and that 25 percent of working capital is is really a sub component of our target of hitting a 50 percent free cash flow conversion which as as you've seen here in in 2026 uh in various quarters we've been well ahead of that and so more to come but uh the the trains are on the right track i believe
Operator
Conference Operator
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Alexa Brenno at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Alexa Brenno
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Thanks for taking our question. Wanted to just double click on the opportunity set if we get a normalization in Middle East activity. I think we talk a lot about what that intervention work could look like for the PRI segment. Can you just help us size that opportunity?
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Alexa, it's very hard to tell because it changes with time. And I think the longer this drags on, perversely, I think it gets a little bit higher, but it's really a function of where it drags on how long it drags on but my expectation would be you know sort of a you know mid single digit incremental uh increase over what it is uh good news is you know we've already got contracts in place uh we've got you know we're covered with a lot of capability uh in the region so i think as it ramps up based on our customers plans and what they see uh we are very well poised to support them thanks so much i'll turn it back
Operator
Conference Operator
Thank you. And our final question today comes from Josh Jane at Daniel Energy Partners. Please go ahead.
Josh Jane
Analyst, Daniel Energy Partners
Thanks for squeezing me in. You made a number of helpful guideposts for 27 with respect to activity, but I just want to take your temperature a bit on operator capex on a relative basis. So, you know, we're in elevated crude price environment. Everything should be economic, but just based on what you're seeing and sense of urgency on upticks, Any thoughts on companies who have a diversified asset base? Are you seeing a shift of relative capex dollars offshore versus onshore over the next couple of years? Or do you think things are sort of moving in a similar pace?
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Josh, we've not seen a dramatic change. I think there's been a very clear trend towards that offshore inflection and putting more dollars in there. So we haven't seen that necessarily Thanks for taking my question.
Operator
Conference Operator
Thank you. And that concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.
Girish Saligram
President and Chief Executive Officer
Great. Thank you all for joining. Appreciate it. And we'll talk to you in early February about fourth quarter and total year. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Operator
Thank you, sir. And that concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.