QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc.
$74.52
Restaurant Brands International Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Conference Call Analysis
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Conference Operator
Good morning and welcome to Restaurant Brands International's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone to confirm that you are in the queue. To exit the question queue, press star then one. All callers will be limited to one question today. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to pass the conference over to Tara Andrews, RBI's Director of Investor Relations. Tara, please go ahead.
Tara Andrews
Director of Investor Relations
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Restaurant Brands International's earnings call for the quarter-ended September 30th, 2026. Joining me on the call today are Restaurant Brands International's Executive Chairman, Patrick Doyle, CEO, Josh Kobza, and CFO, Sami Siddiqui. Following remarks from Josh, Sami, and Patrick, we will open the call to questions. Today's discussion may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks detailed in the press release issued this morning and in our SEC filings. We will also reference non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which can be found in the press release and trending schedules available on our website. As a reminder, organic adjusted operating income growth is on a constant currency basis and excludes results from the restaurant holdings segment. For calendar planning purposes, our preliminary Q4 earnings call is scheduled for the morning of February 11, 2027. And now I'll turn the call over to Josh.
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. In Q3, we delivered 3.8% same store sales and 3% net restaurant growth. driving 6.2% system-wide sales growth and 6.7% organic adjusted operating income growth. This marks our fifth consecutive quarter of same store sales above 3%, led by strong performances from Burger King U.S. and International and a return to solid growth at Tim Hortons. I think there are a few things driving our consistent outperformance, but two priorities stand out across our brands. The first is a persistent focus on restaurant operations. We know that consistently delivering great food and great experience is fundamental to building guest loyalty and driving sustainable growth. Where execution is already good, we're raising our standards, and where there's more work to do, we're moving with urgency to close the gaps. The second is listening to our guests and acting on what they're telling us. That looks different across our brands, whether it's elevating the core menu at Burger King, refocusing on Popeye's signature offerings, bringing back guest favorites at Tim's, or developing locally relevant innovation across our international business. But the underlying principle is the same, understanding what guests value most and giving them more reasons to choose our restaurants. At the same time, we're expanding the reach of our brands around the world. This quarter, Burger King surpassed 13,000 restaurants outside the U.S. and Canada, while Popeyes crossed 2,000. These are meaningful milestones for both brands, but we're still in the early stages of realizing our full global potential. As our system grows, our increasing scale gives us more opportunities to share ideas, capabilities, and operational expertise across our markets. Looking at the business today, I'm encouraged by both the consistency of our results and the opportunities that are still ahead. We've built a lot of momentum this year and remain focused on creating long-term value for our franchisees and our shareholders. With that, let's turn to our segment highlights, starting with Tim Hortons, which represents roughly 41% of our operating profits. In Q3, Tim's Canada delivered 1.8% same-store sales, an encouraging improvement from the second quarter. The team executed a stronger marketing calendar, driving growth across day parts and categories. Beverages continue to be an important growth driver, with cold beverages up nearly 5% in the quarter. Our matcha offering, which launched in July, is off to a great start. Not only does it appeal to younger guests, but over two-thirds of matcha beverages are sold in the PM day part. helping us capture more demand where we've historically under indexed. And almost 75% of matcha orders include another item, supporting overall check growth. We've already expanded the platform with strawberry matcha and see significant room for further innovation. In PM food, we're also seeing growth, led by our melt platform and the return of our turkey bacon club with honey mustard. Both offerings innovate on familiar menu items guests already know and love. We also had a delicious lineup of seasonal offerings this quarter, including the return of our popular pumpkin spice beverages and baked goods. And in August, we launched a comprehensive Harry Potter Back to Hogwarts collaboration, featuring themed baked goods, cold beverages, and retail merchandise to appeal to guests of all ages. As we add menu innovation, consistent execution remains essential. We're supporting our restaurant owners with speed of service coaching, greater visibility into restaurant cleanliness, and simpler processes so teams can deliver an even better guest experience. I saw that commitment firsthand during a recent visit to Eastern Ontario, where our restaurant owners are deeply engaged in their restaurants and their local communities. We're also growing our loyalty program through partnerships that give guests more reason to choose Tim's. In September, we launched our partnership with Canadian Tire, allowing members to earn Canadian Tire money in addition to Tim's rewards. Early account linkings are ahead of our expectations, with potential access to at least 5 million additional members. We're also partnering with another iconic Canadian brand, WestJet, to bring Tim's Flight Roast to the skies beginning next month, extending our reach to Canadians when they travel. I'm looking forward to what we have planned through the year end, including a holiday family partnership and further innovation across matcha and melts. Guests can look forward to the return of more fan favorite menu items as well as a new loyalty partnership with WestJet in 2027. Taking a step back, Tim's is performing well and delivering solid results in a tough consumer environment. I'm confident in Axel and his team's ability to build on this progress, strengthening the core and balancing relevant innovation with familiar favorites, all supported by consistent restaurant execution. Now on to our international business, which represents 29% of our operating profit. Tiago and his team delivered another good quarter, with same-store sales of 3.9% and net restaurant growth of 5.6%, driving system-wide sales growth of 9%. We saw particularly strong results across several of our largest markets, including Germany, Brazil, China, Japan, and Korea. I had the opportunity to visit many of our key markets this quarter and spend time with the teams and partners driving those results. In Tokyo, I visited the Burger King Japan team, who have now delivered six consecutive quarters of double-digit same-store sales. They've also developed some of the most creative and effective marketing across our system, and we brought back several ideas that are already being implemented in other markets. Burger King Korea is also performing very well, with an impressive pace of innovation driving double-digit same-store sales in the third quarter. Later in the quarter, I visited Burger King in Scandinavia, including Norway and Sweden, as well as Germany, where Burger King just celebrated its 50th anniversary. Across all of these markets, I saw how investments in our restaurants and our teams are helping improve our guest experience. Across the international business, our local teams are finding new ways to bring guests into our restaurants, from twists on our flame grilled beef offerings to new chicken innovation. We're also increasingly taking successful ideas from one market to others, including this quarter's Dragon Ball Z partnership that we launched in over 70 markets. In September, I joined Tiago in London for the Popeyes International Convention, It was exciting to see how far the brand has come and the ambition of our franchise partners for what's next. We crossed 2,000 international restaurants this quarter and now operate in more than 50 markets, generating over $2 billion in system-wide sales. That's nearly double the sales of just two years ago and roughly seven times the level of when we acquired Popeyes in 2017. We've come a long way in a relatively short period of time. and there is an incredible opportunity ahead of us as we work to become the world's number one chicken QSR. Finally at BK China, our partners at CPE delivered a third consecutive quarter of double digit same store sales, lapping double digit growth in the prior year. This sales momentum combined with improving unit economics gives us confidence in accelerating development and returning to positive net restaurant growth this year. After spending so much time in our international markets this quarter, I came away with an even greater appreciation for the competitive advantage we've built with this business. Our local partners know how to win in their markets. We're increasingly bringing the best ideas across our system. And we're leveraging our established Burger King infrastructure to accelerate the growth of other brands like Popeyes. With significant white space remaining in almost all of our largest markets, we see a long runway ahead. Now turning to Burger King, which represents nearly 19% of our operating profit. After an awesome first half of the year, we accelerated our outperformance in the third quarter, with U.S. same-store sales up 8.4% and system-wide sales up 7.5%. We widened our gap to Burger QSR peers to nearly 10 points, and after years of hard work, we are incredibly proud to have reclaimed the number two position in the U.S. burger category. Our convention in Miami this month gave us a chance to come together and celebrate that progress. But what stood out to me was how determined our team and our franchisees are to keep pushing forward. There's no appetite for a victory lap or complacency. We still see lots of opportunities in front of us, and we're very focused on capturing them. Q3 was a good example of how we're doing that, pairing core menu elevation and family-friendly collaborations with consistent, accessible value. We continued building on the success of our elevated Whopper with popular variations like the Texas Whopper. and in September introduced the next chapter of our culinary elevation roadmap with upgraded chicken nuggets. Our new nuggets feature crispier breading, juicier chicken and more premium packaging and we paired them with a revamped sauce lineup. These improvements directly address an opportunity we identified through guest feedback and the responses exceeded our expectations. We're attracting new guests, increasing nugget incidents and closing the gap with competitors in a category that's particularly important for kids and families. Together with our Dragon Ball Z collaboration, the launch helped drive King Jr. average unit volumes to their highest level in over a decade. And with volumes still well below peak historical levels, we see considerable room for further growth. We just launched our Hello Kitty Kids Meal collaboration and have another exciting partnership planned for the holidays to further engage with families. Alongside these initiatives, our $5 duos and $7 trios continue to support steady value incidents. As we see outsized growth in more premium areas of the menu. Importantly, none of this would be possible without the commitment of our franchisees, who have continued to invest in their restaurants and operations to deliver a better guest experience. Those investments will be the focus of our next elevation chapter, highlighting the improvements we're making to restaurant image through remodels. Looking ahead, we'll continue introducing new elevation chapters at a regular cadence, each designed to address guest feedback and showcase the upgrades we're making to the Burger King experience. We are very proud of the results at Burger King that they've delivered this year. Reclaim the Flame has strengthened the foundation of the business, and Elevation is helping us bring that to life for our guests. With more work underway across our menu, operations, and restaurant image, we're confident in our ability to continue driving meaningful outperformance. Moving now to Popeyes, where same store sales were negative 1.8% this quarter. Although top-line performance is still below expectations, our work to strengthen the guest experience is gaining traction. Popeyes was the only brand in the chicken category to deliver year-over-year improvements in overall service satisfaction in each of the first three quarters of this year, led by meaningful gains in value for money and food quality. Satisfaction with our core chicken is the highest it's been on record, and we're seeing encouraging signs in our traffic trends, which have strengthened sequentially. That said, two factors weighed on our sales performance this quarter. First, we brought back our $6 big box promotion in September, which proved to be less incremental than we had hoped. Second, as part of our efforts to streamline operations and refocus on our core menu, we made a deliberate decision to scale back our wings offering. Wings add operational complexity, and simplifying the platform allows us to put greater emphasis behind the core items that define Popeyes, our bone-in chicken, tenders, and the sandwich. While this decision naturally created some year-over-year sales pressure, we think it was the right trade-off for the long-term health of the business. Given these dynamics, while we previously expected to return to positive same-store sales in the second half of this year, we now believe it will take a little bit longer than anticipated. We're not satisfied with our top-line results, but the progress we're seeing across our key focus areas, everyday value, operational execution, and product satisfaction, give me confidence that Peter and his team are making the right decisions to strengthen the underlying business and Position Popeyes for sustainable growth. Lastly, turning to Firehouse Subs, where same-store sales of 1.5% and net restaurant growth of 7.8% drove system-wide sales growth of 8.3%. The team is building excitement through a combination of menu innovation and returning favorites, like our new Smoke & Honey Melt and the fan-favorite Thanksgiving Sub, which we brought back in September. We also reached two exciting development milestones this quarter. Opening our 1500th restaurant in North America, including our 200th restaurant in Canada. With significant white space in both our home markets and abroad, we see a long runway to bring Firehouse to more guests around the world. Before I hand the call to Sami, I want to take a moment to remember Chris Sorenson, co-founder of Firehouse Subs, who recently passed. Together with his brother Robin, Chris built a brand that is passionate and committed to hearty and flavorful food, heartfelt service, and public safety. Through the Firehouse Subs Public Safety Foundation, they have already granted over $100 million to support first responders, something unheard of for a restaurant brand of our size, and a great tribute to Chris and Robin's personal generosity and care for others. Our heartfelt condolences go out to Robin, the Sorenson family, and everyone who knew and loved Chris. With that, I'll pass it over to Sami.
Sami Siddiqui
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Josh, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'll discuss our Q3 financial results Capital Structure and Capital Allocation, and Guidance for the year. We continue to make good progress against our long-term growth targets. In Q3, comparable sales of 3.8% and net restaurant growth of 3% drove system-wide sales growth of 6.2%. That translated into organic AOI growth of 6.7% and nominal adjusted EPS growth of 6.9%. Year-to-date, that brings organic AOI growth to 7.8% and nominal adjusted EPS growth to 11.1%. Organic AOI growth this quarter included approximately $11 million of tariff refunds in our Tim Hortons US CPG business related to tariffs incurred last year. This was largely offset by a $10 million organic increase in segment G&A excluding restaurant holdings. Adjusted interest expense declined by $2 million year over year and our adjusted effective tax rate was 17.4% for the quarter. This brings our year to date adjusted tax rate to 17.5% and we continue to expect an 18 to 19% rate for the full year, likely towards the lower end of that range. Turning to adjusted EPS, which increased by 6.9% this quarter to $1.10 from $1.03 last year. This was driven by AOI growth partially offset by a one cent FX headwind and a one cent impact from the year-over-year decline in restaurant holdings AOI. Excluding these impacts, adjusted EPS grew by 8.6% in the quarter. Moving to cash flow and capital allocation. We generated over $500 million of free cash flow in Q3, including the impact of $105 million of CapEx and cash inducements and a $22 million benefit from our swaps and hedges. We returned $569 million of capital to shareholders through our dividend and share repurchases, including repurchasing a total of $274 million of stock in the quarter. Year to date, we've returned $1.3 billion of capital to shareholders, including $444 million of share repurchases, and we remain on track to repurchase approximately $500 million for the full year. We ended Q3 with total liquidity of approximately $2.2 billion, including $1 billion of cash and a net leverage ratio of 4.0 times. As we discussed at our investor day, we remain committed to achieving corporate investment grade leverage by 2028 or the low to mid three times net leverage range, primarily through continued earnings growth. In early September, we reached another important milestone on that path. with Moody's upgrading our corporate rating to BA2 and our first lien secured debt to BA1. We've worked closely with the rating agencies over the past several years, and these upgrades reflect our track record of delivering on our commitment to deleverage. The current interest rate environment further reinforces why pursuing investment grade is the right decision for RBI. It will give us access to a deeper pool of capital, longer duration debt, and a lower cost of borrowing. Importantly, we also believe this will give our franchisees a competitive advantage as RBI would be one of the very few large franchise restaurant systems in the US with an investment grade rating. We've also proactively managed our interest rate exposure with the vast majority of our debt swapped to fixed, leaving less than 10% exposed to floating rates on an all-in net basis. On top of that, given our significant businesses in Canada and Europe, we've been able to take advantage of lower interest rates in those markets through cross currency swaps, effectively reducing our overall cost of debt. Together, these strategic decisions leave us well positioned to manage through today's environment while continuing to invest in our brands and return capital to shareholders. We're also making progress towards a simpler, more highly franchised business. We picked up the pace of Burger King re-franchisings in Q3, bringing our year-to-date total to 135 restaurants re-franchised through October 23rd. Our pipeline continues to develop, and we expect to re-franchise a couple hundred restaurants this year, with activity accelerating further into 2027 as we work towards sunsetting restaurant holdings by the end of 2027. Finally, I'd like to discuss our 2026 financial guidance. First, we continue to expect segment G&A excluding RH of about $600 to $620 million. Second, we continue to expect net adjusted interest expense to stay approximately flat year over year in the $500 to $520 million range. Third, we continue to expect 2026 CapEx and cash inducements, including capital expenditures, tenant inducements, and incentives to be around $400 million. We continue to expect Tim Horton's supply chain margins to be roughly in line with 2025 levels. And lastly, we continue to expect total RH AOI of roughly $10 to $20 million for the full year, down from $21 million year to date. The implied AOI loss in Q4 reflects the impact of Carroll's restaurant re-franchising and incremental investments in our international startup businesses that we expect to continue until we transition ownership to new investors. Looking back on the year so far, we've delivered great results. Above-algorithm same-store sales of 3.6%, organic AOI growth of around 8%, and over 11% adjusted EPS growth. We're on track to hit our organic AOI growth target and return over $1.6 billion of capital to shareholders this year. At the same time, we're making tangible progress towards the longer-term financial model we outlined at our investor day. with a clear path to investment grades and a simpler, more highly franchised business. I'm excited to finish the year strong and carry this momentum into 2027 as we accelerate restaurant development and move closer to our 2028 vision for the business. And with that, I'll hand it over to Patrick.
Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman
Thanks, Sami. I'll keep my comments brief today because the message is pretty simple. The plans we've put in place over the last several years are working and we're going to keep executing against them. Burger King has delivered over four years of industry outperformance, and now we've seen three consecutive quarters of truly exceptional results. We're taking share, our franchisees are investing, and the team continues to raise their standards. At this point, I think the consistency of the results is just as important as the magnitude. And when I look at what Tom and his team have planned for the next few years, I have every reason to expect this business will continue performing at a very high level. At Tim's we said last quarter that we expected results to improve in the second half and that's exactly what happened. Axel and his team made the necessary adjustments and performance improved. And it's worth remembering that Tim's has now delivered 22 consecutive quarters of positive same store sales in Canada. That's a remarkable track record for a business with Tim's market position and one that gives me a lot of confidence in its ability to keep growing. And speaking of consistency, International has also delivered 22 quarters of positive same store sales. And I still think investors underestimate just how strong this business is. We have more than a dozen international businesses that are not only generating More than 100 million in annual system-wide sales, but also growing at double-digit rates. And they're doing this with a healthy balance of same-store sales and new restaurant development. Our international growth isn't concentrated in just a few markets either. Nearly 45% of sales come from outside our 10 largest businesses. Even in some of our most established markets, We're nowhere near the number of restaurants we believe we can ultimately support. I don't think there's another global QSR company that matches our combination of scale, diversification, and growth potential. Of course, there are always areas where we have more work to do. That's the nature of this business, and we should never be satisfied with where we are. There's nothing particularly complicated about our priorities. We want to keep improving our restaurants, growing our brands, and delivering against the financial commitments that we've made. We're doing those things and I expect us to continue doing them. With that, Rebecca, let's open the line for questions.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from Dennis Geiger with UBS. Dennis, please go ahead.
Dennis Geiger
UBS
Thanks, and good morning, guys. I wanted to ask a bit more about the sustainability of the Burger King momentum in the US, given continued industry outperformance in the quarter and the ongoing strength against the execution of your plans in a difficult environment. You all commented on the confidence and the continued momentum, but can you speak a little more to the biggest opportunities that remain from here, perhaps sort of medium term into 27 and even maybe longer term, as you think about continued upgrades, whatever's left on operations, maybe additional day part focuses, et cetera. Thank you.
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Dennis, good morning. I think as we, As we look at the Burger King business, it's really impressive. Tom, the team, the franchisees, they've been doing a really nice job across the board. And I think the great part about it is that it's underpinned by consistent improvements in the fundamentals. And throughout the year, the results have been really great based on those. But as we look forward, I would say over the next months, 2027, and really beyond, as you referenced, there's a lot more to do on all of those fronts. I think about things like our remodels. We have done a lot of remodels. They're going great. The uplifts are really good. But we're still probably around 60% of the system done. So we've got a number of years in front of us and a lot of stores that still need to get to the right image there. So I expect that'll be a driver for quite some time. I think we've made a ton of progress on operations. We're much more consistent than we were three or four years ago. but there are still pockets where we're not there and we've got our eyes on those and I think that'll probably take us another year or two to get some of those to the right place. And I think what you've seen this year in terms of menu elevation is great. We've worked on the Whopper, we now worked on Nuggets but the reality is there are a lot of other places in the menu where we're still really excited about how we can respond to the feedback we've gotten from guests and make it even better. I tell you, Tom, Patrick, and I, we spent a lot of time in the test kitchen. And I'll tell you, the challenge is not finding other things we want to elevate. It's figuring out how we sequence them. And I'll tell you, those are going to stretch well into 2028 and beyond. And that's why we're so excited. So you can kind of tell across all of the core workstreams, there's a lot of progress. But I think we have multiple years left in front of us across each of those core workstreams. where we're going to be able to surprise and excite our guests in new ways and keep driving sustained outperformance. Dennis, it's Patrick.
Patrick Doyle
Executive Chairman
I'll share a statistic that I love. Three years ago our Burger King was in the consideration set of 70% of consumers. So 30% of people did not consider Burger King when they were driving down the street and saw different options. That number now is 78%. So it just means the brand is becoming more relevant again. People are thinking about us because of the improvements that we've made, because of how we are listening to them about ways to improve the business. And as Josh said, there are so many more ways that we know that we can still improve what we're doing. But guests are responding and we have a much larger group of guests now who will even think about coming to us to give us their business. And so it's just exciting. There are just a lot of things going the right direction and so much more that we know we can do.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from David Palmer with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
David Palmer
Evercore ISI
Great, thank you. And congrats particularly to the Burger King US team. It's been fantastic with the momentum. I wanted to ask you about international. Obviously a little bit lower visibility area for the US investor, including Canada. Could you talk about how the markets, the environment, might be shifting and how that's influencing the general QSR space in your key markets. And maybe could you speak to market share trends, key initiatives in the key markets that really matter for BKA International, but also Tim's up in Canada. Thanks so much.
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
Good morning. In terms of the overall environment, it doesn't feel like it's changed too much across our international businesses. I would say it's more stable. Maybe on the margin things feel a little bit better in Asia and there's maybe some macro headwinds going on in parts of Western Europe. Maybe that's the only shift a little bit versus a year ago. I think the big new things in our business in terms of what's shifting though are a couple that come to mind at least. One, our China business has been getting an awful lot better. That's probably one of the biggest changes over the last year or two. We went from a pretty tough spot to now where we really feel like we're on the front foot and have the ability to see a pretty bright future, especially for the Burger King business over the next couple of years. The other big thing that's changing, I referenced a little bit of it in the prepared remarks. We just had this Popeyes International Summit in London where we got together all of our 50 markets around the world outside of the US and Canada for Popeyes and things are getting a lot better in the Popeyes business. Those businesses, we have so many that are really seeing their sales take off and the margin profiles improve and therefore the paybacks on a lot of those new and fast-growing markets are getting better and better. So I think that's seen a big positive evolution over the last couple of years. And I think with that, a lot of our biggest markets I think we're doing well on market share. Everywhere from places like France where I'd say the macro environment is tough and maybe the same store sales environment can be challenging. We're taking a lot of share there. And if you look at some of the biggest APAC markets, places like Japan or Korea, I think we're taking a lot of market share in those. So I think we have a lot of big markets across international where both our initiatives and the relative market share are doing well in markets that are tough and in markets where the macro is a little bit easier. With regards to, I'll switch now to Tim's Canada as well and give you a little bit of sense of the macro and kind of relative performance there. I would characterize the macro in Canada as being relatively stable over the past few quarters. If you look at anything from employment levels to inflation, interest rates, it's been pretty stable. So I think I wouldn't characterize that market as changing too much. The one thing that's changed a little bit in the near term recently is obviously gas prices are up a little bit. And we see a little bit of an impact from that. We can kind of see it in some of our drive-through and especially more rural markets. If you think of the places where people have longer drive times and they're being mindful about the kilometers they're driving, you can see a little bit of an impact there. But obviously you can see we still did pretty well and I would say relative to the other major QSR brands in Canada, we're relatively in line for the quarter. Thank you.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from Brian Bittner with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Brian Bittner
Oppenheimer
Hey, good morning and again, congratulations on the results this morning. I wanted to go back to Burger King. I think it's It's pretty clear that the business has momentum now and the turnaround question marks are really no longer a question. So kind of my question centers on really the opportunity from here relative to the AUVs you're seeing at Burger King now. You're generating around 1.7 to 1.8 million AUVs. What does your data and analysis suggest the opportunity is against this for the entire system so we can maybe start to think about the big picture opportunity moving forward for Burger King. And just also, there's been some articles about potentially extending the remodel timeline for Burger King. Is there anything, any tidbits you can give us on that? Thanks.
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Brian. Thanks for that. A couple of thoughts on Burger King here. In terms of where we can take the AUV, I'll highlight at least two things for you. One, as I mentioned, we're still working on remodels, and those remodels have a really big uplift. So I think as we move from call it 60% remodeled towards 85% and beyond, I think that's going to be a big driver. We know those remodeled restaurants, especially the sizzles, are doing north of $2 million. So that's a very clear opportunity that we're going after over the next couple of years. Another interesting one, as we go through elevation, I mentioned we've worked on Whopper and Nuggets now. The exciting part about that is we're seeing a big uplift in the AUVs in our core. So our core Whopper AUVs are up double digits year on year. Our King Junior, so our kids meals are up 40% and our Nuggets are up more than 35%. So I think that gives you a sense of the power of elevating your core menu. and I think that's a lot of where we'll continue to go over the next couple of years. If you can do things that make the core menu items that people love even better and get people really excited to come back and give you another try on the core menu and you can deliver those kinds of uplifts across the core menu, that's what allows you to, I think, see a path to a really great business in the future with much higher AUDs. So those are a couple of the things that are probably highest on my mind.
Sami Siddiqui
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Brian, I can jump in on your question around the timing of remodels. And I think we've talked about this a little bit in the past. It's just beef costs and record high beef inflation has been a headwind to the system's profitability. So despite the amazing progress on the top line, our franchisees have had to manage through this. The good news is we're starting to see a little bit of relief on that front, and we expect to see a little bit more next year. and I think that will naturally cause the pace of the remodels to pick up. The top line's going really well. There's a ton of momentum, a ton of excitement from franchisees. We were just at Burger King convention a couple weeks ago and the energy was great around the remodels. And as Josh mentioned, the average AUVs on sizzle remodels is around $2.2 million plus. So you ask about getting that 1.7 or 1.8 million up, remodeling your restaurant is one of the best ways to do it and we anticipate You know, that may take a little bit longer than expected, but not considerably. And we think we'll get most of the system to a modern image by 2028, 2029 in that general timeframe.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from Danilo Gargiulo with Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Danilo Gargiulo
Bernstein
Great. Thank you. You know, I was wondering if you can contextualize the performance of Tim Hortons relative to your expectations, and specifically, in which part do you see an outperformance, and where do you see more opportunities to maybe align with peers or exceed your current performance going forward? Thank you.
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
Morning, Danilo. So I think that Tim's performance It was relatively in line with the peers. And I'm happy that we improved from where we were in Q2. That's good. I think our goal, though, is to be consistently outperforming the peers. And that's the goal that we have and Axel has. I think everybody on the team is searching for. If you look at how we performed this quarter, actually, if you look across day parts, we grew across all day parts. So it was pretty consistent. Frankly, across day parts and menu categories, they were all positive. So kind of in a similar range across the menu. What was better, I would say, sequentially was our performance in PM food. So that had been softer in kind of Q1, got closer to flat in Q2, and now we went positive in Q3. And I think that was the result of some of the better PM innovation that we did across things like melts. So I think a balance in better performance in Q3, though our ambition is to go farther. If I had to characterize what I think we'll be focused on going forward, we're going to keep working on growing in cold beverage. You've started to see us innovate faster in cold beverage. We talked about that a bit last quarter. I think you've seen since that we brought out Macho, which is a great addition, and already innovated on that again. And we've also brought energy infusers with Monster. So we've started to enter some of those new categories that are very incremental to our business. bring in new guests, kind of a different guest demographic, and they bring in more guests in the afternoon, which is great for our business. It's been a goal of ours. So we're going to see more innovation on the cold web side, bringing things that are new and exciting. And we'll also continue to innovate on PM Food. I think we've started to figure out more and more what's working there. One of the things that's very clear to us is when we bring back guest favorites from the past, we can innovate on them, make them even better. that's something that's really invading or that's really resonating with our Tim Horton's guests and I think you can expect to see more of that later this year and into 2027.
Danilo Gargiulo
Bernstein
Thank you.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from Lauren Silberman with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Lauren Silberman
Deutsche Bank
Thanks and congrats on the performance. I want to ask on just the UniGrowth side and Expand perhaps a little bit about how you're thinking about closing out 26 and any reason to 27, just broadly given the macro cost interest rates. I guess what's the general franchisee sentiment and appetite to accelerate development and any sort of market or brand color would be helpful. Thank you.
Sami Siddiqui
Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Lauren. Good morning. It's Sami. I can take that one. Look, I think, you know, we were pleased to see a little bit of acceleration in the unit growth this quarter, so we got to around 3% unit growth. on a trailing basis. I think, you know, we've talked about this year we would accelerate off of last year, which is what we thought was a low. And, you know, as you know, Q4, the year is always back in waiting. So Q4 is a very, very busy quarter for us as we open a bunch of restaurants. I think as you go kind of around the world, and of course international is the biggest driver of our growth, I think what's really encouraging for us and promising is As you look at our top 10 growth markets, we're seeing the paybacks get even better. We've talked about paybacks being around four and a half years in our top 10 growth market. It's even ticking down. It's a lot of the markets that Josh had mentioned, markets like Japan and Korea and even India, you're seeing paybacks get better. So that helps, I think, for this year, but that really helps set the runway for the longer term. I think if you kind of think about the home markets, there's obviously puts and takes, I think. you know we we've talked about Tim's Canada accelerating and we still feel good about that uh both this year and and and really in the next year and Firehouse is doing doing great you know sub four-year paybacks on those those units and and we feel uh really good about that I think kind of on the other side of it you know Popeyes we expect will be a little bit softer than than where we were last year um on the unit growth side so I think that's a that's sort of a The puts and takes around the world, but we feel pretty good about the development pipeline. We're spending a lot of time with our franchisees and they're excited. Ultimately, it's about profitability and getting the paybacks where they need to be and franchisees will develop.
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, the only other thing I would add is one of the big drivers going into 27 and beyond is Burger King China further ramping up. And I think the important drivers of that are always going to be how's the business doing and That's why we're really pleased with the performance so far this year. We're doing double digit comps on top of double digits the prior year. That obviously has a big impact on improving the unit economics and makes it make even more sense for our partners to ramp up the pace of growth. So the performance there gives us even more confidence about how we'll be able to accelerate further in 27.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from John Ivanko with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
John Ivankoe
JPMorgan
Hi, thank you. In your prepared remarks, you talked about Burger King, I think specifically Burger King, achieving global scale to where it really made sense to kind of have it as a information sharing type of organization where you can pull the ideas out of one market, apply it globally, or at least apply it to the U.S., I wanted to see if there's anything specific, whether it's coming quarters or coming years, that we could potentially take a winning idea, for example, that might be occurring in Europe or parts of Asia, and bring it to the U.S. that might make a tangible difference for customers and employees. Anything specific that we can talk about there? Thank you.
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
Morning, John. I'm really happy with how Tiago and the team are managing, how we're doing this internationally. I think it's really powerful in that we give a lot of leeway to our big master franchisees to innovate and come up with new ideas. And we have some terrific CMOs who are very creative and do really cool stuff. And what we do is we try not to force a top-down idea. We let ideas bubble up. But once we find something that we think is really interesting, We're very open about sharing those ideas, and we do it in a lot of different ways. And then we let markets pick what's relevant to them, what ideas from other countries can make a lot of sense. And sometimes you have to adapt those a little bit. Some things that will work in Western Europe might not work in some of our Asia markets. So we're choiceful in kind of sharing those things. A couple of the ones that we've done in recent years are things like our gourmet series, some of our bigger patty burgers. That's an idea that started in a couple markets and it has expanded. We've also done some stuff like, you know, France came up with sliders. They call them baby burgers. And some other markets have chosen to use that. And we've found some innovation around sauces, too, in some of our markets that others have grabbed onto. I'm not ready to share exactly which ones of those are going to come to the U.S. next year, but stay tuned. We hope to bring some exciting stuff in 2027. Thank you so much.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from Sarah Senatore with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Thank you.
Sarah Senatore
Bank of America
I wanted to ask about a comment I think, Josh, that you made about working with the Tim's franchisees to work on like speed of service and visibility into restaurant cleanliness. I guess maybe two questions. Is this in response to customer feedback or more just continuous improvement? And then more broadly, you know, as they think about how important the TIMS business is to the portfolio, you know, you're talking about kind of 2% same store sales, which, you know, is a nice improvement of what you've seen, but I would say probably pretty consistent with the long-term history of TIMS. And then, you know, fairly modest unit growth, I guess, You know, what is the sort of ceiling on how fast Tim's could grow? Just because as 40% of EBITDA, you know, it matters a lot to achieving, you know, that sort of 8% plus operating profit target you have.
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, good morning, Sarah. So first on some of the operational priorities, I would tell you Axel is always focused on getting better. You know, he grew up in restaurants. He's all over the details and he always wants us to get better and better. And so we're always listening to guests, but also observing things as we spend a lot of time in the restaurants ourselves, as we can tell. And we're always looking for any angle on things that we can get better at. So those are a couple of the priorities that we've highlighted for ourselves this year and into next to kind of refocus on some of those elements and make sure that we're exactly where we want to be. and I love Axel's focus on it and he and his team are all over it. In terms of the growth profile of the Tim's business, I'll go through each of the elements that you mentioned. First on the net restaurant growth, we still think that there is space for more Tim's across Canada and that's why you've seen us ramping up the pace of restaurant growth. We did that this year and I expect we'll grow a bit more. So I think we'll have some structural unit growth within just the Canada business. And then on top of that, we certainly intend and have a goal to grow faster than the 2% over time. We want to be growing structurally into the PM day part with cold beverages and growing our share of things like lunch and dinner food. We need to make progress on those, but that's a big driver of growing faster than the 2% or so where we are today. And the other piece of that TIMSS business is the U.S. That's the other big long-term structural growth driver, where as we do a better and better job with TIMSS in the U.S., that can be an add-on to the pace of growth. So those are probably the three biggest levers I would think about to have TIMSS contribute to our overall growth algorithm.
Sami Siddiqui
Chief Financial Officer
And Lauren, I would just add that a couple of things. One is as we think about where a bunch of our CapEx is going in our long-term CapEx outlook, about half of the CapEx is actually going into TIMS because we have a pretty sizable property business. So as we think about the ROIs on that capital, the ROIs and the flow-through to AOI tend to be very good on those real estate deals. And as we think about not only growing, as Josh mentioned, but growing through real estate makes tons of sense by being on those head leases. We also have ancillary businesses that are just fantastic businesses. Tim's CPG Business is a fantastic business. We're number one on retail shelves in Canada. and Josh mentioned the Tim's US business as well. So there are a lot of other businesses that are connected to that top line growth that we feel really good about.
Sarah Senatore
Bank of America
Thank you.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from Gregory Frankfurt with Guggenheim. Please go ahead.
Gregory Francfort
Guggenheim
Hey, maybe, Sami, the 8% profit growth that you guys have underlined for the foreseeable future, Do you see, as you kind of re-franchise some of the restaurants, do you see yourself dipping below that in the next year or two? And can you maybe just help frame that up kind of numbers-wise? And then my question, I guess more broadly, is PIMS in Canada, as you accelerate unit growth to maybe 1%, how do you gain confidence that maybe that won't be cannibalistic to your existing base and it will be incremental, kind of maybe where you're growing, or do you have an expectation for a cannibalization on that number? That'd be helpful. Thank you.
Sami Siddiqui
Chief Financial Officer
Hey, morning, Greg. Yeah, on the 8% algorithm, I think a couple things on sort of maintaining that 8%. First off, year to date, we've been right around 8%, and we're really proud over, as you think about the last two or three years, we've been around that 8%. Now, as you think about restaurant holdings and how the re-franchisings impact that, when we report, we obviously report on the organic five franchisor segments. So RH is excluded from that. And we have an intercompany royalty and property set up. So you see the royalties and property in the kind of core segments. Now it will get a little bit trickier when we end up sunsetting RH, which will be at the end of 2027. And we've talked about a little bit absorbing those restaurants, the remaining Carol's restaurants into the Burger King US and Canada P&L. We anticipate that'll be between 300 and 500 restaurants when we absorb it into the P&L, probably getting towards the lower end of that range. So as those come into the core, which would be technically in 2028, they would impact it. But the performance at Carroll's Restaurant Holdings has been fantastic, and we feel really good about the direction of that business. From a bottom line EPS perspective, We anticipate re-franchising to be a couple pennies of dilution this year to the EPS, but from a broader 8% algorithm perspective, we really are focused on the core franchise segments rather than orange.
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
And then to your question, Greg, on the Tim's Restaurant growth in Canada, a lot of that growth is coming in places that might have new developments, and that can come across the country. So you can think about Maybe a new residential development that's happening on the outskirts of Toronto that has a retail plaza attached to it. We want to be there. If there's going to be a big community and a big retail center, we want to be there. Whether it's in Toronto or out west in Alberta, there's a lot of that construction happening and we're going to want to be part of it. Each time we do that, we're doing pretty detailed cannibalization modeling to make sure that those units are not going to excessively take away sales from any other units around them. So we look at it very carefully to make sure that the returns make a lot of sense for us and the franchisees. And I think our team is doing a great job of that.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from Andrew Charles with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Andrew Charles
TD Cowen
Great, thank you. Sami, I wanted to ask about international AOI. You know, the segment of same-store sales and development remains on track, but the flow-through to AOI wasn't as strong as we expected in the third quarter. So I'm just curious, with international AOI margins decelerating over the last three quarters, is this explained by any one-time items, or perhaps the growth in the segment is skewing to lower royalty and lower volume markets?
Sami Siddiqui
Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Andrew, good morning. Yeah, actually, you know, if you think about, first off, the international segment, The business performance has been fantastic from a top line perspective and a bottom line perspective. As you think about the flow through this quarter from the top line to the bottom line, There was a little bit of some one-time noise in the numbers. I think we talked about around $10 million of G&A increases across the consolidated business. About half of that was due to some one-time expenses, legal expenses that were concentrated in our international business. Those are one-time, those are not expected to recur. So I think that might be what you're alluding to as you think about the flow through for the quarter. Thank you.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from Chris O'Call with Baird. Please go ahead.
Chris O'Call
Baird
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys. I had a follow-up question to an earlier one on Thames, Canada. You know, we've seen some signs of softer start here in October in the U.S. Are you seeing anything similar across the industry in Canada and Also, if you could just provide some more color on what drove the pickup and same-store sales at Tim's Canada and maybe how confident you are that that momentum can continue as comparisons ease.
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Chris. Good morning. We haven't seen a big change in the Canada performance recently, so nothing new to call out in the last month or so. They're pretty stable, I would say. In terms of the big drivers, so I would say that The couple big ones are some of the success on cold beverages. Things like matcha, it turned out to be really incremental. We're bringing in new guests that are generally younger. They skew more female. They come in the afternoon more often, and it's a little bit higher check as you've seen with a lot of the cold bed. Interesting thing we've realized with matcha, it peaks on the weekends. So it's a pretty different behavioral profile from our traditional kind of hot brewed coffee in the morning. So that one's kind of interesting. And then we also just recently launched our energy infusers with Monster Zero, which is the most popular energy drink in Canada. And that's been a big hit too. Again, kind of trying to drive the business with younger guests and kind of getting outside our core demographic during our lower traffic period. Those couple of things have been decent AUVs, but highly incremental, and that's helping us to drive a bit of incremental growth. The other big piece is just more success on the food side. That's something that we've been working on figuring out for a couple of years now. It's a category that was negative for us earlier in the years, and it's kind of stepped up progressively through the year. from Q1 to Q2, and now in Q3, we really started to see some growth out of that. So I would say those two were the biggest contributors, and they're informing a lot of our thinking about where we go from here and what we're going to work on next year in 2027. Great. Thanks.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from Brian Harbour with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Brian Harbour
Morgan Stanley
Thanks. Good morning, guys. When you think about these collaborations, I think clearly they can work very well. I know some are kind of backing off them, some I think still continue to like those. What's your kind of philosophy on that? Do you still view this as a good way to bring in maybe some of those lapsed users to Burger King? Do you think you'll maintain this pace as you go forward? Because look, that's something that's important to families. What's your thinking about that over time?
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
More, Brian. It's a really interesting topic and one that I think our Burger King team has done a great job on and you saw Tim's now working on. I think there's a couple things that I think are critical to them working really well. First, you've got to pick the right ones that match, that are kind of Good brand collaborations for each of the brands. And that'll be different for Burger King versus a Tim Horton. So you've got to pick things that have brand fit. And we've tried to pick ones that, where possible, where they can appeal to a large guest demographic. So some of them appeal to kids, but it's even better if they can have multi-generational appeal. And I think some of the ones that have really done great have had that multi-generational appeal. The other thing that I have to give the BK team and Tom and Joel a lot of credit for is I think we're starting to do these IP collaborations very well. We're extremely thoughtful about the menu innovation. Our culinary teams do a fantastic job with a lot of creative ideas about how we tie the two brands together, and we do that across a variety of menu items that give people a lot of reasons to come in. But we're thoughtful about other aspects too, things like the packaging. If you go back to our SpongeBob collaboration in last December, we did some really neat things on the packaging. So I think our teams have just been really thoughtful about being comprehensive and doing very high quality, very collaborative work on how we execute those, and that drives interest. To your point, to one of the points you made, Brian, It's really valuable, I think, with guests in two respects. One, we're bringing a bunch of people back to the restaurant. We might give them a reason to visit that they didn't have before that causes them to give us another try. And a lot of those folks are coming back to the restaurants and they're very pleasantly surprised with the changes they see, whether that's a new restaurant or improved and more consistent operations. So I think it's a great way to bring lapsed guests back. And one of the most exciting things that we've seen over this past year is our retention and revisit rates with Burger King have improved markedly, which I think is a very clear sign that when we bring people back, the underlying operations improvements are causing them to return again. The last piece I would say on this is that those IP collaborations are a big part of our effort to drive the family business. And I mentioned some of the stats on the King Jr. meals, but we're really trying to bring families back into the restaurant. I think we're seeing some early success, but There is a long way to go on that front. We have a lot of different initiatives aimed at it, and I think that could be a driver for many years to come.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from Chris Correll with KeyBank Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Chris Correll
KeyBanc Capital Markets
Hi. Good morning, and thanks for the question. Josh, you highlighted the rapid growth of Popeyes International system-wide sales over the last couple of years. But, Sami, you did mention Popeye's unit growth maybe a little softer versus last year, if I heard that correctly. Can you help us understand the dynamics there and maybe provide any additional or updated thoughts on how you're thinking about Popeye's contribution to international unit growth over the medium to long term?
Sami Siddiqui
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Chris, thank you for the question. And I should clarify, I think when I was speaking to unit growth as we kind of approach year end, I was talking about Popeyes in North America, which would be which would decelerate a little bit from kind of where we landed last year. But as we think about the Popeyes international business, it's been an incredible growth story. Really, if you think about actually, if you go back to when Popeyes became part of RBI in 2017 and you look at Thank you for joining us. of Western QSR Brands, and it really just continues to build on momentum in markets like the UK, in India, in really across a bunch of the markets that we've been entering, including now China, where we're seeing a lot of positive traction. As you know, we took ownership of that business a little while ago. This was our first quarter where we saw positive four-wall margins, and we're starting to see paybacks in that business get a lot better. So we're really, really excited for what's happening on the Popeyes International side. I think our offering and our differentiated chicken is something that guests in these markets want. We see it in the long lines and the amazing guest reviews and feedback when we enter. And we're going to continue hitting the gas on Popeyes International. I think in the path that we laid out to 5% unit growth, continuing to accelerate Popeyes in the international markets is a big part of that growth.
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, if I could just add a couple, just on the international a little bit further. I'd say some of the markets that are starting to get to scale are seeing really tremendous results. Places like Brazil and India are Central European markets. Those markets are doing really remarkable levels of same-store sales, and their restaurant-level margins are getting better and better. It's something we saw when we were in London with all the partners there. I expect to see those markets continue to grow a lot and now we're adding more and more markets every year as there's a lot of enthusiasm and demand to be part of the Popeyes International system. So I think if anything, that Popeyes International business will become a bigger and bigger contributor to our restaurant growth over the next couple of years.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Josh for closing remarks.
Josh Kobza
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you all very much for joining us today. We're very pleased with the results for the quarter and thankful to all of our teams, to our franchisees for the great work that they're doing all around the world. We appreciate your time. Have a great day and we'll talk to you next quarter.
Rebecca
Conference Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.